686
FXAK67 PAJK 142331
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
331 PM AKDT TUE JUL 14 2026
SHORT TERM
MULTIPLE SMALLISH SYSTEMS WORKING THEIR WAY
PRIMARILY THROUGH THE NE GULF COAST AND INTO THE FAR INNER
CHANNELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AS THE JET ALOFT MOVES EASTWARD.
WITH THIS JET, SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG RESULTING IN
MULTIPLE FRONTS MOVING ACROSS. WHILE THESE DO LOOK CONVECTIVE IN
NATURE, A MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY IN THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO OCCUR
BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 800 MB, IN TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN -5 C.
THEN BEYOND 800 MB IS ISOTHERMAL TO AN INVERSION UP TO 500 MB.
THEREFORE, NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS, JUST OROGRAPHICALLY
FORCED RAIN SHOWERS. WITH THE JET PUSHING THE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE FURTHER SOUTH, THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. COOL AIR ALOFT
STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST LOOKS TO LIMIT
TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S THROUGH
THURSDAY.
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MOSTLY UNCHANGED THOUGHT
PROCESS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. LEADING INTO THE START OF THE
WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGHEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE PANHANDLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR HYDER. ON FRIDAY, 850 MB
TEMPERATURES INDICATE AN INCREASE TO 12 TO 14 C OVER POW,
KETCHIKAN, AND ANNETTE, TRANSLATING TO MID TO UPPER 70S DURING A
WELL MIXED, SOLAR DRIVEN EVENT. SLIGHTLY PULLED BACK FROM MAX
TEMPERATURES IN HYDER, AS 850 TEMPERATURES NO LONGER ARE EXPECTED TO
GET 850 TEMPERATURES BOTH IN THE HYDER AREA AND TO THE EAST.
HYDER HAS A 70 TO 80% CHANCE OF REACHING A HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80S ON FRIDAY WITH A 10% CHANCE OF HITTING 90 DEGREES F.
AVIATION
CIGS OF 300-800 FT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING, BEFORE
AN IMPROVEMENT BY MIDMORNING FROM WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR. SITKA
UP TO CROSS SOUND AND INTO ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR WILL SEE CONDITIONS
DTERIORATE INTO THE MORNING AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES IN, WITH MVFR
CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA INTO JUNEAU.
MARINE
INSIDE WATERS: A FRONT CLEANING VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IS SWEEPING
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS, EXPECTING TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS FOR THE
INNER WATERS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE WIND SPEEDS MAY INCREASE
TO 15-20 KNOTS IN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FACING CHANNELS, THE HIGHEST
IMPACT WILL BE THE WESTERLY WIND SHIFT OCCURRING RIGHT AROUND THE
NOON TIMEFRAME FOR CROSS AND FREDERICK SOUND. AREAS EXPOSED TO THE
GULF ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOMEWHAT QUICKLY, WITH A MORE MUTED
SHIFT INLAND DUE TO THE FRONT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES OVER TERRAIN.
OUTSIDE: A FRONT MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO THE WESTERN COAST, INCREASING WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS.
AREAS TO THE WEST OF ICY BAY LOOK LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE AT LEAST 30
KNOT WINDS WITH A CHANCE OF SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS. A WESTERLY
SHIFT BEHIND THE FRONT STILL CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN. WAVE
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY SEASONAL, UP TO 6 FT. ALTHOUGH
DIFFERENT WAVE TRAINS MAY RESULT IN CONFUSING SEAS THE THE NE GULF
COAST.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ651-672.
SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...CONTINO
MARINE...NC
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