297
FXAK67 PAJK 231950
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1150 AM AKDT THU JUL 23 2026
UPDATE
WINDS DID NOT SLACKEN OVERNIGHT FOR QUITE AS LONG AS
ORIGINALLY FORECAST IN THE VICINITY OF SKAGWAY. WITH WINDS GUSTING
TO NEAR 40 MPH LATE THIS MORNING, THE WIND ADVISORY FOR SKAGWAY
HAS BEEN UPDATED TO BE IN EFFECT NOW THROUGH 10 PM THURSDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE WINDS PICKING UP A BIT EARLIER, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
THE TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS TO ALSO COME TO AN END SLIGHTLY
EARLIER TONIGHT. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY.
AVIATION.../THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING/
A LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL DISPLACE THE
SOUTHERN RIDGE AND SHIFT WINDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. ONSHORE FLOW IS DRIVING PRECIPITATION, WITH
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF,
LOWERING CIGS ACROSS THE NORTH TO MVFR/IFR, GENERALLY AROUND
2000FT, AND AT SOME SITES DOWN TO 1000FT. COASTAL SITES (PAYA,
PASI, PAKW), INCLUDING PAGS, WILL FACE THE POOREST CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS EVENT, STAYING MOSTLY IFR TODAY, WITH LIFR DIPS
DURING HEAVY SHOWERS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY 03-06Z TODAY, BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO END
THE WARM AND DRY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME, SOME NORTHERN SITES
MAY IMPROVE TO HIGH-END MVFR/LOW-END VFR, BUT THE NORTH IS NOT
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR UNTIL LATE TOMORROW
MORNING. PAGY AND PAHN WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS, WITH 25 KT
SUSTAINED SPEEDS AND 40 KT GUSTS ANTICIPATED IN THE AFTERNOON. NO
LLWS IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME, THOUGH TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE
DUE TO HIGHER SURFACE WIND SPEEDS.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT
556 AM AKDT THU JUL 23 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- ONE MORE SOMEWHAT WARM AND DRY DAY FOR THE SOUTH THURSDAY.
COOLER DAMPER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.
- RAIN AND DRIZZLE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NORTH THROUGH
FRIDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR LYNN CANAL AND SKAGWAY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/ SHORT RANGE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE TREND OF COOLER AND DAMPER WEATHER FOR THE
LATE WEEK PERIOD AS A LOW IN THE NW GULF SLIDES SE THROUGH THE
EASTERN GULF THROUGH FRIDAY. CURRENTLY, ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE HAS SUPPORTED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
OVERNIGHT AS FAR SOUTH AS SITKA AND JUNEAU WITH OVERCAST SKIES
DOWN TO SUMNER STRAIT. SKIES BECOMING MORE BROKEN TO SCATTERED
SOUTH OF SUMNER STRAIT AS THERE IS STILL A LITTLE BIT OF SLIGHTLY
OFFSHORE FLOW THERE, BUT THERE IS MORE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER
MOVING OVERHEAD. N LYNN, SKAGWAY, AND CROSS SOUND ARE STILL THE
BREEZY SPOTS THIS MORNING WITH 15 TO 20 KT WINDS.
THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST WILL MAINLY BE INFLUENCED BY THE LOW THAT
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
ITS MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF RAINFALL AND CLOUD
COVER THAT WILL SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. YAKUTAT SEES THE RAIN RETURN THIS MORNING AND THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE GETS THE REINFORCING SHOT BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE
THE FEATURE THAT BRINGS CLOUDS, COOLER TEMPS, AND RAIN BACK INTO
THE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THOUGH THAT WILL NOT BE
THE CASE UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. BEFORE THAT EXPECT A
SOMEWHAT WARM THURSDAY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF SUMNER STRAIT THOUGH
WITH THE LOWER LEVEL AIR MASS CONTINUING TO BE MORE AND MORE
MARINE INFLUENCED, EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THEN THEY WERE YESTERDAY. THIS FEATURE IS ALSO TIGHTENING
UP THE SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE,
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SKAGWAY AND LYNN CANAL WILL BE THE
MAIN PLACE THAT FEELS THE EFFECTS WITH S WIND UP TO 20 TO 30 KT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR SKAGWAY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WIND GUSTS SHOULD
JUST REACH 40 TO 45 MPH AT THAT TIME WITH PRESSURE GRADIENTS
BETWEEN JUNEAU AND SKAGWAY REACHING AROUND 4 MB.
LONG TERM... /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE ALASKA PANHANDLE SATURDAY. OVERALL, THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR
SATURDAY LOOKS LESS FAVORABLE ALOFT FOR THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
ALASKA FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA MAY BRING SOME STRONGER
WINDS (UP TO 15 KTS) AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES MONDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW, THE LOW LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY
DISORGANIZED, BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS (UP TO 20 KTS) ARE FORECAST
TO BE NEAR CAPE SUCKLING, AS THE GFS HINTS AT A BARRIER JET
FORMATION. AS OF NOW, CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW, BUT IT
IS A POSSIBILITY TO MONITOR.
MARINE...
-OUTER WATERS: THE HIGHEST WINDS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED IN THE
OUTER GULF AND REACHING IN SLIGHTLY TO THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
IN THE GULF, WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 20-25KTS W WITH
WIND SPEEDS OF 10-15KTS ALONG THE INNER COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER,
THE HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING 8FT SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS
TO THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. FRIDAY BRINGS THE
REDUCTION ON WINDS AS A MESO LOW SPINS UP IN THE NORTHERN GULF,
CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE WEAK LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
-INNER WATERS: THURSDAY BRINGS OVERALL HEIGHTENED WINDS ACROSS THE
INNER CHANNELS, ESPECIALLY IN CHANNELS WITH A NORTH/SOUTH
ORIENTATION. THE WINDS TODAY ARE LARGELY DRIVEN BY A SQUEEZING
PRESSURE GRADIENT, EXPECTED TO REACH UP TO 30 KTS SE IN LYNN
CANAL. OTHER CHANNELS TO LOOK OUT FOR ARE GLACIER BAY, CHATHAM
STRAIT, AND STEPHEN'S PASSAGE, ALL EXPECTED TO SEE SOUTHERLY
WINDS UP TO 20KTS. CROSS SOUND INTO ICY STRAIT WILL ALSO CHANNEL
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS, UP TO 20KTS, THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT THURSDAY, WITH LYNN CANAL
DIMINISHING LAST THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ318.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-642>644-651-652-661>664-671-
672.
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...MUSALL
AVIATION...BAS
MARINE...FERRIN
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