543
FXAK67 PAJK 121714
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
914 AM AKDT SUN JUL 12 2026
UPDATE
FORECAST LARGELY REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. WE MADE
A FEW MINOR UPDATES TO TODAY'S SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. WINDS NEAR
ELDRED ROCK INCREASED SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED AND REMAIN
AROUND 20 KTS THIS MORNING. WE ARE ANTICIPATING THESE WINDS TO
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAY AND ALSO INCREASE OVER THE TAIYA
INLET AREA INTO SKAGWAY.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
A MARINE LAYER IS SLOWLY
PUSHING BACK ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING, PRIMARILY IMPACTING PAYA, PAHN, PAGS, AND
PAKW. THIS MARINE LAYER IS MAINLY IMPACTING CIGS REDUCING THEM TO
AOB 2500 FT. AS THE MARINE LAYER RECEDES, THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
IS THE MOST LIKELY TO IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY SEE
ONLY BRIEF IMPROVEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY. ALONG WITH THIS MARINE
LAYER, PERIODS OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. NO LARGE CHANGE IN CIGS OR VIS IS EXPECTED WITH
THESE SHOWERS. VIS REDUCTIONS ARE PROBABLE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING
WITH THE RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER. MEANWHILE, WEAK RIDGING IS
BUILDING OVER THE REGION. THIS, COMBINED WITH A SOUTHWARD- PUSHING
THERMAL TROUGH IN CANADA AND A LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN GULF, WILL STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
INCREASE WINDS IN LYNN CANAL AND SITES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TODAY. LASTLY, WITH POTENTIAL CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 600 AM AKDT SUN JUL 12 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY SLOWLY PUSH BACK INLAND OVER
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY.
- AREAS OF HAZE WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION INTO
SUNDAY DUE TO WILDFIRES IN CANADA.
- A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY, BUT
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM.../ THROUGH TUESDAY / PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED TODAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE START OF THE WEEK. THE
RIDGE WHICH EARLIER AS LEADING TO NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE COASTAL
AREAS HAS SHIFTED AND AS RESULT WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHERLY AND MORE ON OR ALONG SHORE FOR THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST.
NO BIG WEATHER SYSTEMS TO START WITH IN THE FORECAST ONLY SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY, PRIMARILY FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. THE
RIDGE NOT MOVING VERY FAR EITHER THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK BUT
THE FRONTAL BAND OVER THE WESTERN GULF LOOKS TO BE MOVING RAIN TO
THE CENTRAL GULF MAYBE AS FAR EAST AS YAKUTAT BY TUESDAY. FOR THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE CLOUD COVER MAY BE A BIT MORE BROKEN UP AS THE
RIDGE SUPPORTS SOME MINOR CLEARING. THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE HIGHS
50S TO 60S WHILE THE SOUTHERN CLOSER TO 60S TO MAYBE 70 FOR THE
REGION.
LONG TERM... / TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN THE BERING SEA WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER, AND SEND DISTURBANCES
TOWARD ANCHORAGE; WHICH IS WHERE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED. MOST OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS WITH ON
SHORE FLOW, BUT WEST OF YAKUTAT COULD SEE RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO
1.5". WITH THE DISTURBANCE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, EASTERLY WINDS
UP TO 30 KTS AND WAVES UP TO 10 FEET ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN ICY BAY
AND KAYAK ISLAND.
BY FRIDAY, THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE BERING WILL MAKE ITS
WAY INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE TROUGH IS PREDICTED TO BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED, WHICH IS A PATTERN THAT TYPICALLY LEADS TO
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN CANADA. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE
TO COME OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS, THERE MAY BE SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER OVER THE PANHANDLE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW
THIS FAR OUT, BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN GULF
COAST SHIFT SOUTHERLY AND WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO WESTERN GULF. STRONGEST WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE FAR OFF SHORE WATERS AND THE NORTHERN GULF,
NEAR KAYAK ISLAND. THESE AREAS ARE LIKELY TO SEE WINDS INCREASE TO
20 KTS AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
FURTHER EAST, SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL FORM A BARRIER JET
SET UP ALONG THE ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING REGION OUT TO 15NM. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS ZONE FROM LATE
TUESDAY TO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALONG WITH WINDS, SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT ACROSS THE GULF, WITH A GROWING LIKELIHOOD 9 FT
WAVES NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION. WINDS AND SEAS WILL ONCE
AGAIN THEN DIMINISH WEDNESDAY.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
CALM WITHIN THE INNER CHANNELS, AND UP TO 10KTS NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES, THIS MORNING. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE WITH THE STRONGEST OVER NORTH LYNN CANAL. FURTHER NORTH,
INTO TAIYA INLET, IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE WINDS INCREASE TO 20
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL
WEAKEN, BUT REMAIN ELEVATED AROUND 10 KTS IN LYNN CANAL. THIS
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS A
SEASONABLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE DUE TO RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN REGION AND THERMAL
TROUGHING IN BRITISH COLUMBIA. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF LOCALIZED AREAS OF STRONGER WINDS. A LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN GULF TODAY, THOUGH BRINGING MINIMAL IMPACTS TO
WINDS AND SEAS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ652.
SHORT TERM...MJB
LONG TERM...MUSALL
AVIATION...EAB/BAS
MARINE...BAS
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