262
FXAK67 PAJK 301309
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
509 AM AKDT THU JUL 30 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL BRING MORE
RAIN TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO FRIDAY, WITH
THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS SOUTH OF SUMNER STRAIT.
- EXPECT INCREASED MARINE WINDS, MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF
AND CLARENCE STRAIT, TODAY INTO FRIDAY.
- A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GULF LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO WEAKEN AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS A BROAD WEAK TROUGH WEAKENS
OVER THE AREA, PRECIPITATION HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE, ALTHOUGH
A FEW SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
INTO THE ADJACENT MARINE WATERS. OTHERWISE, BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER
COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN THE
FORMATION OF SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL AND GROUND FOG. SO FAR, THIS
HAS BEEN MOST PERSISTENT AROUND GUSTAVUS, ALTHOUGH EVEN THERE
CONDITIONS HAVE RECENTLY IMPROVED. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST AND NEAR THE MORE SHELTERED INNER WATERS.
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, A WEAK RIDGE WILL PUSH TOWARD THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST REGION. THIS WILL HELP FUNNEL DRIER AIR INTO THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE. AND, WITH JUST SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND ACCORDINGLY WITH THE TYPICALLY WARMER
LOCALES REACHING THE UPPER 70S BY AFTERNOON. THESE WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH, A BIT MORE CLOUDINESS
MAY RESULT IN COOLER CONDITIONS THAN WOULD HAVE OTHERWISE BEEN
REALIZED.
FARTHER SOUTH, CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS TRANQUIL AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN NEAR HAIDA GWAII. AS THIS SYSTEM INCHES
NORTHEAST, SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY LATE IN THE DAY,
PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PORT ALEXANDER TO WRANGELL,
ALONG WITH SOME INCREASE IN WINDS IN THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
LOCALES. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE TOWARD BRITISH COLUMBIA
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER PERIOD
OF HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ANY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS, ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL TOTALS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT COULD
APPROACH 1.25" IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. ALSO OF NOTE IS THAT
AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD CANADA, THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
TURN EASTERLY AND COULD HELP SOME CONVECTION NEAR AND EAST OF THE
BOUNDARY RANGES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. WHILE THIS POSSIBILITY IS
STILL HINTED AT IN SOME MODEL GUIDANCE, IT WAS STILL DEEMED TOO
LOW TO ADD TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN BE
FOUND IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD A LOW WILL BE SITUATED OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF ALASKA. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL EXTEND OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE AND WILL
BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTAL RANGE AS WELL AS FOR
COMMUNITIES PETERSBURG SOUTH. WHILE THE LOW WILL IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MOSTLY STATIONARY THE STRENGTH OF WHICH WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL RESULT DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE EASTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE,
AND WHILE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IS LOWER COMPARED TO AREAS TO
THE SOUTH, IT IS NON ZERO. THAT SAID, PRECIPITATION FOR THE
NORTHERN AREAS IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE. DUE TO
THE LOW WEAKENING THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE MENTIONED
IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION SEEM TO BECOMING LESS LIKELY.
THAT SAID, THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY AS IT WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE LOW.
LOOKING TOWARDS THE START OF THE NEXT WEEK, MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THE EXACT
AMPLITUDE AND PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS IS STILL A LITTLE BIT
UNCERTAIN, HOWEVER IT WILL DICTATE WHERE THE GENERALIZED ONSHORE
FLOW AND WETTER CONDITIONS WILL BE PLACED. THE CURRENT LINE OF
THINKING IS THAT THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE ICY BAY WESTWARD ON
MONDAY AND WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THROUGH MID WEEK.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
THE PANHANDLE IS SPLIT BETWEEN
TWO REGIMES THURSDAY, WITH AREAS SOUTH OF FREDERICK SOUND
EXPECTED TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF A LINGERING FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE HAS BEEN SEEING CLEARING SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE MORNING. A FEW AREAS OF PATCHY FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT,
BUT FOR THE MOST PART HAVE REMAINED THIN AND AWAY FROM THE RUNWAY.
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE RELATIVELY CLEAR THROUGH THE
DAY, WITH ANY LINGERING CLOUDS REMAINING HIGH AND BROKEN. 10 TO
15 KT SEA BREEZES WILL INCREASE THROUGH MIDDAY. A LAYER OF HIGH
CLOUDS IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
THIS MORNING, PRECEDING A LOWER LAYER AROUND 2500 TO 5000 FT WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE WITH THIS
FRONT, THOUGH THE SOUTHERNMOST AREAS OF THE PANHANDLE MAY DIP DOWN
TO MVFR PERIODICALLY WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FOR THESE SOUTHERNMOST AREAS AS
WELL, WITH LLWS, MAINLY SPEED SHEAR, POSSIBLE FOR PAKW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
OUTER WATERS: THE GULF WATERS ARE DOMINATED BY TWO REGIMES TODAY,
WITH LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES IN THE NORTHERN GULF AND A FRONT
BRINGING STRONG BREEZES TO NEAR GALE FORCE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
THROUGH DIXON ENTRANCE AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF. 8 TO 12 FT
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OFF THE WESTERN
COAST OF PRINCE OF WALES AND SOUTHERN BARANOF ISLANDS THROUGH
THURSDAY. AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES OVERNIGHT, WINDS AND WAVES WILL
SUBSIDE AND REMAIN BENIGN THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE RIDGING SETS UP
OVER THE GULF SATURDAY.
INSIDE WATERS: PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT THROUGH SHELTERED
INLETS AND CHANNELS, AND WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AS A FRONT MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT WILL BRING MODERATE TO
FRESH SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES THROUGH CLARENCE AND SUMNER STRAIT,
LINGERING IN CLARENCE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE
CHANNELS WILL STAY RELATIVELY BENIGN THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH 10
TO 15 KT SEA BREEZES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SHIFT WINDS ONSHORE
THROUGH SOME OF THE NORTHERN CHANNELS MIDDAY. WINDS THAT TURN
ONSHORE WILL TURN BACK OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. AFTER THE FRONT
DISSIPATES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, ANY LINGERING WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ641-642-661>663.
SHORT TERM...MJB
LONG TERM...BUTWIN
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...ZTK
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