868
FXAK67 PAJK 132255
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
255 PM AKDT MON JUL 13 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- A MARINE LAYER WILL GRADUALLY PUSH BACK INLAND ACROSS MOST OF
THE PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
- A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE KENAI
PENINSULA ON TUESDAY, BRINGING INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF.
SHORT TERM
RELATIVELY BENIGN DAY AND TOMORROW, WITH A BUILDING
RIDGE ALOFT, HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GULF, AND SOME CLEARING
IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE. SURFACE TO 700 MB IS
MOSTLY SATURATED WITH WEAK, WESTERLY FLOW IN THE ICY STRAIT AREA
TO NE GULF COAST. THEREFORE KEEPING AT LEAST SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES
IN FOR ELFIN COVE, PELICAN, AND GUSTAVUS AS THE MOST LIKELY
CANDIDATES FOR ANY ACCUMULATING RAINFALL. YAKUTAT HAS A MUCH
HIGHER LIKELIHOOD FOR ACCUMULATING RAINFALL, WITH MORE CONSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLIES AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. FOR JUNEAU, HAINES,
AND SKAGWAY, EXPECTING WEAK FLOW TO PRIMARILY COME OVER AS CLOUDS
RATHER THAN RAIN, DUE TO DOWNSLOPING AFTER THE CHILKAT RANGE.
GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, A FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA,
PRIMARILY IMPACTING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT
IS PUSHING INTO PRIMARILY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND RIDGING, SO NOT
LOOKING TO BE A GUARANTEED RAIN MAKER OUTSIDE OF YAKUTAT. AS FOR
YAKUTAT, BACKING OFF ON RAIN TOTALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO AROUND A
HALF TO THREE QUARTERS INCH TOTALS. DUE TO THE RIDGE, A BULK OF
THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OF THE YAKUTAT AREA.
LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A RIDGE REMAINS OVER
THE GULF THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A FEW DISTURBANCES
MOVING INTO THE NE GULF COAST. THE FIRST OF THESE LOWS, IN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD, WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE NE GULF LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINLY BRING RAIN TO THE YAKUTAT
AREA AND WESTWARD, WITH HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS REMAINING WEST OF THE
PANHANDLE. CURRENTLY, RAIN 24 HOUR RAIN TOTALS STILL REMAIN LOW
OVER THE YAKUTAT AREA WITH LESS THAN 1 INCH MOST LIKELY. THIS WILL
ALSO BRING INCREASED WINDS INTO THE NE GULF, ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE
SUCKLING WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASING TO 20
TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME WIDESPREAD NORTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE GULF LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE REST OF THE
PANHANDLE WILL REMAIN ON THE DRIER SIDE, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEK. LATE IN THE WORK WEEK, INTO THE
START OF THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGHEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR HYDER. ON FRIDAY, 850
MB TEMPERATURES INDICATE AN INCREASE TO 12 TO 14 C OVER POW,
KETCHIKAN, AND ANNETTE. OVER HYDER, 850 TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO
THE UPPER TEENS WITH 20 C POSSIBLE JUST EAST OF THE AREA. HYDER
HAS A 70 TO 80% CHANCE OF REACHING A HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S
ON FRIDAY WITH A 20 TO 30% CHANCE OF HITTING 90 DEGREES F.
AVIATION
VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SIMILAR FLYING WEATHER EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW. MARINE
LAYER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR CEILINGS
TO DROP AGAIN FOR AREAS THAT SAW LOWERED CEILINGS THIS MORNING. SOME
POTENTIAL VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY FOR
PLACES LIKE YAKUTAT WERE THE MARINE LAYER HAS BEEN DOWN TO IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOST PLACES SHOULD STAY MVFR
TO VFR TONIGHT WITH SOME EXPANSION OF THE MARINE LAYER BEING
POSSIBLE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE YAKUTAT WHICH COULD BE BACK DOWN TO
LOW END IFR OR POTENTIALLY LIFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MARINE
INSIDE WATERS: FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW, EXPECTING WINDS TO LARGELY
BE DOMINANT BY THERMAL AND LEESIDE TROUGHING IN BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND THE YUKON RESPECTIVELY. MOST PROMINENTLY, LYNN CANAL AND
CLARENCE STRAIT ARE THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATES FOR WINDS GREATER
THAN 15 KNOTS, WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TAIYA INLET
SPECIFICALLY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OUTSIDE: LARGELY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH LOW CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL
FOG DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS
ALONG THE WESTERN COAST FROM CAPE DECISION TO DIXON ENTRANCE.
WINDS WILL LARGELY SHIFT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY AS AN INCOMING
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING TO SEE
A BARRIER JET DEVELOP ALONG THE NE GULF COAST, WITH SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS HITTING GALE FORCE BY 10 PM AT THE LATEST NEAR CAPE
SUCKLING. NOT EXPECTING THIS JET TO LAST LONG, AS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WINDS LOOK TO TRANSITION BACK TO A WESTERLY,
SOUTHWESTERLY PATTERN.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-672.
SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...SF
MARINE...NC
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