461
FXAK67 PAJK 241352
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
552 AM AKDT FRI JUL 24 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN CONTINUING FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLE TODAY AS A LOW AND
FRONT SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.
- SOME CLEARING FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY, WITH
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH.
- WETTER AND COOLER TREND CONTINUES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS MULTIPLE FRONTS AND TROUGHS PUSH NORTH INTO THE
PANHANDLE.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
RAIN AND OVERCAST SKIES WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE TODAY AS A SLOW SLIDES SOUTH
INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. RAIN
WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS
FURTHER SOUTH AND DRIER AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PULLS INTO
THE PANHANDLE. SHOWERS WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE PANHANDLE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS FRONT/TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW OUT IN THE GULF PULLS NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION. YAKUTAT WILL BECOME MOSTLY DRY TODAY AND THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS FLOW WITH DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY FOR HAINES AND SKAGWAY. NORTHERLY OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE AS THE
LOW/FRONT SHIFT SOUTH. COOL TODAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF SUNSHINE, ESPECIALLY NORTH, AND OFFSHORE WINDS WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.
LONG TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT,
WHICH MAY LEAD TO CONVECTIVE SHOWERS FROM CANADA MOVING INTO
SOUTHEAST ALASKA ON SUNDAY. AS OF NOW, CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING IS LOW DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT, BUT IT IS CERTAINLY
SOMETHING TO WATCH. THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE IN SOME STRONGER
WINDS (UP TO 20 KTS) FROM DIXON ENTRANCE INTO CLARENCE STRAIT, AND
NORTHERLY WINDS IN LYNN CANAL. BY SUNDAY EVENING, THE NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHERLY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
FLIPS.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER
WESTWARD FROM HAIDA GWAII THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY DISORGANIZED, BUT STILL WILL ALLOW
US TO HAVE RAIN CHANCES AND PERHAPS SOME STRONGER WINDS FOR THE
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS (CLARENCE STRAIT AND SOUTHERN CHATHAM
STRAIT).
AVIATION.../12Z TAFS/
CONDITIONS HAVE SLOWLY BEEN IMPROVING
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE
REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BAND LINGER. LIGHT RAIN AND MIST ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN SITES, WITH
COASTAL LOCATIONS SEEING CLEARING BEFORE INNER TAF SITES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO LINGER LONGER IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. TAF
SITES ARE EXPECTED TO TREND TOWARDS VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOST
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO HAVE HIGH CLOUD BASES OR CLEAR SKIES ONCE
THE RAIN MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL, BECOMING PREDOMINATELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WITH A STRONGER NORTHERLY EMPHASIS AROUND 6Z TONIGHT. WINDS AT
PAGY AND POTENTIALLY PAHN WILL BE BETWEEN 10-15KTS BEFORE CALMING
TONIGHT.
MARINE
OUTER WATERS: A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY CAUSING WINDS TO
DIMINISH AND BECOME VERY VARIABLE IN DIRECTION. THIS LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT,
BRINGING THE VARIABILITY AND LIGHT WINDS WITH IS. THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WINDS IN THE GULF ARE OVERALL EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 15 KT
AND SHIFT IN DIRECTION AS THERE IS NO WELL DEFINED SURFACE FEATURE
EXPECTED TO DRIVE A CONSISTENT DIRECTION. SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL, BECOMING
4-6 FT BY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS, SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY BELOW 5 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
INNER CHANNELS: WINDS ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES IN AND
COMPLETELY BREAKS APART THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS IS GOING TO
CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY FRIDAY EVENING. THEN,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA, AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD, A
PRESSURE GRADIENT FAVORING NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL SET UP.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO A NORTH DIRECTION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH A PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP
AGAIN, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN LYNN CANAL ON
SATURDAY, UP TO 20-25KTS. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER
THE PANHANDLE AGAIN, CAUSING A SOUTHERLY SHIFT ON SUNDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-031-053-641>644-651-652-
661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MUSALL
AVIATION...AGP
MARINE...AGP
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