133
FXAK67 PAJK 270534
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
934 PM AKDT SUN JUL 26 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED 06Z AVIATION SECTION.
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- COOLER WITH RAIN SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, WIND
GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH EXPECTED WITHIN NORTHERN LYNN CANAL
NORTHWARD TO HAINES AND SKAGWAY THROUGH THE EVENING.
- MULTIPLE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA NEXT WEEK, BRINGING RAIN
TO THE AREA. BEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE.
SHORT TERM
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL STALL
ACROSS THE AREA, DOMINATING SOUTHEAST’S WEATHER, RESPONSIBLE FOR
CONTINUED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH AND PERIODS OF ELEVATED WINDS
ALONG THE COAST/THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS. ONE ITEM OF INTEREST
IS WHERE WARM AND DRY COULD SET UP, WITH EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
COAST RANGE ALLOWING THE FAR NORTH, INCLUDING YAKUTAT, TO SEE SOME
CLEARER CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS HEADING BACK INTO THE LOW 70S/MID
70S. TRYING TO KEEP THINGS SIMPLE, AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY FOLKS
NORTH OF A LINE FROM SITKA-ANGOON-CAPE FANSHAW WILL LIKELY SEE
LIGHTER RAIN SHOWERS, WITH WARMER AND DRIER MOVING NORTH TOWARD
HAINES, SKAGWAY, AND YAKUTAT. ALONG AND SOUTH OF FREDERICK SOUND
WE WILL LIKELY SEE PERIODS OF MORE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN AS
LOWS KEEP MOVING INTO THE GULF. BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN
EXISTS MIDWEEK, SEE LONG TERM.
LONG TERM
A PERSISTENT, POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA TRACKS
EASTWARD, THIS TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED-OFF LOW BEFORE
WEAKENING AND MOVING OUT OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY. SIMULTANEOUSLY,
A SURFACE LOW ORIGINATING FROM PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL STALL
JUST WEST OF HAIDA GWAII, GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS ITS UPPER-LEVEL
SUPPORT WANES. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN BANDS OF RAIN PUSHING
NORTHWARD, PRIMARILY IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND COAST
RANGE, THOUGH PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SEASONABLY NORMAL, WITH THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS ON WEDNESDAY AND
POSSIBLY FRIDAY. WHILE THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE REMAINS
PREDOMINANTLY WET AND SHOWERY UNDER PERSISTENT SE'RLY FLOW, THE
NORTH GULF COAST IS EXPECTED TO SEE A BREAK IN HEAVIER
RAIN SHOWERS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. AS THE SURFACE LOW
DISSIPATES SOUTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND A RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD, NORTHERLY WINDS AND WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES OVER THE
NORTHERN AND INLAND PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE MAY LEAD TO DOWN
SLOPING AND WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S NEAR
YAKUTAT, SKAGWAY, HAINES, AND HYDER. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW, THOUGH THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN RESOLVING LOCAL WIND CONVERGENCE THROUGH DIXON
ENTRANCE INTO SOUTHERN CLARENCE STRAIT. WHILE WINDS WILL LIKELY
SEE THEIR MOST SIGNIFICANT PUSH NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY, CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 20KTS OR LESS,
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AFTERWARDS.
AVIATION
A FRONT IS EXITING INTO THE YUKON, CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY OVER
HAINES AND SKAGWAY AT TIME OF WRITING. THE THERMAL GRADIENT THAT
HAS PLAGUED THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WITH STRONGER WINDS IS
EXPECTED TO FULLY COLLAPSE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, DECOUPLING TO
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. WITH CONTINUED RAINFALL HOWEVER, THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING CLOUD DECK AOB 1000 FT. FOR THE
NE GULF COAST, HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR A CLOUD DECK AOB 1000 FT WITH
IFR CONDITIONS FROM PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW. FOR THE
ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR, SHOULD HAVE SOME CLEARING TOMORROW WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING. FOR THE FAR SOUTH,
CONTINUED RAIN SHOWERS WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS SPECIFICALLY FOR THE
KETCHIKAN AREA. BIGGEST CONCERN ARE THE HEAVIER SHOWERS, WITH MAY
BRING CIGS DOWN TO LOW MVFR FOR BOTH CIGS AND VIS FOR SHORT
PERIODS OF TIME.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS):
SUNDAY LATE MORNING, OUR SUITE OF OBSERVATIONS SHOWCASE SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF MODERATE BREEZES ACROSS MOST OF OUR COAST, WITH CAPE ST.
ELIAS REPORTING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF MODERATE BREEZES. SEA
STATE IS CURRENTLY DOMINATED BY THREE WAVE SYSTEMS, THE DOMINATE
IS SOUTH SWELL OF AN IMPRESSIVE 20+ SECONDS, A SECONDARY SOUTHEAST
SWELL AT 15 SECONDS, AND WIND WAVES AT 7 TO 9 SECONDS. COMBINED
THESE GROUPS ARE BRINGING SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 3 TO 5 FT.
MOVING THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS EXPAND ACROSS
OUR COAST AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARD HAIDA GWAII. FOR AREAS
NORTH OF CAPE EDGECUMBE, EXPECTING WINDS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW
MODERATE BREEZES, WITH THE LOW BEGINNING TO PULL NORTHERLY WINDS
OUT OF CHATHAM STRAIT MONDAY EVENING. FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE
DECISION EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF MODERATE TO FRESH
BREEZES, WITH EASTERLY WINDS BUILDING MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN
POW AND DIXON ENTRANCE.
TOUCHING ON WAVES, ANTICIPATE A BUILDING WIND WAVE REGIME,
PARTICULARLY WEST OF THE SITKA COAST AND PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND.
THIS WAVE GROUP WILL TRY TO MASK UNDERLING PROMINENT SOUTHERLY
SWELL; HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 4 TO 6
FT, WITH 6FT MORE LIKELY WEST OF DIXON ENTRANCE AND THE POW
COAST.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS):
PRIMARY CHALLENGE SUNDAY MORNING WAS THE TIMING FOR SOUTHEAST
WINDS IN LYNN CANAL AS A WEAK FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA. AS OF
THIS WRITING, SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE FINALLY PUSHED THROUGH LYNN,
WITH SPEEDS OF MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES BRING REPORTED. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE INSIDE, WINDS ARE LARGELY AT OR BELOW MODERATE
BREEZES, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING CLARENCE STRAIT, WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS CONTINUING TO BUILD TO FRESH BREEZES.
AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY, SOUTHERLY WINDS
SLOWLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE INSIDE BUT REMAIN SOUTH, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOUTHERN CLARENCE STRAIT WITH CONTINUED MODERATE
BREEZES FROM THE SOUTH. AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARD HAIDA GWAII
MONDAY EVENING, WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY AGAIN THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS, WITH BUILDING NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
IN SOUTHERN CLARENCE/DIXON. MARINERS TRANSITING THE INSIDE
PASSAGE LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE AWARE OF
BUILDING NORTHEAST WINDS OF MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES FOR
SOUTHERN CLARENCE STRAIT AND REVILLA CHANNEL (REVILLAGIGEDO
CHANNEL). FURTHERMORE, NORTHERLY WINDS OF FRESH BREEZES IS
FORECASTED IN SOUTHERN CHATHAM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM...BAS
AVIATION...NC
MARINE...AP
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