180
FXAK67 PAJK 241814
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1014 AM AKDT FRI JUL 24 2026
UPDATE
TO THE AVIATION SECTION FOLLOWING THE 18Z TAF
ISSUANCE...
AVIATION.../THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING/
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TODAY, IT LEAVES BEHIND BKN TO SCT
SKIES AND AREAS OF LIGHT, INTERMITTENT RAIN OVER NORTHERN INLAND
AREAS. LAST NIGHT MULTIPLE LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE REGION
EXPERIENCED WORSENING CONDITIONS, WITH BOTH VSBYS AND CIGS
DROPPING, IN SOME CASES LESS THAN 1000 FT AND DOWN TO 1 SM. THIS
PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH TODAY
AS RAIN SHOWERS STEADILY TRACK SOUTHWARD, CONDITIONS DROPPING AS
HEAVIER SHOWERS PASS. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS SOUTH OF ICY STRAIT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY MVFR THIS MORNING, WITH VFR LIKELY BY
THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING. WHILE ALL SITES SHOULD SEE
IMPROVEMENTS LATER TODAY, A RETURN OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH IS FORECAST FOR LATE TOMORROW MORNING, THOUGH
SHOULD NOT IMPACT VBSYS, AND CIGS AOA 2500 FT EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND SHIFT TO A PRIMARILY NORTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE OUTER COAST.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT
552 AM AKDT FRI JUL 24 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN CONTINUING FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLE TODAY AS A LOW AND
FRONT SLIDES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.
- SOME CLEARING FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY, WITH
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH.
- WETTER AND COOLER TREND CONTINUES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS MULTIPLE FRONTS AND TROUGHS PUSH NORTH INTO THE
PANHANDLE.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...RAIN AND OVERCAST SKIES WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE TODAY AS A LOW SLIDES SOUTH
INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. RAIN
WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS
FURTHER SOUTH AND DRIER AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PULLS INTO
THE PANHANDLE. SHOWERS WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE PANHANDLE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS FRONT/TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW OUT IN THE GULF PULLS NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION. YAKUTAT WILL BECOME MOSTLY DRY TODAY AND THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS FLOW WITH DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY FOR HAINES AND SKAGWAY. NORTHERLY OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE AS THE
LOW/FRONT SHIFT SOUTH. COOL TODAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF SUNSHINE, ESPECIALLY NORTH, AND OFFSHORE WINDS WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.
LONG TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT,
WHICH MAY LEAD TO CONVECTIVE SHOWERS FROM CANADA MOVING INTO
SOUTHEAST ALASKA ON SUNDAY. AS OF NOW, CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING IS LOW DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT, BUT IT IS CERTAINLY
SOMETHING TO WATCH. THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE IN SOME STRONGER
WINDS (UP TO 20 KTS) FROM DIXON ENTRANCE INTO CLARENCE STRAIT, AND
NORTHERLY WINDS IN LYNN CANAL. BY SUNDAY EVENING, THE NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHERLY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
FLIPS.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER
WESTWARD FROM HAIDA GWAII THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY DISORGANIZED, BUT STILL WILL ALLOW
US TO HAVE RAIN CHANCES AND PERHAPS SOME STRONGER WINDS FOR THE
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS (CLARENCE STRAIT AND SOUTHERN CHATHAM
STRAIT).
MARINE...
OUTER WATERS: A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY CAUSING WINDS TO
DIMINISH AND BECOME VERY VARIABLE IN DIRECTION. THIS LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT,
BRINGING THE VARIABILITY AND LIGHT WINDS WITH IS. THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WINDS IN THE GULF ARE OVERALL EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 15 KT
AND SHIFT IN DIRECTION AS THERE IS NO WELL DEFINED SURFACE FEATURE
EXPECTED TO DRIVE A CONSISTENT DIRECTION. SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL, BECOMING
4-6 FT BY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS, SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY BELOW 5 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
INNER CHANNELS: WINDS ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES IN AND
COMPLETELY BREAKS APART THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS IS GOING TO
CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY FRIDAY EVENING. THEN,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA, AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD, A
PRESSURE GRADIENT FAVORING NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL SET UP.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO A NORTH DIRECTION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH A PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP
AGAIN, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN LYNN CANAL ON
SATURDAY, UP TO 20-25KTS. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER
THE PANHANDLE AGAIN, CAUSING A SOUTHERLY SHIFT ON SUNDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-641>644-651-661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MUSALL
AVIATION...BAS
MARINE...AGP
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