618
FXAK67 PAJK 281800
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1000 AM AKDT TUE JUL 28 2026
UPDATE
18Z AVIATION UPDATE
ISSUES RESULTING FROM A METAR OUTAGE MONDAY CONTINUE TO PERSIST
ACROSS OUR AREA, WITH SITES SLOWLY COMING ONLINE. ENGINEERS
CONTINUE TO WORK TO CORRECT THE PROBLEM.
TUESDAY MORNING MOST AREAS IN THE NORTH WERE VFR, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A HANDFUL OF SHELTERED LOCATIONS, REPORTING IFR TO
LIFR FG, WHICH WAS IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING/BREAKING AS OF 0800-0900
AKDT. AS YOU MOVE SOUTH OF FREDERICK, MVFR CONDITIONS WERE MORE
PREVALENT, WITH -RA BR AND CIGS IN A MIXED BAG OF BKN TO OVC AOB
2000 FT. WINDS WERE RELATIVELY LIGHT, BELOW 10 KNOTS, FOR MOST OF
THE REGION OUTSIDE OF PAHN. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY, A
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE,
BRINGING MVFR RAIN SHOWERS WITH A NON-ZERO CHANCES FOR A FEW
STRIKES OF LIGHTING TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN REGION. PRIMARY
IMPACT FROM THESE SHOWERS IS YOUR VFR CIGS REDUCED TO MVFR, VSBY
DOWN TO BELOW 3-5SM FROM HEAVIER ROUNDS OF RAIN, ALONG WITH 15
MPH GUSTY WINDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THE
SOUTHERN REGION (CLARENCE STRAIT, POW, KETCHIKAN) WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
FOR FOLKS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR, VFR
PREVAILS UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING AS RAIN EXPANDS ACROSS THE
NORTH, BRINGING MVFR BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 339 AM AKDT TUE JUL 28 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- TROUGHING OUT IN THE GULF WILL SEND MULTIPLE WAVES OF RAIN FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH SE AK THIS WEEK.
- A LOW AND FRONT APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE IS BRINGING
STEADIER RAIN INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TUESDAY, THEN
SPREADING FURTHER NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- LIGHTER WINDS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL, WITH OCCASIONALLY BREEZY
WINDS FOR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND NEAR SKAGWAY.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...CLEARING ACROSS
NORTHERN SE AK HAS ALLOWED FOR PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
THIS MORNING. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR YAKUTAT UNTIL
7AM. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF TROUGHING OVER THE
GULF WILL BRING ACTIVE WEATHER INTO SE AK. THE FIRST IN A SERIES
OF SURFACE LOWS IS APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING. THIS LOW AND ATTENDANT FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH AND WEST
THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. STEADIER RAIN IS PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO CENTRAL PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON. POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION, ALONG WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY DUE TO COLDER TEMPS ALOFT, COULD BRING POCKETS OF
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AND UP TO NEAR SITKA AND ANGOON THROUGHT THIS EVENING.
EVEN WITHOUT THUNDER THOUGH, THE PRIMARY MESSAGE IS THESE HEAVIER
SHOWERS COULD PROVE HAZARDOUS TO THOSE ON THE WATER DUE TO QUICK
DROPS IN VISIBILITY AS WELL AS GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS IN THE
VICINITY. RAIN THREAT WILL EXPAND INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
TONIGHT AS THE LOW AND FRONT CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTH AND WEST OFF
THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST, EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED INTO A LARGER
SURFACE LOW PUSHING INTO THE GULF ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWER POTENTIAL
WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AS THE NEXT LOW APPROACHES. DRIER EASTERLY FLOW AND
RIDGING WILL BRING CLEARING WITH SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS THE NORTH
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WHILE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S, CLEARING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH IN THE MID 60S TO
POSSIBLY NEAR 70. GENERALLY LIGHTER WINDS WILL CONTINUE, WITH
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND NEAR
SKAGWAY.
LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A GENERALLY WETTER
PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE FOR SE AK THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THERE WILL BE A FEW DRIER BREAKS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTH, BUT
OTHERWISE RAIN CONTINUES. THURSDAY MORNING WILL START OFF A LITTLE
DRIER BEFORE A LOW, SENDS A FEW ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE
PANHANDLE. THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS WILL BE OVER THE SOUTH, BUT THERE
IS STILL HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE EXACT TOTALS. CURRENTLY THE SPREAD
FOR THURSDAY, OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE IN A 24 HOUR TIME SPAN, IS
AROUND 0.1 INCHES FOR THE NBM 25TH PERCENTILE AND AROUND 1.5 INCHES
FOR THE NBM 75TH PERCENTILE. THE MEAN IS AROUND 0.8 INCHES IN 24
HOURS. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON IF ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS
SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE PANHANDLE, JUST SW OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND.
AS THIS SAME LOW MOVES EASTWARD, IT WILL CONTINUE TO SEND WAVES OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA. NO IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED, BUT THERE
ARE LIKELY TO BE PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY HEAVIER RAIN AS SHOWERS
PERSIST.
ALONG WITH RAIN, NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN ACROSS THE AREA AS MORE NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WARM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO REACH INTO HIGH 60S TO THE LOW TO MID 70S. WARMEST
LOCATIONS LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN
LOWER.
AVIATION...FLYING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING REMAIN ON THE BETTER THIS
SIDE THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF LOW
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. CURRENTLY ANGOON AND
YAKUTAT REMAIN LIFR WHILE THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO SEE
VFR CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE THROUGH TODAY BEFORE MAKING IT AS FAR NORTH AS THE SITKA
AREA. THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DROP CEILINGS LATER TODAY TOWARDS
MVFR CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY HEADED INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE ALTHOUGH SOME REDUCED CEILING HEIGHTS MAY BE
POSSIBLE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME FOG REDEVELOPMENT INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES HAVE
DEVELOPED FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS CONTINUE TO
REPORT LIGHT WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY,
ESPECIALLY WITH THE NW FLOW DOWN THE COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW
NEAR DIXON ENTRANCE. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY BUT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MORE NORTHERLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. FARTHER OUT IN
THE GULF, LIGHT WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED WITH A MORE VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTION. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 3-6FT
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE INNER
CHANNELS THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHERN CHATHAM WHERE
WINDS ARE AROUND 15-20 KT. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY. WITH THE LOW
WORKING INLAND TODAY, WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW
AND COULD BECOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER, ESPECIALLY FOR THE CLARENCE
STRAIT AREA. INNER CHANNEL WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR
BELOW 4FT TODAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...AP
MARINE...SF
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page