805
FXAK67 PAJK 280558 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
958 PM AKDT MON JUL 27 2026
UPDATE
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR 6Z TAF ISSUANCE.
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWERS CONTINUING TODAY WITH PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TUESDAY.
- ANOTHER LOW AND FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH AND SPREAD
STEADIER RAIN INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY,
THEN FURTHER NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT.
- LIGHTER WINDS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL, WITH OCCASIONALLY BREEZY
WINDS FOR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND NEAR SKAGWAY.
SHORT TERM...PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE HAS
ALLOWED FOR SOME MORE DAYTIME HEATING AND THUS INSTABILITY,
LEADING TO SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE ICY STRAIT
CORRIDOR AND SOUTHWARD TO ANGOON AND SITKA. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING HOURS, WITH CLOUD COVER DIMINISHING ONCE
MORE. FOR THE PANHANDLE SOUTH OF FREDERICK SOUND, A LOW
APPROACHING HAIDA GWAII WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD INTO DIXON
ENTRANCE TONIGHT BRINGING A MORE STEADY DOSE OF SHOWERS SPREADING
NORTHWARD INTO TUESDAY. OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT COMBINED WITH
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION ALOFT IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE MORE
ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE. EVEN WITHOUT
THUNDER THOUGH, THE PRIMARY MESSAGE IS THESE HEAVIER SHOWERS
COULD PROVE HAZARDOUS TO THOSE ON THE WATER DUE TO QUICK DROPS IN
VISIBILITY AS WELL AS GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS IN THE VICINITY.
WHILE THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD FOR THESE HEAVIER SHOWERS IS
PRIMARILY EXPECTED FROM PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND EASTWARD ALL THE
WAY TO HYDER, THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW COULD PUSH THEM
AS FAR NORTH AS FREDERICK SOUND BY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES.
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS
THE LOW PROGRESSES NORTHWARD, HOWEVER FROM ICY STRAIT NORTHWARD
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL ASIDE FROM FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS POPPING UP IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AFTERNOON HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO THE MID TO UPPER
60S, WHILE THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE CAN EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S, WITH LITTLE VARIATION OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY
LOOKS TO BE A SMALL BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THIS FIRST ONE
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND FALL APART AS IT MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY.
SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE ON THE CONTINUING
UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK.
LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A GENERALLY WETTER
PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE FOR SE AK THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THERE WILL BE A FEW DRIER BREAKS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTH, BUT
OTHERWISE RAIN CONTINUES. THURSDAY MORNING WILL START OFF A LITTLE
DRIER BEFORE A LOW, SENDS A FEW ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE
PANHANDLE. THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS WILL BE OVER THE SOUTH, BUT THERE
IS STILL HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE EXACT TOTALS. CURRENTLY THE SPREAD
FOR THURSDAY, OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE IN A 24 HOUR TIME SPAN, IS
AROUND 0.1 INCHES FOR THE NBM 25TH PERCENTILE AND AROUND 1.5 INCHES
FOR THE NBM 75TH PERCENTILE. THE MEAN IS AROUND 0.8 INCHES IN 24
HOURS. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON IF ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS
SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE PANHANDLE, JUST SW OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND.
AS THIS SAME LOW MOVES EASTWARD, IT WILL CONTINUE TO SEND WAVES OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA. NO IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED, BUT THERE
ARE LIKELY TO BE PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY HEAVIER RAIN AS SHOWERS
PERSIST.
ALONG WITH RAIN, NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN ACROSS THE AREA AS MORE NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WARM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO REACH INTO HIGH 60S TO THE LOW TO MID 70S. WARMEST
LOCATIONS LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN
LOWER.
AVIATION...THE SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
DIMINISHED FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
MOST AREAS ARE REPORTING VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE. WAVES OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE THEME OF THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH MOST OF THOSE SHOWERS LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLE ESPECIALLY INTO TUESDAY. NORTHERN PANHANDLE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY VFR (SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG OR
LOW CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING) INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL SEE PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO THE
PRECIPITATION. WINDS REMAIN RATHER LOW WITH MOST AREAS MAINLY
SEEING SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS UP TO 15 KT TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS):
MONDAY AFTERNOON EASTERLY WINDS ARE BUILDING FOR SOUTHERN WATERS
AND INTO DIXON ENTRANCE AS A LOW MOVES TOWARD HAIDA GWAII, WITH
SATELLITE WIND PASSES HIGHLIGHTING FRESH BREEZES. NORTH OF CAPE
EDGECUMBE, WINDS ARE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. CURRENT SEA
STATE IS DOMINATED BY MULTIPLE WAVE GROUPS: 20+ SECONDS SOUTH FROM
THE FAR SOUTH PACIFIC, A 15ISH SECOND SOUTHEASTERLY GROUP FROM A
TROPICAL SYSTEM SEVERAL DAYS AGO, AND SOME WIND WAVE CHOP IN THE
SOUTH. COMBINED THESE GROUPS ARE BRINGING SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS
OF 2 TO 4 FEET, WITH WIND WAVES DOMINATING IN DIXON.
AS A LOW MAKES LANDFALL IN THE SOUTH TUESDAY, NORTHWEST WINDS OF
MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES BUILD ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST, WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS OF MODERATE BREEZES BEING PULLED OUT OF CHATHAM
STRAIT. WIND WAVE OF 5 TO 7 FT BEGIN DOMINATING COASTAL WATERS
WEST OF POW AND DIXON, WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVES BUILDING TO 5 FT
FROM CAPE OMMANEY TO 3 TO 4 FT TOWARD THE FAIRWEATHER GROUNDS AND
CAPE ST. ELIAS.
SMALLER VESSELS OPERATING ON THE WESTERN COAST OF PRINCE OF WALES
(NEAR HECETA, ESQUIBAL, BAKER, AND NOYES ISLANDS) SHOULD BE AWARE
OF THESE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WAVES.
A MORE PROMINENT SYSTEM SETS UP THURSDAY, BRINGING STRONG BREEZES
TO MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS):
MONDAY HIGHEST WINDS OF STRONG BREEZES ARE CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN
LYNN CANAL, WITH MODERATE BREEZES IN CLARENCE. ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE
GENTLE BREEZES TO LIGHT. MOVING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON A LOW
CONTINUES TO APPROACH HAIDA GWAII, WITH THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
WATERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF FREDERICK SOUND. AS WINDS TO SLOWLY BACK
DOWN THIS EVENING, EXPECT THE GENERAL FLOW TO BECOME NORTHERLY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE INSIDE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
TUESDAY. MARINERS NAVIGATING SOUTHERN CHATHAM AND PERHAPS THE
EXPOSED OCEAN ENTRANCE OF SUMNER STRAIT WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW
HOURS OF MODERATE BREEZES OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST TUESDAY
AM. FOLKS TRANSITING THE INSIDE PASSAGE WILL ALSO FEEL NORTHERLY
WINDS OF MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES IN SOUTHERN CLARENCE AND
REVILLA EARLY TUESDAY.
AS THE LOW SHIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN ALEXANDER ARCHIPELAGO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOUTHERN CLARENCE STRAIT AND REVILLA CHANNEL
(REVILLAGIGEDO CHANNEL) WHERE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE
SOUTH, BUILDING TO MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...AP
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