541
FXAK67 PAJK 160547 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
947 PM AKDT WED JUL 15 2026
UPDATE
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR 6Z TAF ISSUANCE.
SHORT TERM...A WEAK FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SOME LOCATIONS WITH
ACCUMULATIONS AMOUNTING ONLY AROUND A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH. BEHIND THIS FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO FAIRLY QUIET
WEATHER FOR THE PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE ARE EXPECTED TO WARM WITH SOME PLACES GETTING INTO THE MID
70S. SOME MARINE LAYER IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OUTER COAST
AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, A LOW
MOVING UP THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL WORK INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
WILL BE THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR THE AREA.
LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A GENERAL DRYING TREND IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO GRACE THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
TO START OFF NEXT WEEK. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS PATTERN IS YAKUTAT,
WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE.
OVERALL CLEARER, MORE SUNNY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO EMERGE BY
SUNDAY, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE. MODELS ARE INDICATING WARM UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES
OVER CANADA AND WINDS THAT ARE ORIENTED MORE OFFSHORE, ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR
TEMPERATURES IN HYDER, KETCHIKAN, AND ACROSS COMMUNITIES ON POW
ISLAND TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD
ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHLY PRESSURE GRADIENT DRIVEN, ESPECIALLY IN
LYNN CANAL (SOUTHERN FLOW) AND CLARENCE STRAIT (NORTHERN FLOW),
WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS IN SKAGWAY. THERE COULD BE SOME SEA BREEZE
COMPONENT AT PLAY HERE AS WELL THAT IS TYPICALLY SEEN ON SUNNIER
AND WARMER DAYS. OTHERWISE, THE WIND IS LIKELY TO BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION...CLOUDS COVER THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE PANHANDLE WHILE
THE SOUTHERN THIRD STILL HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THAT IS SLOWLY
CHANGING AS MARINE LAYER CLOUDS PRESS FURTHER INTO THE SOUTHERN
INNER CHANNELS TONIGHT. CURRENTLY THEY ARE ONLY AS FAR EAST AS THE
WESTERN HALF OF KUPREANOF AND PRINCE OF WALES ISLANDS. IN THE
CLOUD COVERED NORTH, AREAS ALONG THE OUTER COAST FROM BARANOF
ISLAND NORTHWARD AND INLAND TO JUNEAU HAVE SEEN SOME LIGHT RAIN
WITH CEILINGS DOWN TO 400 TO 1000 FT. INTO TONIGHT, CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND POSSIBLY SPREAD INTO PETERSBURG, WRANGELL
AND NORTHERN CLARANCE POSSIBLY BRINGING CEILINGS DOWN TO 1500 FT
IN PLACES WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN STILL POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND OUTER COAST. INTO THURSDAY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AS A SHARPENING RIDGE IN THE GULF IS
EXPECTED TO TURN LOW LEVEL FLOW JUST ENOUGH TO BE A NORTHERLY
OFFSHORE THAT SHOULD IMPROVE CEILINGS TO VFR AND MAY START TO
CLEAR VARIOUS AREAS OF THE INNER CHANNELS OUT OF CLOUDS (THE
EXCEPTION IS YAKUTAT WHICH WILL BE TOO FAR WEST TO COMPLETELY
BENEFIT FROM THAT OFFSHORE FLOW, BUT THEY MAY STILL IMPROVE TO
VFR CEILINGS BY MIDDAY). HIGHEST WINDS CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
AFTERNOONS AROUND N LYNN, ICY STRAIT, AND SKAGWAY WITH WINDS UP TO
10 TO 15 KT.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): WINDS ACROSS THE GULF ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES GOING INTO TONIGHT. AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GULF, WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT TO
MORE OF A W-NW WIND ACROSS THE GULF BEFORE STARTING TO INCREASE FROM
CAPE DECISION DOWN TO THE DIXON ENTRANCE. THESE WINDS COULD START TO
INCREASE TO STRONG BREEZES ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO DIXON ENTRANCE. FOR
WAVE HEIGHTS, SEAS SHOULD BE AROUND 6 FT THIS EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING GOING INTO TOMORROW DURING THE AFTERNOON. WAVES COULD
GET CLOSER TO 5-7 FT ALONG CAPE DECISION DOWN TO DIXON ENTRANCE WITH
THE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS BUT THE REST OF THE GULF SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 4-6 FT GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT LOW TO IMPACT THE
AREA MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BRINGING FRESH
TO STRONG BREEZES.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS THIS AFTERNOON,
WINDS CONTINUE TO REMAIN LIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE AREA SEEING
THE STRONGEST WINDS AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE LYNN CANAL WITH
ELDRED ROCK REPORTING WIND SPEEDS AROUND 20 KT. THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. FOR THE REST OF THE INNER CHANNEL WATER WAYS,
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES. CLARENCE STRAIT
SHOULD SEE WINDS INCREASE GOING INTO THURSDAY AS NW WINDS INCREASE
UP TO FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES.
HYDROLOGY...A GLACIER LAKE RELEASE CONTINUES ON THE SALMON RIVER
NEAR HYDER THIS AFTERNOON WITH RIVER LEVELS STILL RISING AT THE TIME
OF WRITING. DUE TO THE UNKNOWN VOLUME OF WATER IN SUMMIT LAKE, IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN AN EXACT CREST WILL OCCUR. WITH THE RELEASE HAVING
STARTED AROUND JULY 13TH, A CREST COULD BE SOONER RATHER THAN LATER.
THE ONLY KNOWN IMPACTS WITH THIS RELEASE WILL BE AN ELEVATED RIVER,
COLDER THAN NORMAL WATER TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL DEBRIS IN THE
WATER SUCH AS TREES.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...AGP
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...SF
HYDROLOGY...SF
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