505
FXAK67 PAJK 290611 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1011 PM AKDT TUE JUL 28 2026
UPDATE
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR 6Z TAF ISSUANCE.
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SPREAD LIGHTER RAIN FURTHER NORTH TONIGHT
WITH DIMINISHING HEAVIER SHOWERS LIKELY SOUTH OF FREDERICK
SOUND.
- SHOWERS DIMINISH WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THURSDAY BRINGING MORE RAIN AND INCREASED
MARINE WINDS.
- LIGHTER WINDS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL TUESDAY, WITH OCCASIONALLY
BREEZY WINDS FOR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE IN THE VICINITY OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND NEAR SKAGWAY.
SHORT TERM...WHILE THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE ENJOYED SOME CLEARING
EARLIER IN THE DAY, ONLY YAKUTAT ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST IS
LIKELY TO STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. A LOW THAT
APPROACHED THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE EARLY TODAY HAS TRANSITIONED TO
AN UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT IS BEGINNING TO STRETCH AND WEAKEN
OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE. AS OF THIS DISCUSSION THERE IS NO
LONGER AN ORGANIZED SURFACE REFLECTION FOR THIS SYSTEM, BUT MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS CONTINUING TO BRING SHOWERS THAT ARE GETTING
ENHANCED BY UPLIFT AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE TOPOGRAPHY OF THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. RAIN RATES AS HIGH AS 0.25 INCHES IN LESS THAN
AN HOUR HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN HEAVIER SHOWERS, WITH VISIBILITIES
DROPPING BRIEFLY BELOW 2 MILES AT TIMES. THESE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS THOUGH LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS
ICY STRAIT. LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE COULD LINGER OVER THE INNER
CHANNELS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BREAKS DOWN.
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE BUILDING NORTHWARD, FILLING
IN THE LOWER LEVELS AS SHOWERS QUICKLY FOLLOW SUIT. WITH
SATURATION OF THE LOW LEVELS AND NO SIGNIFICANT WIND EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT, SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN MORE SHELTERED PARTS OF
THE INNER CHANNELS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE CLOUD COVER MOVING IN
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LARGELY PUT A DAMPER ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY DESPITE SLIGHTLY WARMER
ONSHORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. WEDNESDAY STILL
LOOKS TO BE A SMALL BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THIS FIRST ONE
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND FALL APART AS IT MOVES FURTHER INLAND OVER
BC. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF HAIDA
GWAII ON THURSDAY, BRINGING MORE RAIN AS WELL AS INCREASING MARINE
WINDS TO THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. AS OF THIS DISCUSSION, THE
EXTENT OF THIS NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REACH
FREDERICK SOUND BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. SEE THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE ON THE CONTINUING UNSETTLED PATTERN
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF HAIDA GWAII FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE OVER THE PANHANDLE. SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING,
THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS AND HEAVIEST RATES LOOK TO REMAIN OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS ON FRIDAY SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES EASTWARD
ALLOWING FOR SOME EASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE INTO SE AK. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SIGNS OF CONVECTION, CONFIDENCE ON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
REMAINS LOW AT THE MOMENT. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP, PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVIER RAIN ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD, AN AREA OF HIGHER
PRESSURE TAKES ITS PLACE IN THE GULF. THIS COULD HELP TO CREATE
SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO
CREATE DRIER WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY TO REACH INTO HIGH 60S TO THE LOW TO MID 70S. WARMEST
LOCATIONS LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN
LOWER. AS THIS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS, IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR WINDS
OVER THE GULF TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE WEEKEND. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE OVER THE NE GULF INTO ICY STRAIT AND LYNN CANAL.
OTHERWISE, OVERALL WINDS REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, AT OR BELOW 15
KTS, FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION...AREA WITH THE LOWEST CONDITIONS THIS EVENING CONTINUES
TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FROM FREDERICK SOUND
SOUTHWARD. CONTINUED RAIN SHOWERS ARE PRODUCING CEILINGS DOWN TO
1200 FT AND OCCASIONAL VIS DOWN TO 2 MILES, AND AS WE GO THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT ISOLATED AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. NORTHERN PANHANDLE
IS MAINLY VFR AT THE MOMENT, BUT SOME OF THE RAIN FROM THE SOUTH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
(MAINLY LOWER CEILINGS DOWN TO 1500 TO 2500 FT) LIKELY. YAKUTAT IS
THE EXCEPTION AS THEIR LOWER CONDITIONS (DOWN TO IFR OR LOWER)
WILL MAINLY BE FROM GROUND FOG REDEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOST
AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE IMPROVING AVIATION WEATHER INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SHOWERS DIMINISH. WINDS
ARE LIGHT FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH SOME GUSTY WINDS STILL LINGER IN
SKAGWAY AND N LYNN THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
LIGHTEN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MAY REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS):
TUESDAY MORNING A LOW WAS MOVING INTO PRINCE OF WALES (POW), WITH
DIXON ENTRANCE AND COASTAL LOCATIONS WEST OF POW BEARING THE
BRUNT OF MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES. MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE
FAIRWEATHER GROUNDS, NW WINDS WERE ALSO PREVALENT, WITH MODERATE
BREEZES AS WELL. SEA STATE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST CONTINUES TO
BE DOMINATED BY GROUND SWELL, 19S AT 1-3 FT FROM THE SOUTH, WITH
BUILDING 4 TO 6 FT NW WIND WAVES AS YOU MOVE FROM THE FAIRWEATHER
GROUNDS SOUTH TO DIXON; HIGHEST WAVES WEST OF POW AND DIXON.
INTO TUESDAY EVENING WINDS NW WINDS OF MODERATE BREEZES EXPAND
SLIGHTLY WEST TOWARD CAPE ST. ELIAS. FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
COAST, WIND BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE RESPONSIBLE LOW’S PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS. ANTICIPATE A BRIEF RESPITE INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING; HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED. A MORE PROMINENT LOW
WILL SET UP RESIDENCE IN THE SE GULF, INCREASING ESE WINDS ACROSS
SOUTHERN WATERS TO FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE. PRIMARY CONCERN FOR
MARINERS TRANSITING DIXON ENTRANCE, CORDOVA BAY, AND THE WEST
COAST OF POW FOR ELEVATED ESE WINDS.
FOR MOST OF THE COAST, INSPIRING FETCH WINDOWS REMAIN CLOSED; SEA
STATE CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY LOW AMPLITUDE GROUND SWELL
FROM FAR AWAY EQUATORIAL AND SOUTH PAC STORMS DRIVING SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 3 FT. THURSDAY, THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE OMMANEY WHERE THE ESE WINDS MENTIONED
ABOVE WILL GENERATE EASTERLY WIND WAVES OF 6 TO 8 FT, DOMINATING
UNDERLYING SWELL. IN THE OFFSHORE ZONES WEST OF POW EXPECT SEAS OF
9 TO 11 FT.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS):
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE IN TAIYA INLET AND
CLARENCE STRAIT, WITH OTHER AREAS SEEING LESS THAN 15 KNOTS OF
WIND. SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BUILD OVERNIGHT IN CLARENCE
STRAIT, PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY, AS AN ADDITIONAL LOW SETS UP
SOUTHWEST OF HAIDA GWAII. EXPECT SOME GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15
TO PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS MOVE NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL INNER
CHANNELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY, WINDS
BEGIN TO TURN EASTERLY IN DIXON ENTRANCE, WITH STRONG BREEZES TO
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS FORECASTED. MARINERS TRANSITING THE INSIDE
PASSAGE SHOULD BE AWARE OF ELEVATED NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
IMPACTING SOUTHERN CLARENCE STRAIT AND REVILLA CHANNEL
(REVILLAGIGEDO CHANNEL). FURTHERMORE, BY EARLY THURSDAY, THESE
WINDS WILL GENERATE SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT, MAINLY IMPACTING SOUTHERN
CORDOVA BAY AND SOUTH OF GRAVINA ISLAND.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ641-661-662.
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...AP
MARINE...AP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page