903
FXAK67 PAJK 291257
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
457 AM AKDT WED JUL 29 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWERS CONTINUE TODAY FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
BEFORE DIMINISHING BY EVENING.
- A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND INCREASED MARINE
WINDS TO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SLOWLY WEAKENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE
EARLY THIS MORNING. WHILE SOME OF THE HEAVIER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
WE SAW IN THE EVENING HAVE DIMINISHED, THE MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH JUST ENOUGH LIFT HAS PRODUCED ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE MORNING, ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT. OTHERWISE, SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
INNER CHANNELS AND ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST, INCLUDING THE
YAKUTAT AREA, BUT THUS FAR HAS NOT BEEN AS WIDESPREAD AS LAST
NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING AS UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT FURTHER WANES. AS CLOUD COVER ALSO DECREASES,
ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT, PATCHY GROUND AND RADIATIONAL FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OFF
THE COAST OF HAIDA GWAII BY LATE THURSDAY, BRINGING MORE RAIN AS
WELL AS INCREASING MARINE WINDS TO THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL THURSDAY
NIGHT AND BEYOND. AT THIS TIME, NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED, BUT A FEW INTERVALS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL ARE ANTICIPATED,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF FREDERICK SOUND. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN
THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY,
JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. BUT BY THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
ONCE AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF HAIDA GWAII FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE OVER THE PANHANDLE. SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING,
THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS AND HEAVIEST RATES LOOK TO REMAIN OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS ON FRIDAY SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES EASTWARD
ALLOWING FOR SOME EASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE INTO SE AK. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SIGNS OF CONVECTION, CONFIDENCE ON THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT REMAINS LOW AT THE MOMENT. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO
DEVELOP, PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVIER RAIN ARE LIKELY TO
OCCUR. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
WEEKEND.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD, AN AREA OF HIGHER
PRESSURE TAKES ITS PLACE IN THE GULF. THIS COULD HELP TO CREATE
SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALSO HELP
TO CREATE DRIER WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REACH INTO HIGH 60S TO THE LOW TO MID
70S. WARMEST LOCATIONS LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CLOUD
COVER WILL REMAIN LOWER. AS THIS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS, IT WILL
ALSO ALLOW FOR WINDS OVER THE GULF TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE
WEEKEND. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE NE GULF INTO ICY STRAIT
AND LYNN CANAL. OTHERWISE, OVERALL WINDS REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE, AT OR BELOW 15 KTS, FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT, BRINGING
PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS OF 1500 TO 3000 FT AND LOWERED VIS
DOWN TO 2 TO 4 SM. LOW, THIN CLOUDS DOWN TO 500 FT ARE ALSO BEING
REPORTED FOR MANY LOCATIONS SEEING HEAVIER SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS
ARE MAINLY IMPACTING AREAS FROM FREDERICK SOUND SOUTHWARD, BUT
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ALL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AS THE
BAND CONTINUES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. YAKUTAT IS THE
EXCEPTION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
LEADING TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF THE AREA CREATING
PERIODIC LIFR CONDITIONS. A MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE CAN
ANTICIPATE AN IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
SHOWERS DIMINISH, WITH MANY NORTHERN LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY SEEING
CLEARING SKIES TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE ASSOCIATED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE IS EXPECTED TO BRING
A SWATH OF 20 TO 30 KT EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING OVERCAST CIGS
WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AND CONTINUING INTO
FRIDAY.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): RELATIVELY BENIGN WINDS
OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AN EASTERLY FRESH TO STRONG
BREEZE THROUGH DIXON ENTRANCE AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. PRIMARY CONCERN FOR MARINERS TRANSITING DIXON ENTRANCE,
CORDOVA BAY, AND THE WEST COAST OF POW FOR ELEVATED ESE WINDS.
FOR MOST OF THE COAST, INSPIRING FETCH WINDOWS REMAIN CLOSED; SEA
STATE CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY LOW AMPLITUDE GROUND SWELL FROM
FAR AWAY EQUATORIAL AND SOUTH PAC STORMS DRIVING SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 3 FT. THURSDAY, THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE OMMANEY WHERE THE ESE WINDS MENTIONED ABOVE
WILL GENERATE EASTERLY WIND WAVES OF 6 TO 8 FT, DOMINATING
UNDERLYING SWELL. IN THE OFFSHORE ZONES WEST OF POW EXPECT SEAS OF
9 TO 11 FT. KEPT WINDS RELATIVELY THE SAME FOR THE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT, BUT HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS REACHING SLIGHTLY MORE NORTH
ALONG THE COAST GAVE REASON TO SLIGHTLY EXPAND THE AREA OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS):
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BUILD IN CLARENCE STRAIT, PERSISTING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AT A FRESH BREEZE AS AN ADDITIONAL LOW SETS UP
SOUTHWEST OF HAIDA GWAII. EXPECT SOME GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15
TO 25 KNOTS TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY, WINDS BEGIN TO TURN
EASTERLY IN DIXON ENTRANCE, WITH STRONG BREEZES TO NEAR GALE FORCE
WINDS FORECASTED. MARINERS TRANSITING THE INSIDE PASSAGE SHOULD
BE AWARE OF ELEVATED NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS IMPACTING SOUTHERN
CLARENCE STRAIT AND REVILLAGIGEDO CHANNEL. FURTHERMORE, BY EARLY
THURSDAY, THESE WINDS WILL GENERATE SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT, MAINLY
IMPACTING SOUTHERN CORDOVA BAY AND SOUTH OF GRAVINA ISLAND. THE
REST OF THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS WILL STAY RELATIVELY
UNEVENTFUL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR A SEA
BREEZE TO TURN WINDS ONSHORE MIDDAY. LYNN CANAL MAY SEE NORTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT ONCE ANY LINGERING SEA
BREEZE INFLUENCE SUBSIDES.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ641-642-661>663.
SHORT TERM...MJB
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...ZTK/AP
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