961
FXAK67 PAJK 291801
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1001 AM AKDT WED JUL 29 2026
UPDATE
UPDATE TO THE AVIATION SECTION, ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER
UPDATE. THE ICY STRAIT AREA INCLUDING JUNEAU LOOKS TO BEGIN TO
CLEAR OUT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED, EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON FROM
EASTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS.
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWERS CONTINUE TODAY FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
BEFORE DIMINISHING BY EVENING.
- A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND INCREASED MARINE
WINDS TO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SLOWLY WEAKENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE
EARLY THIS MORNING. WHILE SOME OF THE HEAVIER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
WE SAW IN THE EVENING HAVE DIMINISHED, THE MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH JUST ENOUGH LIFT HAS PRODUCED ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE MORNING, ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT. OTHERWISE, SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
INNER CHANNELS AND ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST, INCLUDING THE
YAKUTAT AREA, BUT THUS FAR HAS NOT BEEN AS WIDESPREAD AS LAST
NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING AS UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT FURTHER WANES. AS CLOUD COVER ALSO DECREASES,
ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT, PATCHY GROUND AND RADIATIONAL FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OFF
THE COAST OF HAIDA GWAII BY LATE THURSDAY, BRINGING MORE RAIN AS
WELL AS INCREASING MARINE WINDS TO THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL THURSDAY
NIGHT AND BEYOND. AT THIS TIME, NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED, BUT A FEW INTERVALS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL ARE ANTICIPATED,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF FREDERICK SOUND. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN
THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF HAIDA GWAII FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE OVER THE PANHANDLE. SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING,
THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS AND HEAVIEST RATES LOOK TO REMAIN OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS ON FRIDAY SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES EASTWARD
ALLOWING FOR SOME EASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE INTO SE AK. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SIGNS OF CONVECTION, CONFIDENCE ON THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT REMAINS LOW AT THE MOMENT. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO
DEVELOP, PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVIER RAIN ARE LIKELY TO
OCCUR. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
WEEKEND.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD, AN AREA OF HIGHER
PRESSURE TAKES ITS PLACE IN THE GULF. THIS COULD HELP TO CREATE
SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALSO HELP
TO CREATE DRIER WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REACH INTO HIGH 60S TO THE LOW TO MID
70S. WARMEST LOCATIONS LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CLOUD
COVER WILL REMAIN LOWER. AS THIS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS, IT WILL
ALSO ALLOW FOR WINDS OVER THE GULF TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE
WEEKEND. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE NE GULF INTO ICY STRAIT
AND LYNN CANAL. OTHERWISE, OVERALL WINDS REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE, AT OR BELOW 15 KTS, FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
MAIN PAIN POINTS FOR THE AVIATION FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE PANHANDLE ARE WEAK WINDS, LOW CLOUDS AOB 2000 FT, AND
MISTY/FOGGY CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITIES ONE MILE OR LESS. WHILE
THESE LOW VISIBILITY CONDITIONS MAY NOT BE OCCURRING OVER TAF
SITES, FAA WEBCAMS ARE CERTAINLY SHOWING NEARBY LOW VISIBILITY.
HAINES IN PARTICULAR, HAS LOW VISIBILITY JUST OFFSHORE THAT WILL
BE LIFTING DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,
A WEAK WAVE IS MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE ICY STRAIT AREA DURING
THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY BRING INTERMITTENT
MVFR CLOUDS TO AROUND 2500 FT. BY LATE AFTERNOON, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS.
FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, CONTINUOUS SOUTHERLY, MOIST FLOW WILL
KEEP MVFR CIGS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, PARTICULARLY
FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INCLUDING KETCHIKAN. IT DOES LOOK
LIKE CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR IN THE EARLY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. FURTHERMORE, EXPECTING THE SHOWERS TO SLIGHTLY DECREASE IN
FREQUENCY DURING THE DAY, BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): RELATIVELY BENIGN WINDS
OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AN EASTERLY FRESH TO STRONG
BREEZE THROUGH DIXON ENTRANCE AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. PRIMARY CONCERN FOR MARINERS TRANSITING DIXON ENTRANCE,
CORDOVA BAY, AND THE WEST COAST OF POW FOR ELEVATED ESE WINDS.
FOR MOST OF THE COAST, INSPIRING FETCH WINDOWS REMAIN CLOSED; SEA
STATE CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY LOW AMPLITUDE GROUND SWELL FROM
FAR AWAY EQUATORIAL AND SOUTH PAC STORMS DRIVING SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 3 FT. THURSDAY, THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE OMMANEY WHERE THE ESE WINDS MENTIONED ABOVE
WILL GENERATE EASTERLY WIND WAVES OF 6 TO 8 FT, DOMINATING
UNDERLYING SWELL. IN THE OFFSHORE ZONES WEST OF POW EXPECT SEAS OF
9 TO 11 FT. KEPT WINDS RELATIVELY THE SAME FOR THE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT, BUT HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS REACHING SLIGHTLY MORE NORTH
ALONG THE COAST GAVE REASON TO SLIGHTLY EXPAND THE AREA OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS):
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BUILD IN CLARENCE STRAIT, PERSISTING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AT A FRESH BREEZE AS AN ADDITIONAL LOW SETS UP
SOUTHWEST OF HAIDA GWAII. EXPECT SOME GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15
TO 25 KNOTS TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY, WINDS BEGIN TO TURN
EASTERLY IN DIXON ENTRANCE, WITH STRONG BREEZES TO NEAR GALE FORCE
WINDS FORECASTED. MARINERS TRANSITING THE INSIDE PASSAGE SHOULD
BE AWARE OF ELEVATED NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS IMPACTING SOUTHERN
CLARENCE STRAIT AND REVILLAGIGEDO CHANNEL. FURTHERMORE, BY EARLY
THURSDAY, THESE WINDS WILL GENERATE SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT, MAINLY
IMPACTING SOUTHERN CORDOVA BAY AND SOUTH OF GRAVINA ISLAND. THE
REST OF THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS WILL STAY RELATIVELY
UNEVENTFUL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR A SEA
BREEZE TO TURN WINDS ONSHORE MIDDAY. LYNN CANAL MAY SEE NORTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT ONCE ANY LINGERING SEA
BREEZE INFLUENCE SUBSIDES.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ641-642-661>663.
SHORT TERM...MJB
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...NTC
MARINE...ZTK
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