330
FXAK67 PAJK 140605 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1005 PM AKDT MON JUL 13 2026
UPDATE
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR 6Z TAF ISSUANCE. ALSO,
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A GLACIER DAMMED LAKE OUTBURST HAS
STARTED ON THE SALMON RIVER NEAR HYDER FROM SUMMIT LAKE. WATER
LEVELS ON THAT RIVER HAVE BEEN RISING OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS AND
WATER TEMPERATURES HAVE SHOWN A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND EVEN THOUGH
AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION TODAY WERE NEARLY 8 DEGREES WARMER
THEN YESTERDAY. WE EXPECT THAT THE SALMON RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO
RISE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH A CREST EXPECTED EITHER
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY BASED ON PAST RELEASE BEHAVIOR. UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW MUCH WATER IS CURRENTLY IN SUMMIT LAKE AS WELL AS HOW MUCH
WILL RELEASE ACCOUNTS FOR THE VARYING CREST HEIGHT AND TIMING. AN
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE HYDER AREA.
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A MARINE LAYER WILL GRADUALLY PUSH BACK INLAND ACROSS MOST OF
THE PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
- A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE KENAI
PENINSULA ON TUESDAY, BRINGING INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF.
SHORT TERM...RELATIVELY BENIGN DAY AND TOMORROW, WITH A BUILDING
RIDGE ALOFT, HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GULF, AND SOME CLEARING
IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE. SURFACE TO 700 MB IS
MOSTLY SATURATED WITH WEAK, WESTERLY FLOW IN THE ICY STRAIT AREA
TO NE GULF COAST. THEREFORE KEEPING AT LEAST SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES
IN FOR ELFIN COVE, PELICAN, AND GUSTAVUS AS THE MOST LIKELY
CANDIDATES FOR ANY ACCUMULATING RAINFALL. YAKUTAT HAS A MUCH
HIGHER LIKELIHOOD FOR ACCUMULATING RAINFALL, WITH MORE CONSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLIES AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. FOR JUNEAU, HAINES,
AND SKAGWAY, EXPECTING WEAK FLOW TO PRIMARILY COME OVER AS CLOUDS
RATHER THAN RAIN, DUE TO DOWNSLOPING AFTER THE CHILKAT RANGE.
GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, A FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA,
PRIMARILY IMPACTING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT
IS PUSHING INTO PRIMARILY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND RIDGING, SO NOT
LOOKING TO BE A GUARANTEED RAIN MAKER OUTSIDE OF YAKUTAT. AS FOR
YAKUTAT, BACKING OFF ON RAIN TOTALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO AROUND A
HALF TO THREE QUARTERS INCH TOTALS. DUE TO THE RIDGE, A BULK OF
THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OF THE YAKUTAT AREA.
LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A RIDGE REMAINS OVER
THE GULF THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A FEW DISTURBANCES
MOVING INTO THE NE GULF COAST. THE FIRST OF THESE LOWS, IN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD, WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE NE GULF LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINLY BRING RAIN TO THE YAKUTAT
AREA AND WESTWARD, WITH HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS REMAINING WEST OF THE
PANHANDLE. CURRENTLY, RAIN 24 HOUR RAIN TOTALS STILL REMAIN LOW
OVER THE YAKUTAT AREA WITH LESS THAN 1 INCH MOST LIKELY. THIS WILL
ALSO BRING INCREASED WINDS INTO THE NE GULF, ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE
SUCKLING WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASING TO 20
TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME WIDESPREAD NORTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE GULF LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE REST OF THE
PANHANDLE WILL REMAIN ON THE DRIER SIDE, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEK. LATE IN THE WORK WEEK, INTO THE
START OF THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGHEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR HYDER. ON FRIDAY, 850
MB TEMPERATURES INDICATE AN INCREASE TO 12 TO 14 C OVER POW,
KETCHIKAN, AND ANNETTE. OVER HYDER, 850 TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO
THE UPPER TEENS WITH 20 C POSSIBLE JUST EAST OF THE AREA. HYDER
HAS A 70 TO 80% CHANCE OF REACHING A HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S
ON FRIDAY WITH A 20 TO 30% CHANCE OF HITTING 90 DEGREES F.
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS OF THE
PANHANDLE. THE EXCEPTION IS THE AREA ALONG THE OUTER COAST FROM
YAKUTAT TO CROSS SOUND, AND INLAND TO HOONAH AND GUSTAVUS WHERE
CEILINGS HAVE BEEN AS LOW AS 1400 TO 2500 FT THIS EVENING. MARINE
LAYER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR
CEILINGS TO DROP AGAIN FOR AREAS THAT SAW LOWERED CEILINGS MONDAY
MORNING DOWN TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR. SOME POTENTIAL VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY FOR PLACES LIKE
YAKUTAT WERE THE MARINE LAYER WAS DOWN TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
MONDAY MORNING. MOST OTHER PLACES SHOULD STAY VFR TONIGHT WITH
SOME EXPANSION OF THE MARINE LAYER BEING POSSIBLE. EXPECT MOST
AREAS THAT DID SEE MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT TO IMPROVE AGAIN TO VFR
TOMORROW BEFORE MOST OF THE SAME AREAS THAT SAW LOWER CONDITIONS
TUESDAY MORNING TO START TO SEE LOWER CEILINGS INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. HIGHEST SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED IN NORTHERN
LYNN AND SKAGWAY AREA WITH S WIND TO 10 TO 20 KT THAT WILL
PERSIST INTO TUESDAY.
MARINE...
INSIDE WATERS: FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW, EXPECTING WINDS TO LARGELY
BE DOMINANT BY THERMAL AND LEESIDE TROUGHING IN BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND THE YUKON RESPECTIVELY. MOST PROMINENTLY, LYNN CANAL AND
CLARENCE STRAIT ARE THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATES FOR WINDS GREATER
THAN 15 KNOTS, WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TAIYA INLET
SPECIFICALLY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OUTSIDE: LARGELY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH LOW CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL
FOG DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS
ALONG THE WESTERN COAST FROM CAPE DECISION TO DIXON ENTRANCE.
WINDS WILL LARGELY SHIFT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY AS AN INCOMING
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING TO SEE
A BARRIER JET DEVELOP ALONG THE NE GULF COAST, WITH SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS HITTING GALE FORCE BY 10 PM AT THE LATEST NEAR CAPE
SUCKLING. NOT EXPECTING THIS JET TO LAST LONG, AS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WINDS LOOK TO TRANSITION BACK TO A WESTERLY,
SOUTHWESTERLY PATTERN.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ672.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
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