424
FXAK67 PAJK 250538
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
938 PM AKDT FRI JUL 24 2026
AVIATION...06Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE MOST PREVALENT THIS
EVENING. A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE OCCURRING, MAINLY
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, WHERE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
ARE ALSO PERSISTING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND BRING SOME MORE CLOUDS TO THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE, ALTHOUGH PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. MEANWHILE, FARTHER SOUTH, AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CEILINGS AND SOME SHOWERS.
SURFACE WINDS SPEEDS WILL MAINLY BE 10KT OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD, EXCEPT AT PAGY, WHERE ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS UP TO
25KT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT...405 PM AKDT FRI JUL 24 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GENERAL IMPROVING TREND ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
- RAIN RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH AND PROGRESSING NORTHWARD LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY.
- MULTIPLE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA NEXT WEEK, BRINGING RAIN
TO THE AREA ONCE MORE.
SHORT TERM...A LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE BECOMING MOSTLY STATIONARY. AS
THIS LOW MOVES SOUTH, DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
THIS COUPLED WITH THE START OF SOME DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND OFFSHORE
FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
AND PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE. THIS TREND OF CLEARING WILL SPREAD
SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER, A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN
ALASKA AND MAY CLIP THE NORTHERN MOST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL MOSTLY BE A SOURCE OF CLOUDS, BUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OVER TERRAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF SATURDAY.
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF BECOMES
MOSTLY STATIONARY, AN EASTERLY WAVE APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AND WILL PROGRESS NORTHWARD
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE STALLING
OUT. THIS WAVE WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE PANHANDLE. IN
ADDITION TO THE LIGHT RAIN, SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS FOR THE
NORTHERN COMMUNITIES IS LIKELY DUE TO A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
WHILE CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY BE ON THE IMPROVING TREND LATER
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN STEREOTYPICAL FOR
SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND REMAIN DAMP.
LONG TERM... /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEAR HAIDA GWAII IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER WESTWARD BEFORE ANOTHER
LOW FORMS NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THE SECONDARY LOW NEAR
ANCHORAGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD, AND PUSH THE INITIAL LOW
CLOSER TO THE ALASKA PANHANDLE NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS THAT A FAIRLY
WET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
DICTATE WHO HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA. AS OF NOW, THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LOOKS TO
HAVE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES, AND PERHAPS SOME STRONGER WINDS (UP
TO 20 KTS) IN CLARENCE STRAIT. OVERALL, THE RAINFALL TOTALS DON'T
LOOK PARTICULARLY IMPACTFUL, BUT IT WILL BE MONITORED FOR FUTURE
FORECAST UPDATES.
MARINE...
OUTER COASTAL WATERS: A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS CONTINUING TO MOVE
ALONG THE GULF COAST TONIGHT CAUSING WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BEFORE SHIFTING TO STRONGER NORTHERLIES. TOMORROW, WINDS
ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES DUE TO A WEAK OUTFLOW PATTERN SET UP. THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WINDS IN THE GULF ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
15KT AND VARY IN DIRECTION AS THERE IS NO WELL DEFINED SURFACE
FEATURE EXPECTED TO DRIVE A CONSISTENT DIRECTION. SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
WELL, BECOMING 4-6FT BY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS,
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY BELOW 5FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
INNER CHANNELS: WINDS ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTH AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. THEN, WITH HIGH PRESSURE DIPPING
SOUTH FROM THE YUKON, AND REMNANT LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE, A PRESSURE GRADIENT FAVORING NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS
WILL SET UP. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTH LYNN CANAL
ON SATURDAY, UP TO 20-25KTS, IN THE MORNING AND LINGERING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX AGAIN ON SUNDAY,
CAUSING A DECREASE IN WINDS, SHIFTING FOCUS TO SOUTHERN CLARENCE
STRAIT WHERE A CONVERGENCE OF WINDS THROUGH DIXON ENTRANCE WILL
PROMOTE STRENGTHENING FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.
SHORT TERM...BUTWIN
LONG TERM...MUSALL
AVIATION...MJB
MARINE...BAS
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