196
FXAK67 PAJK 131729
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
929 AM AKDT MON JUL 13 2026
UPDATE
UPDATE TO THE AVIATION SECTION TO INCLUDE THE 18Z TAFS.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 533 AM AKDT MON JUL 13 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A MARINE LAYER WILL GRADUALLY PUSH BACK INLAND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, INCLUDING
YAKUTAT.
- A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE KENAI
PENINSULA ON TUESDAY, BRINGING INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT / A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
HOLDS POSITION OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND PANHANDLE, BETWEEN THE
THERMAL LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE WESTERN CANADA AND TROUGH/LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THIS PLACEMENT HAS CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE AND MOST OF THE GULF, AS A MARINE DECK, WITH LARGER
BREAKS FRO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS THEY ARE RIGHT OF THE RIDGE
AXIS, WHICH TENDS TO HAVE LESS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL STAY IN THE 50S TO 60S IN THE
NORTH, AND IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO NOT SEE ANY RAIN, HOWEVER AS WE TRANSITIONS
INTO THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME LIGHT RAIN SPREADING SLOWLY EAST
ALONG CENTRAL GULF COAST SHOULD REACH THE YAKUTAT AREA TUESDAY,
THEN INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE OR SOUTH TO ALONG TO
BARANOF/CHICHAGOF ISLANDS COASTAL AREAS WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM... / WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY [WRITTEN SUNDAY] /... A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE BERING SEA WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER,
AND SEND DISTURBANCES TOWARD AREAS AROUND ANCHORAGE. THIS PATTERN
WILL SEND A DISTURBANCE TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY,
AND A SECONDARY WEAKER DISTURBANCE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE LOW, THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS
(1-3") AND STRONGER WINDS WILL BE FROM YAKUTAT WESTWARD. WITH A
RIDGE DEVELOPING BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE FRIDAY, THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR SOME STRONGER NW WINDS (15-20 KTS) TO DEVELOP ON THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND TOWARD HECATE STRAIT.
IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, WHERE THERE IS LESS RAIN, HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT, THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, BUT THERE IS CONFIDENCE THAT
THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AND WINDS IN THE GULF
SUNDAY.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO VARY DEPENDING ON YOUR
LOCATION. MOST OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS BUT SOME
PLACES HAVE SEEN CEILINGS IN THE MVFR CATEGORIES THIS MORNING WITH
YAKUTAT DROPPING DOWN TO IFR AND LIFR. THE MARINE LAYER BRINGING
THESE CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE WE START TO SEE SOME IMPROVEMENTS. THE MARINE
LAYER IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT MORE LOCATIONS THIS EVENING AS THE
SUN STARTS TO SET AND WE SEE THIS LAYER SPREAD. YAKUTAT IS THE ONE
AREA THAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO SEE AS MUCH IMPROVEMENTS BUT SHOULD
STILL SOME IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
MARINE...
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): WINDS WITHIN NORTH LYNN CANAL
INTO TAIYA INLET WILL INCREASE AGAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
WINDS IN THIS REGION ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN UP TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS. ACROSS THE REST OF THE INNER CHANNELS, WINDS
WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE TODAY, MOSTLY 10 KTS OR LESS FROM
THE NORTHWEST. LYNN CANAL WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A DIURNAL TREND OF
ELEVATED WINDS DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOUR AND
DIMINISHING AT NIGHT AS DAYTIME HEATING SUBSIDES. INTO MIDWEEK,
WINDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN SEASONABLY
WEAKER, DESPITE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF MONDAY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO NOT PUSH INLAND, ALLOWING FOR
AN AREA OF HIGHER PRESSURE TO PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN REGION. AS
HIGHER PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE, EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME
PREDOMINATELY NORTHERLY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE,
WHERE WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO INCREASE WITHIN CORDOVA BAY AND SOUTHERN
CLARENCE STRAIT.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO LINGER IN THE WESTERN GULF TODAY, WHICH HAS CAUSED WINDS IN THE
CENTRAL GULF TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY, WITH THE EASTERN GULF SOON TO
FOLLOW. ALTHOUGH THE WESTERN AND FAR NORTHERN GULF IS EXPECTING
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO AROUND 20 KTS FROM THIS SYSTEM, THE
EASTERN GULF IS NOT LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE ANY IMPACTS, WITH LIGHTER
SPEEDS EXPECTED. WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF WILL BE PREDOMINATELY
FROM THE NORTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
MIDWEEK. WIDESPREAD WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS WILL ONCE AGAIN TAKE
PRECEDENCE BEFORE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY. AS
THE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST, SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL FORM A
BARRIER JET SET UP ALONG THE ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING REGION OUT TO
15NM. ALONG WITH WINDS, SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT ACROSS THE
GULF, WITH A GROWING LIKELIHOOD OF 9 FT WAVES NEAR THE NORTH GULF
COAST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL ONCE AGAIN THEN DIMINISH WEDNESDAY TO
WHICH A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN EMERGES.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-652.
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM...MUSALL
AVIATION...SF
MARINE...BAS
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