466
FXAK67 PAJK 130002
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
402 PM AKDT SUN JUL 12 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- A MARINE LAYER WILL GRADUALLY PUSH BACK INLAND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, INCLUDING
YAKUTAT.
- A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE KENAI
PENINSULA ON TUESDAY, BRINGING INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A WEAK RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION, RESULTING IN A MORE SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WIND PATTERN. WHILE SKIES GENERALLY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY,
THERE HAVE BEEN CONSIDERABLE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE. THESE BREAKS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. HAZE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES ALSO
REMAINS OVER THE AREA, MAINLY FROM JUNEAU NORTHWARD, BUT THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MUCH OF THE HAZE AND LOFTED SMOKE WILL
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE, A THERMAL TROUGH OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA, COMBINED WITH
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF, HAS TIGHTENED THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT, RESULTING IN INCREASED WINDS ACROSS LYNN CANAL AND THE
SURROUNDING AREA. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING BEFORE EASING SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE, WHERE WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT, PATCHY FOG MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING, WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WHERE CLEARER SKIES THIS EVENING
WILL FAVOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES AND POTENTIAL FOR A MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLE, INCLUDING THE YAKUTAT AREA. THE
MARINE LAYER WILL ALSO GRADUALLY PUSH BACK INLAND OVERNIGHT,
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND INTO THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE.
BY TUESDAY, A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
KENAI PENINSULA, INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF
COAST, INCLUDING YAKUTAT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
EXCESSIVE, ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF BEFORE
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM... / WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY /
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN THE BERING SEA WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER, AND SEND DISTURBANCES
TOWARD AREAS AROUND ANCHORAGE. THIS PATTERN WILL SEND A DISTURBANCE
TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, AND A SECONDARY WEAKER
DISTURBANCE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE
LOW, THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS (1-3") AND STRONGER WINDS WILL
BE FROM YAKUTAT WESTWARD. WITH A RIDGE DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCE FRIDAY, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER NW WINDS
(15-20 KTS) TO DEVELOP ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF PRINCE OF WALES
ISLAND TOWARD HECATE STRAIT.
IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, WHERE THERE IS LESS RAIN, HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT, THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, BUT THERE IS CONFIDENCE THAT
THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AND WINDS IN THE GULF
SUNDAY.
AVIATION
LOWER CLOUDS FINALLY MOVED OUT OF THE AREA
ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME NORTHERN
AND COASTAL AREA, ESPECIALLY PAYA, ARE STILL BALANCING BETWEEN MVFR
AND VFR WITH CIGS AROUND 3000FT. PAHN AND PAGY WERE FINALLY ABLE TO
BREAK OUT OF THEIR LOW CIGS DUE TO DIURNAL WINDS FINALLY INCREASING
TO THE ANTICIPATED 10 TO 15 KTS. PAGY IS SPECIFICALLY SEEING THE
STRONGEST WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS EVEN UP TO 25 KTS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF LOWER
CLOUDS TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP BRINGING BACK MVFR CIGS, WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR TIMES OF IFR. THESE LOWER CLOUDS ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE IN
THE SAME AREAS, DUE TO A MARINE LAYER AND FOG. A MARINE LAYER IS NOT
AS LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT DUE TO A LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE IN
THE WEST/CENTRAL GULF. AS FOR FOG, IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR RADIATION FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN SOUTHCENTRAL AREAS.
MARINE
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): AS ANTICIPATED WINDS ACROSS N LYNN CANAL
INTO TAIYA INCREASED LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THAT AREA REMAIN AROUND 20 KTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KTS. WINDS REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, MOSTLY BE LOW 10
KTS, ACROSS THE REST OF THE INNER CHANNELS. OVERALL WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO ONCE AGAIN DIMINISH INTO THE NIGHT. LYNN CANAL WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A DIURNAL TREND OF ELEVATED WINDS DURING THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOUR. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, EVEN AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS LOW DOES NOT PUSH INLAND, ALLOWING
FOR AN AREA OF HIGHER PRESSURE TO REMAIN. ONE THING TO NOTE IS THAT
AREAS COULD SEE WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE, AS THAT HIGHER PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS MOVED
INTO THE WESTERN GULF. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR WIND IN THE CENTRAL GULF
TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY, SOON TO BE FOLLOWED BY PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN GULF. ALTHOUGH THE WESTERN AND FAR NORTHERN GULF IS SEEING
SOME INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS TO AROUND 20 KTS FROM THIS SYSTEM,
THE EASTERN GULF IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH WINDS
AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF WILL ONCE AGAIN
BECOME NORTHWEST AS THE LOW DISSIPATES ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO
ONCE AGAIN BUILD TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS WILL ONCE
AGAIN TAKE PRECEDENCE BEFORE THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES
TUESDAY. AS THE TUESDAY LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST, SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL FORM A BARRIER JET SET UP ALONG THE ICY
CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING REGION OUT TO 15NM. ALONG WITH WINDS, SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT ACROSS THE GULF, WITH A GROWING LIKELIHOOD
OF 9 FT WAVES NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
ONCE AGAIN THEN DIMINISH WEDNESDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ652.
SHORT TERM...MJB
LONG TERM...MUSALL
AVIATION...EAB
MARINE...EAB
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