371
FXAK67 PAJK 261249
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
449 AM AKDT SUN JUL 26 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- COOLER WITH RAIN SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TODAY.
- MULTIPLE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA NEXT WEEK, BRINGING RAIN
TO THE AREA. BEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT /
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND TROUGHING OUT OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SEND
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. THE STEADIER
BAND OF RAIN IS CURRENTLY LIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE. SHOWERY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE BEHIND THE WAVE AS IT LIFTS NORTH AND WEAKEN.
WHILE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE DRIFTS
NORTH AND WEAKENS, SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND WAVES ALONG
THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE LOW OUT IN THE GULF WILL KEEP THE THREAT
OF SHOWERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE
LOW OUT IN THE GULF APPROACHING HAIDA GWAII LATER MONDAY, BRINGING
AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STEADIER, MODERATE RAIN LIFTING NORTH
INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MONDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN, COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. ELEVATED OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS
THE NORTH THIS MORNING BECOME SOUTHERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
WAVES LIFT NORTH. SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL
ACROSS SEAK, WITH OCCASIONALLY BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE.
LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED FRONT LOOKS TO BRING RAIN AREA WIDE AND STRONGER
WINDS TO DIXON ENTRANCE TO CLARENCE STRAIT (UP TO 20 KTS). THAT
INITIAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO WEAKEN WEDNESDAY, BEFORE IT INTERACTS WITH
ANOTHER SYSTEM NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND ONCE AGAIN INCREASES
RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY.
BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THESE SYSTEMS, THEY LOOK TO BRING THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOTALS AND HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS TO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. THE WEATHER PATTERN OVERALL IS LOOKING FAIRLY WET FOR THE
END OF JULY. WHILE THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE LOOKS TO BE A BIT DRIER,
SOME NORTHERN INLAND LOCATION COULD HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO PUSH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT,
BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS AS LOW AS 600 FT WITH AREAS
OF LOWERED VIS. SHOWER STRENGTH HAS WEAKENED AS THE LOW CONTINUES
TO PULL NORTH, THOUGH A MORE ORGANIZED BAND IS CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY RELATIVELY VFR FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. BEHIND THIS BAND,
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND EVENTUALLY FOR THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY FOR
HEAVIER BANDS OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THROUGH SUNDAY, PARTICULARLY
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH BROKEN CIGS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE
END OF THE PERIOD, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME NORTHERN
LOCATIONS SUCH AS PAGS TO SEE SOME SHORT-LIVED FOG DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY FOR A
LOW MARINE LAYER TO PUSH INTO PAYA DURING THIS TIME.
MARINE
OUTSIDE WATERS: A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARDS BRITISH COLUMBIA, OCCASIONALLY PUSHING FRONTAL
BANDS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEKEND.
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES WITH ASSOCIATED 5 FT WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY ALONG THE COAST AND PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY. EARLY NEXT WEEK, A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GULF FROM THE
WEST WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTH TO REDEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN, THEN TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST.
THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS NEAR DIXON ENTRANCE
AND FURTHER NORTH TOWARD CAPE DECISION. WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN
CAPPED TO SLIGHTLY BELOW 25 KTS, AS THEIR STRENGTH LARGELY DEPENDS
ON THE CONVERGENCE THROUGH DIXON ENTRANCE. SEAS INCREASE TO 6-8
FT NEAR THE SOUTHERN OCEAN ENTRANCES AND COASTAL WATERS, AT A
PERIOD OF AROUND 4 TO 6 SECONDS. LINGERING CONDITIONS LOOK TO
LARGELY DIMINISH THROUGH TUESDAY.
INNER CHANNELS: NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS HAVE
PREVAILED OVERNIGHT IN LYNN CANAL, AND ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES NORTHWARD
INTO THE AREA THROUGH LATE MORNING. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH AS THEY
SWITCH DIRECTIONS, BUT WITH THE HELP OF SEA BREEZES, SHOULD
INCREASE BACK UP TO 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SOUTH
TO CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS ARE CURRENTLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
WINDS MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE LOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THOUGH REMAINING RELATIVELY CALM OVERNIGHT,
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN SOUTHERN CLARENCE STRAIT ARE EXPECTED TO
STEADILY INCREASE INTO MONDAY AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE REST OF THE INNER CHANNELS MAY FEEL S TO SE WINDS INCREASE
THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT SHOULD DIMINISH AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY BRING PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS AS
THEY BLOW OVER THE AREA. AS THE PARENT LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT
NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WINDS MAY SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTH FOR A PERIOD BUT REMAIN LIGHT.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MUSALL
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...ZTK/BAS
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