701
FXAK67 PAJK 232306
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
306 PM AKDT THU JUL 23 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN AND DRIZZLE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NORTH THROUGH
FRIDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR LYNN CANAL AND SKAGWAY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- DEVELOPING LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BRING ENHANCED RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH
LIGHTER RAIN CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.
- SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS TO START
THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE RIDGE THAT HAD PROVIDED
RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA EARLIER IN THE WEEK
CONTINUES TO BE ERODED BY ANOTHER MORE ROBUST FRONT MOVING INTO THE
AREA THIS THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE ENHANCED BY LEE SIDE
TROUGHING AS A CIRCULATION IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF DEVELOPING
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF WEST OF YAKUTAT AS OF THIS DISCUSSION. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE GRADUALLY SLIDING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF INTO FRIDAY.
AS THE PARENT LOW CONTINUES MARCHING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE YUKON, THE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVER FAR NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS,
WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO PEAK SOMETIME THIS EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 PM FOR SKAGWAY, WITH GUSTY BUT NOT
QUITE AS STRONG WINDS FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD FOR HAINES BOROUGH,
PARTICULARLY THE CHILKAT PENINSULA. WHILE AN INITIAL WAVE OF LIGHT
RAIN HAS ALREADY IMPROVED IN OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE BY THIS AFTERNOON, CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPING LOW WILL BRING PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN TO THE NORTHERN
OUTER COAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD WITH SLIGHTLY HEAVIER RAINFALL ON TAP FOR ICY STRAIT AND
THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH THE NIGHT THURSDAY.
ONCE THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF DEVELOPS FURTHER, THIS INITIAL
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LOSE MOMENTUM AND PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY FURTHER INLAND. HOWEVER, COOLER AIR BEING
DRAWN IN BY THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY WITH FURTHER LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE,
PARTICULARLY FOR THE OUTER COAST. THESE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TREND
SOUTHWARD ALONG WITH THE LOW CIRCULATION SATURDAY, WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE DISAGREEING ON THE FURTHEST EXTENT OF THIS MOVEMENT.
OVERALL THOUGH, THE TREND WILL BE FOR DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES FOR
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND OUTER COAST ALONG WITH POTENTIALS FOR
MORE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES, THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MODERATE DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE HAVING A GOOD CHANCE TO SEE HIGHS REBOUND TO THE MID 60S
AS CLOUDS THIN OUT. THE PANHANDLE SOUTH OF ICY STRAIT WILL LIKELY BE
TEMPERATE, BUT CONTINUED CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PUT A DAMPER ON
FURTHER 'SUMMER LIKE' TEMPERATURES FOR MOST AREAS.
LONG TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT,
WHICH MAY LEAD TO CONVECTIVE SHOWERS FROM CANADA MOVING INTO
SOUTHEAST ALASKA ON SUNDAY. AS OF NOW, CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING IS LOW DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT, BUT IT IS CERTAINLY
SOMETHING TO WATCH. THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE IN SOME STRONGER
WINDS (UP TO 20 KTS) FROM DIXON ENTRANCE INTO CLARENCE STRAIT, AND
NORTHERLY WINDS IN LYNN CANAL. BY SUNDAY EVENING, THE NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHERLY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
FLIPS.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER
WESTWARD FROM HAIDA GWAII THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY DISORGANIZED, BUT STILL WILL ALLOW
US TO HAVE RAIN CHANCES AND PERHAPS SOME STRONGER WINDS FOR THE
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS (CLARENCE STRAIT AND SOUTHERN CHATHAM
STRAIT).
AVIATION.../THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/
A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON, AHEAD
OF A LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF. LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER
OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TOMORROW, THOUGH CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO AOA 3500FT. ALMOST ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 00Z, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PAKW,
WHERE MARINE INFLUENCE WILL CAUSE A DELAY IN IMPROVEMENT AND WILL
CONTINUE TO STAY AOB 2500FT. STRONGEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN REGION, PARTICULARLY NEAR PAGY AND PAHN,
WHERE GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND STAY AT 15 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
REGION WILL BEGIN SHIFTING FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE
A FRONT IS TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND HAS CAUSED WINDS THROUGH LYNN CANAL TO INCREASE TO 25-30KT AS
EXPECTED. OTHER LOCATIONS HAVEN'T HAD OBSERVATIONS AS STRONG AS
EXPECTED, SUCH AS GLACIER BAY AND CROSS SOUND, BUT BASED ON THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT (GUSTIER
WINDS) HAVE OPTED TO KEEP AT LEAST 20KT WINDS IN THESE AREAS TO ERR
ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND THAT WINDS COULD BE STRONGER AWAY FROM
THE FEW OBSERVATION POINTS AVAILABLE.
A LOW CENTER IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OFF THE COAST OF PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT CAUSING WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TO INCREASE 20-
30KT AND SEAS BUILDING 8-13FT LATE. THE LOW CENTER WILL STEADILY
TRACK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF ON FRIDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO
EASE AND TURN OUT OF THE NORTH.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ318.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-022-053-641>644-651-652-
661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...MUSALL
AVIATION...BAS
MARINE...FERRIN
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page