392
FXAK67 PAJK 251835
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1035 AM AKDT SAT JUL 25 2026
UPDATE
QUICK FORECAST UPDATE AND 18Z AVIATION UPDATE
PRIMARY FOCUS SATURDAY MORNING REMAINS IN ELEVATED NORTHERLY
WINDS IN LYNN CANAL ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. EXPECT STRONG BREEZES (22 TO 27 KNOTS) TO PERSIST IN LYNN
BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER THIS LATE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM
FORECAST REMAINS A TRICKY ENDEAVOR, WITH MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOCUSED IN THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE; AT THE TIME OF THIS AFD WE HAVE
PLACED 15 PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE CENTRAL
REGION. THREATS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE CELLS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS,
PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN, AND THE CHANCE FOR A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR
TWO.
AVIATION.../THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/...CURRENTLY, AN MVFR CLOUD
DECK IS POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION AND IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON. CIGS IN THE SOUTH WILL FLUCTUATE NEAR 3000 FT AS
SHOWERS ADVANCE FROM THE SOUTH, DROPPING LOWER DURING HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS ALONGSIDE POTENTIAL VSBY REDUCTIONS. THE PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONTAL BAND INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE WILL COMBINE WITH
HIGHER TERRAIN TO TRIGGER GUSTY WINDS AND MORE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.
BEHIND THIS FRONT, CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE, LIKELY REACHING VFR BY LATE TODAY WITH ONLY
ISOLATED, LIGHT RAIN REMAINING. A SOUTHERLY WIND SHIFT IS
ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
INITIAL FRONTAL BAND. MEANWHILE, NORTHERN TAF SITES WILL
EXPERIENCE PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS. NORTHERLY PREVAILING
WINDS DRIVEN BY PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCING WILL INCREASE FROM THIS
MORNING INTO MIDDAY BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO A SEA BREEZE DIRECTION
THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS IN THE SOUTH
BEGIN TO INCREASE TOMORROW (15-20 KTS IN CLARENCE STRAIT) AS AN
EASTERLY WAVE APPROACHES.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 455 AM AKDT JUL 25 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARMER AND DRIER WITH DECREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE SATURDAY.
- RAIN RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH AND PROGRESSING NORTHWARD LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY.
- MULTIPLE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA NEXT WEEK, BRINGING RAIN
TO THE AREA.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES
TO SLIDE SOUTH AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND WILL STALL
THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE CLEARING IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTH,
ABUNDANT MARINE LAYER CLOUDS PERSISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. NORTH OF THE LOW, DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND OFFSHORE FLOW
WINDS WILL BRING DRIER AIR AND CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY,
WITH PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE LOW WILL THEN MEANDER OFF THE COAST IN THE EASTERN GULF
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
LOW AND INTO THE PANHANDLE. AN EASTERLY WAVE APPROACHES THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AND WILL
PROGRESS NORTHWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE STALLING OUT. RAIN WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT,
HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH
GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LIFTING WAVE WITH COLDER
TEMPS ALOFT AND A POCKET OF WEAK INSTABILITY, ALONG WITH SOME
MODEST FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE PEAK
DAYTIME HEATING HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF
THE FORECAST FOR NOW AS THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE RAIN WILL BE
LIMITED.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN, SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS FOR THE
NORTHERN COMMUNITIES IS LIKELY DUE TO A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY DUE TO THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND CLEARING
SKIES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE
60S AND POSSIBLY REACHING 70. SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SUNDAY DUE TO
THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND LINGERING RAIN.
WHILE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE DRIFTS
NORTH AND WEAKENS, SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK WAVES ALONG THE EASTERN
FLANK OF THE LOW OUT IN THE GULF WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEAR HAIDA GWAII IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER WESTWARD BEFORE ANOTHER
LOW FORMS NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THE SECONDARY LOW NEAR
ANCHORAGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD, AND PUSH THE INITIAL LOW
CLOSER TO THE ALASKA PANHANDLE NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS THAT A FAIRLY
WET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
DICTATE WHO HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA. AS OF NOW, THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LOOKS TO
HAVE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES, AND PERHAPS SOME STRONGER WINDS (UP
TO 20 KTS) IN CLARENCE STRAIT. OVERALL, THE RAINFALL TOTALS DON'T
LOOK PARTICULARLY IMPACTFUL, BUT IT WILL BE MONITORED FOR FUTURE
FORECAST UPDATES.
MARINE...
OUTER COASTAL WATERS: A BROAD SURFACE LOW HAS SETTLED EAST OF
DIXON ENTRANCE THIS MORNING AND HAS TURNED THE PREVAILING WIND
DIRECTION TO BE N-NE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WAS
VERY WEAK OVERNIGHT ALLOWING SEAS AND WIND SPEEDS TO DECREASE OR
REMAIN STEADY. AS THE LOW LINGERS TO THE SOUTH AND HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE YUKON, SOME NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR YAKUTAT BAY AND ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST, BUT HAVE
LIMITED THE SUSTAINED WINDS IN THESE AREAS TO 15 KT DUE TO THE
TIME OF YEAR AND LACK OF COLD AIR TO ACCELERATE THE WINDS THROUGH
THE PASSES. LOOKING AHEAD TO MONDAY, A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
GULF FROM THE WEST WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTH TO
REDEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN. WINDS IN VICINITY OF DIXON ENTRANCE AND
CLARENCE STRAIT WERE INCREASED TO 25KT FOR MONDAY AND MAY NEED TO
BE EXTENDED FURTHER INTO TUESDAY.
INNER CHANNELS: LARGELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE INNER
CHANNELS OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER NORTHERLIES ARE STARTING TO TICK UP
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS. AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO RISE IN THE YUKON AND PRESSURE IS FALLING ACROSS THE
SOUTH, EXPECT THE NORTHERLY WINDS TO BE THE PREVAILING DIRECTION.
SOME MODELS WERE FAVORING MUCH STRONGER WINDS (25-30KT) FOR
PLACES LIKE ELDRED ROCK AND OUT OF THE NORTHERN ARMS OF GLACIER
BAY, BUT BASED ON THE TIME OF YEAR AND NO COLD AIR DRIVING THE
WINDS, HAVE OPTED TO REDUCE THE PEAK WINDS IN THESE AREAS BY ABOUT
5KT. AS A RESULT, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED FOR N.
LYNN. ANOTHER FACTOR TO LOWERING THE WIND SPEEDS IS THE SEA
BREEZE INFLUENCE THAT SHOULD BE A FACTOR THIS AFTERNOON TO COUNTER
THE NORTH WIND FOR LYNN CANAL. CONVERSELY, THE SEA BREEZE
(GLACIER BREEZE) WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED FOR GLACIER BAY AND
YAKUTAT BAY THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS, THE
N-NE OUTFLOW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO THE SE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS A COLDER AIRMASS DEVELOPS UNDER THE LOW PRESSURE AND
RAIN SHOWERS HELP TO DRIVE IT DOWN, CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT OUT OF
THE SE. AS FRONTAL BANDS PROGRESSIVELY TRACK NORTHWARD OVER THE
WEEKEND, THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SE FOR THE REST
OF THE AREA AND MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS AS THAT OCCURS IN THE
SHOWERS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.
SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM...MUSALL
AVIATION...BAS
MARINE...FERRIN
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