486
FXAK67 PAJK 111805
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1005 AM AKDT SAT JUL 11 2026
MORNING UPDATE INCLUDING 18Z TAFS
FOG HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS
MOST OF THE SOUTHERN REGION AS DAY TIME HEATING HAS BEGUN. A RIDGE
OF HIGHER PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GULF CONTINUING TO BRING A
MARINE LAYER INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS.
WINDS REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE BELOW 10 KTS.
AVIATION...18Z TAFS
VARIABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE DUE TO AN AREA OF HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE GULF AND
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO BRING CONFLICTING LOW AND HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION. LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE GULF INTO ICY STRAIT AND THROUGH N LYNN CANAL
ALLOWING FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS MORNING.
AREAS JUNEAU SOUTHWARD HAVE SEEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
MORNING AS THE LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE DISSIPATED FROM DAYTIME
HEATING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE SOME BROKEN CLOUDS LATER
THIS MORNING OR THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT, FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO RETURN AS RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA.
FOG IS AGAIN MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN AREAS INCLUDING
PETERSBURG, THE KETCHIKAN AREA, AND PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND.
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- A MARINE LAYER IS BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND COASTAL AREAS.
- SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
SHORT TERM
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF HAIDA GWAII AND ONE
OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA ARE WORKING IN TANDEM TO
RESPECTIVELY PULL AND PUSH MOISTURE ACROSS THE BORDER INTO
SOUTHEAST ALASKA THIS MORNING. WHILE THE ONE OVER BC LOOKS TO
SUSTAIN ITSELF A BIT LONGER, THE ONE DOWN OFF HAIDA GWAII LOOKS
TO WEAKEN AND RETREAT SOUTHWARD TODAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL HELP
TO LIMIT SHOWERS OVER THE REGION TODAY, ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ALOFT. OVERALL THIS SHOULD HELP TO GRADUALLY THIN OUT
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY, PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS.
ON THE OTHER HAND, SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN CANADA IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO ADVECT OVER THE REGION, HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP SKIES HAZY WHERE
THEY MAY OTHERWISE HAVE BEEN CLEAR. THIS SMOKE HAZE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
INTERIOR. WITH RIDGING BUILDING AT THE SURFACE AND DAYTIME HEATING
OVER THE INTERIOR, LARGE SCALE SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG LYNN CANAL BY THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE,
OUTSIDE OF SOME LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY CALM.
A WEAK FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA SUNDAY WILL PUSH
THE RIDGE AXIS FURTHER EAST, CAUSING A MORE SOUTHERLY SHIFT IN
WINDS OVER THE REGION. A WEAK TROUGH AHEAD OF THIS FRONT COULD
ALSO BRING ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE OUTER COAST AND ICY
STRAIT CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM... /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
SET UP WEST OF ANCHORAGE AND LEAD TO A FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN
FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH
NEXT NEXT WEEK TO BE FROM YAKUTAT TO THE WEST, WHERE TOTALS WILL
LIKELY BE UP TO 1.5". BASED ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW, THERE
COULD BE SOME STRONGER WINDS EARLY MONDAY MORNING NEAR ICY BAY
(UP TO 25 KTS).
AS A LOW PRESSURE STALLS OUT TO THE WEST, IT WILL LEAD TO ON SHORE
FLOW AND KEEP CHANCES FOR CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE FORECAST. IF SOME
ADDITIONAL CLEARING IS ABLE TO OCCUR, THEN TEMPERATURES COULD
RISE THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 60S, BUT SOME 70S
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE GULF AS HIGHER PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. WINDS REMAIN
ON THE LIGHTER SIDE BELOW 15 KTS THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF. AT THIS TIME,
SUNDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE.
STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE FAR OFF SHORE WATERS AND
THE NORTHERN GULF, NEAR KAYAK ISLAND.
THESE AREAS ARE LIKELY TO SEE WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KTS AND
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. ALONG WITH WINDS, SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FT ACROSS THE GULF. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL ONCE AGAIN THEN DIMINISH MONDAY.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
INNER CHANNELS. THERE ARE SOME AREAS OF ELEVATED WINDS OF 5 TO 10
KTS AROUND POINT COUVERDEN THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
DIMINISH WITH WIDESPREAD WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS BY TOMORROW MORNING.
AN AREA OF HIGHER PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE AREA TOMORROW. THIS
WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS OF
INCREASED WINDS. STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER N LYNN CANAL,
ESPECIALLY THROUGHOUT TAIYA INLET. TAIYA INLET SPECIFICALLY COULD
SEE WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KTS
POSSIBLE. THE TREND OF STRONGER AFTERNOON WINDS IN N LYNN CANAL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE LOCALIZED
AREAS OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ652.
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...MUSALL
AVIATION...EAB
MARINE...BEZENEK
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