785
FXAK67 PAJK 161246
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
446 AM AKDT THU JUL 16 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S EXPECTED.
- A WEAK SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE N GULF COAST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
BRINGING A BRIEF RETURN OF RAIN TO COASTAL COMMUNITIES.
- STRONGEST MARITIME WINDS EXPECTED WITHIN NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AND
CLARENCE STRAIT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO WARM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
/THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
WAKING UP THIS MORNING, AN OVERCAST MARINE LAYER CLOUD DECK
REMAINS ENTRENCHED ALONG THE GULF COASTAL COMMUNITIES INTO
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGH THURSDAY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WESTWARD TOWARDS THE
COAST, WITH OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY,
MID 50S TO MID 60S ALONG THE COASTAL DUE TO OVERCAST SKIES, MID
60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR COMMUNITIES, INCLUDING
JUNEAU, WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE DAY EXPECTED SOUTHWARD,
PREDOMINATELY IN THE MID 70S. LIMITING FACTOR FOR TEMPERATURES
TODAY FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL BE HOW QUICKLY CLOUD COVER
RETREATS, HIGHER FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF WARMER TEMPERATURE FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST OVERLAND WINDS EXPECTED NEAR SKAGWAY
AND KETCHIKAN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS RIDGING BUILDS IN,
SUSTAINED AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 MPH, MORE
FREQUENT AT SKAGWAY. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN EXPECTED BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS A WEAKENING FRONT PUSHES INTO THE N GULF. HIGH RAIN
CHANCES EXPECTED FOR YAKUTAT AND ALONG THE COAST SOUTHWARD TO
SITKA, WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES OVER TO JUNEAU THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING A RAINOUT OF ANY SORT, AROUND A QUARTER INCH
OR LESS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALL THIS TO SAY,
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS, MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE MONITORING DAY TIME TEMPERATURES FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND ONCE AGAIN MOVING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A GENERAL DRYING TREND IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO GRACE THE
PANHANDLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND TO START OFF NEXT WEEK. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS PATTERN IS YAKUTAT, WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE. OVERALL CLEARER, MORE SUNNY
SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO EMERGE BY SUNDAY, INCREASING THE
POTENTIAL FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. MODELS ARE
INDICATING WARM UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES OVER CANADA AND WINDS
THAT ARE ORIENTED MORE OFFSHORE, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. THIS BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES IN HYDER,
KETCHIKAN, AND ACROSS COMMUNITIES ON POW ISLAND TO REACH HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HIGHLY PRESSURE GRADIENT DRIVEN, ESPECIALLY IN LYNN CANAL
(SOUTHERN FLOW) AND CLARENCE STRAIT (NORTHERN FLOW), WITH GUSTY
CONDITIONS IN SKAGWAY. THERE COULD BE SOME SEA BREEZE COMPONENT AT
PLAY HERE AS WELL THAT IS TYPICALLY SEEN ON SUNNIER AND WARMER
DAYS. OTHERWISE, THE WIND IS LIKELY TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION...12Z TAFS
A MARINE LAYER IS BRINGING MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH SOME
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO MUCH OF THE REGION.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
CEILINGS RISE IN MOST AREAS BETWEEN 18Z-20Z AS A RIDGE SLOWLY
BUILDS INTO THE GULF AND WINDS TURN A BIT MORE OFFSHORE, WHICH
SHOULD FINALLY HELP CONDITIONS BECOME PREDOMINANTLY VFR. THE
NORTHEAST GULF, INCLUDING PAYA, WILL MAINTAIN THE LOWER CEILINGS
LONGEST, PERHAPS UNTIL 21Z OR EVEN A BIT LONGER. FOR SURFACE
WINDS, THE HIGHEST SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR PAGY AND SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE ICY STRAIT.
MARINE
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): WINDS HAVE REMAINED LIGHT OVERNIGHT FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. THE AREA SEEING THE STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND CONTINUES TO BE LYNN CANAL UP THROUGH TAIYA INLET WITH
SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS AROUND 20 KTS, GUSTING 25 KTS. THESE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER DOWN AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCING WEAKENS. FOR THE REST OF THE INNER
CHANNEL, EXPECT GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS FALLING INTO THE DIURNAL
PATTERN OF INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
DECREASING IN THE EVENING. CLARENCE STRAIT SHOULD SEE WINDS
INCREASE INTO THE DAY THURSDAY AS NW WINDS INCREASE UP TO FRESH TO
STRONG BREEZES, WITH A LIKELY CHANCE OF 25-30 KT GUSTS NEAR THE
SOUTHERN OCEAN ENTRANCE.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES
EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY WITH AN INCREASE TO
MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES FROM CAPE DECISION SOUTHWARD TO THE
DIXON ENTRANCE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN THE SOUTHEAST
GULF IS CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT TO W-NW TODAY, AND W-SW TOMORROW AS
THE NEXT LOW TO IMPACT THE AREA MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BRINGING FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES. THESE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN BY BOTH CAPE SUCKLING AND DOWN SOUTH
TOWARDS DIXON ENTRANCE. SEAS AROUND 6-7 FT IN THE CENTRAL GULF
DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW. WAVES HEIGHT WILL REMAIN CLOSER
TO 5-6 FT ALONG CAPE DECISION DOWN TO DIXON ENTRANCE DUE TO THE
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS BUT THE REST OF THE GULF SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 4-6 FT GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
A GLACIER LAKE RELEASE CONTINUES ON THE SALMON RIVER NEAR HYDER
THIS MORNING WITH RIVER LEVELS STILL RISING AT THE TIME OF
WRITING. DUE TO THE UNKNOWN VOLUME OF WATER IN SUMMIT LAKE, IT IS
UNKNOWN WHEN AN EXACT CREST WILL OCCUR. WITH THE RELEASE HAVING
STARTED AROUND JULY 13TH, A CREST COULD OCCUR OVER THE COMING
DAYS. THE ONLY KNOWN IMPACTS WITH THIS RELEASE WILL BE AN ELEVATED
RIVER, COLDER THAN NORMAL WATER TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL DEBRIS
IN THE WATER SUCH AS TREES.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...NM
LONG TERM...AGP
AVIATION...MJB
MARINE...BAS
HYDROLOGY...SF
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