565
FXAK67 PAJK 151822
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1022 AM AKDT WED JUL 15 2026
UPDATE
MORNING UPDATE CORRESPONDING TO THE 18Z TAFS.
AVIATION
A FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE GULF
COAST, WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY IMPACTING TERMINALS ALONG THE THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE PASI NORTHWARD. HOWEVER, A THERE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS COULD FORM INLAND LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO
SOME TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE INLAND
AREAS. GULF COAST AREAS SOUTH OF PASI WILL CONTINUE TO SEE BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH TOMORROW, THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE THAT THIS MARINE LAYER DEEPENS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
SOME ISOLATED DRIZZLE/MIST FORMS. FOR THE INLAND AREAS PAPG SOUTH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. WITH WINDS
EASING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THERE IS CHANCE OF SOME PATCHES
OF LOW END MVFR CEILINGS TO FORM DUE TO LOCALIZED MARINE LAYERS.
AS OF RIGHT NOW, ANY IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY WILL BE EXTREMELY
ISOLATED AND LIKELY VERY BRIEF (DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS).
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT
326AM WED JULY 15 2026
SHORT TERM../THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/ NO MAJOR CHANGES TO ONGOING
FORECAST THIS MORNING AS FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ITS WAY THROUGH
THE NE GULF COAST AND INTO THE FAR INNER CHANNELS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR WITH DRIER AND SUNNIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU MOVE DOWN THE PANHANDLE. NOT
ANTICIPATING A WASHOUT, WITH HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO HALF AN
INCH AT YAKUTAT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, DECREASING FURTHER INLAND
TOWARDS JUNEAU. WAKING UP THURSDAY MORNING, RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH
WITH SKIES CLEARING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD OUT OF THE PACIFIC TOWARDS THE AREA.
OVERALL, NO MAJOR WEATHER HAZARDS OR CONCERNS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT OUTSIDE OF A MODERATE SHOWER. HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH INTO
THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH A WARMING
TREND EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY UNCHANGED THOUGHT PROCESS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
LEADING INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOCATED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR
HYDER. ON FRIDAY, 850 MB TEMPERATURES INDICATE AN INCREASE TO 12
TO 14 C OVER POW, KETCHIKAN, AND ANNETTE, TRANSLATING TO MID TO
UPPER 70S DURING A WELL MIXED, SOLAR DRIVEN EVENT. SLIGHTLY PULLED
BACK FROM MAX TEMPERATURES IN HYDER, AS 850 TEMPERATURES NO
LONGER ARE EXPECTED TO GET 850 TEMPERATURES BOTH IN THE HYDER AREA
AND TO THE EAST. HYDER HAS A 70 TO 80% CHANCE OF REACHING A HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ON FRIDAY WITH A 10% CHANCE OF HITTING 90
DEGREES F.
AVIATION…12Z TAFS… A MARINE LAYER CONTINUES TO AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE REGION, AND MAY ULTIMATELY ADVANCE A BIT FARTHER SOUTHWARD
AND INLAND THAN RECENT NIGHTS. ADDITIONALLY, AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
DRAWS CLOSER, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOST
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NE GULF, INCLUDING PAYA. THIS WILL BRING CIG
AND VIS REDUCTIONS AT IFR AT TIMES. ELSEWHERE, AS THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTHEAST, MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE INTO PASI, PAJN, AND
ADJACENT LOCALES BY 15Z-20Z. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, ALTHOUGH BRIEF REDUCTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE EARLY TODAY IN FOG OR MIST, ESPECIALLY AT PAKW. SURFACE
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 10KT OR LESS, EXCEPT AT PAGY AND PAHN,
WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD.
MARINE...
INSIDE WATERS: PERSISTENT THERMAL TROUGHING IN CANADA WILL KEEP
SOUTHERLY WINDS ELEVATED AT 20-25 KTS WITHIN NORTH LYNN CANAL AND
TAIYA INLET OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH SPEEDS STAYING SUSTAINED
OVERNIGHT AROUND 10-15 KTS. ACROSS THE REMAINING INNER CHANNELS,
LIGHTER WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT WESTERLY AND
THEN NORTHWESTERLY AS A FRONT PASSES AND HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS IN
THE EASTERN GULF. A PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY PATTERN MAY INCREASE
WINDS TO 15-20 KTS IN SOUTHERN CLARENCE STRAIT OVER THE COMING
DAYS, PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. ADDITIONALLY,
NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED CHANNELS WILL LIKELY SEE A MINOR INCREASE
IN WIND SPEEDS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE MOST NOTABLE IMPACT
WILL BE A WESTERLY WIND SHIFT AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY FOR CROSS
AND FREDERICK SOUND. THIS SHIFT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR QUICKLY IN
AREAS EXPOSED TO THE GULF, BUT WILL BE MORE MUTED INLAND AS THE
FRONT WEAKENS OVER TERRAIN.
OUTSIDE: WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL LARGELY SHIFT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE RECEDES IN THE SE GULF AND A SERIES
OF EASTWARD-MOVING FRONTS EXTEND FROM A LOW CENTERED NEAR SEWARD.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE WESTERN COAST,
INCREASING WIND SPEEDS UP TO 25 KTS. WEST OF ICY BAY, A BARRIER
JET FORMATION CAUSED BY THE ORIENTATION OF THE WINDS MAKES AT
LEAST 30 KT WINDS LIKELY, WITH A CHANCE OF SUSTAINED GALE FORCE
WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DWINDLE TO 10-15 KTS BY THE END OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW
DISSIPATES AND A WESTERLY SHIFT BEHIND THE FRONT TAKES PLACE. A
RIDGE BUILDS BEHIND THESE FRONTS, CAUSING A SHIFT FROM WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL CAUSE A CHANNELING OF WINDS IN THE DIXON
ENTRANCE REGION, EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH THOUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF REACHING 20-25 KTS. WAVE HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN MOSTLY SEASONAL AT UP TO 6 FT, THOUGH A
SUCCESSION OF SHORT WAVES MOVING CLOSELY TOGETHER MAY CREATE
CONFUSING SEAS ALONG THE NE GULF COAST. THERE STILL REMAINS A
POTENTIAL FOR SEAS TO REACH UP TO 8 FT NEAR CAPE SUCKLING WITH THE
CURRENT PASSAGE OF THESE FRONTS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ641-652.
SHORT TERM...NM
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...BUTWIN/GARMON
MARINE...BAS
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