846
FXAK67 PAJK 141828
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1028 AM AKDT TUE JUL 14 2026
UPDATE
TO THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWING THE 18Z TAF
ISSUANCE.
AVIATION UPDATE.../THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
FORECAST LARGELY
REMAINS UNCHANGED FOR THE UPCOMING SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NE GULF
COAST TONIGHT, WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REST
OF THE PANHANDLE LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. MUCH
OF THE AREA HAS SEEN CLEARING OF A MARINE LAYER FROM OVERNIGHT INTO
THIS MORNING, WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY FOR THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE FARTHER FROM THE OUTER COASTLINE.
THE OUTER NE GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MVFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO 1500-2500 FT CIGS THROUGH THE DAY, BEGINNING TO DROP TO MORE
LOW-END MVFR OF 1000-1500 FT THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT AHEAD
OF THE UPCOMING SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE INTO
TONIGHT, WITH THIS RAIN REACHING THE YAKUTAT AREA BY AROUND 06 TO
08Z. THIS WILL BRING A DROP TO CIGS AND VIS TO IFR CONDITIONS
AROUND YAKUTAT AND THE NE COASTLINE TONIGHT, WITH CIGS OF 500-1000
FT AND VIS OF 4-6SM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RAINFALL LASTING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE CROSS SOUND AREA
UP TO GUSTAVUS BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, KEEPING THESE AREAS
AT MVFR CIGS WITH PRECIPITATION BEGINNING BY AROUND 18Z.
A MARINE LAYER LOOKS TO STILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT LARGELY FOR
AREAS FURTHER SOUTHWARD COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT, WITH KLAWOCK AND
THE WESTERN COAST OF POW AND SOUTHERN BARANOF HAVING POTENTIAL TO
SEE A LOW STRATUS DECK DEVELOP ALONG THE SHORE.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 604 AM AKDT TUE JUL 14 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A MARINE LAYER WILL GRADUALLY PUSH BACK INLAND ACROSS MOST OF
THE PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
- A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE KENAI PENINSULA
ON TUESDAY, BRINGING INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST GULF.
SHORT TERM.../ THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT / HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN GULF AND PANHANDLE LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
THE MARINE LAYER COVERS THE NORTHEAST GULF AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE
WITH LARGER BREAKS FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. IN OTHER WORDS MORE
OF WHAT HAS BEEN GOING ON THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS LIKELY WHAT
YOUR GOING TO SEE TODAY. BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON FOR THE SKAGWAY
AREA. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND 60S TO NEAR 70 FOR THE SOUTHERN.
MAY SEE SOME MORNING PATCH FOG THAT LIFTS DURING THE DAY. A FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE GULF WILL START TO SPREAD RAIN INTO THE YAKUTAT
AREA LATER TUESDAY, AND PROBABLY INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE BY
THE END OF WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A RIDGE REMAINS OVER
THE GULF THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A FEW DISTURBANCES
MOVING INTO THE NE GULF COAST. THE FIRST OF THESE LOWS, IN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD, WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE NE GULF LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINLY BRING RAIN TO THE YAKUTAT
AREA AND WESTWARD, WITH HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS REMAINING WEST OF THE
PANHANDLE. CURRENTLY, RAIN 24 HOUR RAIN TOTALS STILL REMAIN LOW
OVER THE YAKUTAT AREA WITH LESS THAN 1 INCH MOST LIKELY. THIS WILL
ALSO BRING INCREASED WINDS INTO THE NE GULF, ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE
SUCKLING WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASING TO 20
TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME WIDESPREAD NORTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE GULF LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE REST OF THE
PANHANDLE WILL REMAIN ON THE DRIER SIDE, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEK. LATE IN THE WORK WEEK, INTO THE
START OF THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGHEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR HYDER. ON FRIDAY, 850
MB TEMPERATURES INDICATE AN INCREASE TO 12 TO 14 C OVER POW,
KETCHIKAN, AND ANNETTE. OVER HYDER, 850 TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO
THE UPPER TEENS WITH 20 C POSSIBLE JUST EAST OF THE AREA. HYDER
HAS A 70 TO 80% CHANCE OF REACHING A HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S
ON FRIDAY WITH A 20 TO 30% CHANCE OF HITTING 90 DEGREES F.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...THE MARINE LAYER IS RETURNING
THIS MORNING, BRINGING CEILINGS DOWN TO 1500 FT AND REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO 3-4 SM, MAINLY FROM CENTRAL BARANOF ISLAND NORTHWARD
TO YAKUTAT AND INLAND TOWARD HOONAH AND GUSTAVUS. AROUND DAYBREAK, A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER ICY STRAIT COULD ALSO TEMPORARILY
LOWER CONDITIONS. MOST OF TODAY'S PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO STAY
CONFINED TO THE NORTH GULF COAST NEAR YAKUTAT, WITH AN INCREASE
OVERNIGHT LIKELY DEGRADING CONDITIONS TO IFR BY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. ELSEWHERE, THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING
VFR CONDITIONS, WHICH SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
HOWEVER, PAKW MAY SEE EARLY MORNING IMPACTS TO VISIBILITIES FROM THE
MARINE LAYER AS IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD TOMORROW. THE
INLAND NORTHERN PANHANDLE (PAGY, PAHN, PAJN) IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE
MOSTLY VFR TODAY, BUT CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE CHILKAT RANGE MAY CAUSE
BRIEF DROPS TO HIGH-END MVFR CEILINGS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE...
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): SOUTHERLY WINDS WITHIN NORTH LYNN CANAL
INTO TAIYA INLET WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEIGHTENED AT 20-25 KTS THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND STAY SUSTAINED OVERNIGHT AROUND 10-15 KTS, AS
THERMAL TROUGHING IN BRITISH COLUMBIA PERSISTS. ACROSS THE REST
OF THE INNER CHANNELS, WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE,
MOSTLY 10 KTS OR LESS FROM THE NORTHWEST DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE EASTERN GULF. WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 15 KTS IN SOUTHERN
CLARENCE STRAIT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO THE PREDOMINATELY
NORTHWEST WIND PATTERN, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SE
GULF, WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL FOLLOW A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
WITH LOW CLOUDS PUSHING IN DUE TO THE MARINE LAYER, AND OCCASIONAL
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
WESTERN COAST FROM CAPE DECISION TO DIXON ENTRANCE. WINDS WILL
LARGELY SHIFT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY AS AN INCOMING FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING TO SEE A BARRIER JET
DEVELOP ALONG THE NE GULF COAST, WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS HITTING
GALE FORCE (35-40 KTS) BY 10 PM AT THE LATEST NEAR CAPE SUCKLING TO
ICY BAY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE UP TO 10 FT AS THE JET
STRENGTHENS, THOUGH WILL START TO DIMINISH TO 5-6 FT BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS WINDS LOOK TO TRANSITION BACK TO A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY,
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN.
HYDROLOGY...RIVER RISES ON SALMON RIVER NEAR HYDER HAS BEEN QUITE
NOTABLE GOING UP NEARLY 2 FEET IN THE LAST 36 HOURS AND THEIR
HASN'T BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. WATER TEMPS ARE LOWERING
WITH WHAT IS ASSUMED TO BE A RELEASE FROM THE SUMMIT LAKE. IT IS UNKNOWN
HOW MUCH WATER WILL BE RELEASED FROM SUMMIT LAKE WHICH RESULTS IN
LARGE UNCERTAINTY ON CREST HEIGHT AND TIMING. A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR IT.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ672.
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...CONTINO
MARINE...BAS
HYDROLOGY...BEZENEK
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