925
FXAK67 PAJK 062251
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
251 PM AKDT THU AUG 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
-NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK,
HOWEVER MARINE LAYER LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN
GULF AND INNER CHANNELS.
-A STRONGER TROUGH ADVANCES INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FRIDAY,
AND TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN.
-SUICIDE BASIN GLACIER DAMMED LAKE CONTINUES TO FILL AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
/THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/ MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FACTOR IN THE SHORT RANGE TODAY AS ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES. MOST AREAS OF THE PANHANDLE ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
COMPLETELY OVERCAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.
THERE ARE A FEW CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. FIRST THE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN
THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR THE MOST PART
(EXCEPTION MIGHT BE THE HYDER AREA WHICH COULD WARM TO AROUND 70
IN THE AFTERNOONS DUE TO A LACK OF CLOUD COVER IN THAT AREA).
AREAS LIKE CROSS SOUND AND YAKUTAT COULD CONTINUE TO SEE LOW
CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE FOG LATE AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNINGS
AS WELL. SECOND IS THAT THERE IS AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE
MOVING FROM S TO N THROUGH THE PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY. THIS COULD
BRING SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE PANHANDLE STARTING FRIDAY
MORNING IN THE SOUTH AND SPREADING NORTH INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE IS NOT VERY STRONG AND ANY RAINFALL THAT AN AREA COULD SEE
IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT. 24 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY NOT BE MORE THEN 0.2 INCHES AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION.
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE RATHER LIGHT PANHANDLE WIDE. AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES ARE THE MAIN SOURCE OF ANY HIGHER WINDS, BUT EVEN THERE
THEY WILL LIKELY NOT BE MORE THEN 15 KT WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS
LIKELY IN TAIYA INLET AND SKAGWAY.
LONG TERM
NOT EXPECTING TO SEE ANY MAJOR WEATHER EVENTS THIS
COMING WEEK. HOWEVER, AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF BREAKS DOWN,
SEVERAL MINOR DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, LEADING TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERY PRECIPITATION. BY SUNDAY, THE LINGERING
REMNANTS OF A FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN SHOWERS PRIMARILY IN THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE. 24 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 0.1”, WITH THE HIGHEST RATES OCCURRING
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE ISOLATED
TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SOMETHING OF NOTE, SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING FAVORABLE LOWER LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, WHICH MAY HELP
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. HOWEVER, LIMITED SHEAR AND A LACK OF INSTABILITY IN THE MID
TO UPPER LEVELS SHOULD INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION. MOST IF NOT ALL
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN CANADA RATHER THAN CROSSING THE
COAST RANGE INTO OUR AOR.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER THE EASTERN GULF, FOLLOWED BY THE FORMATION OF A JET STREAK
SOUTH OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY. THIS, COMBINED WITH A LOW-PRESSURE
CENTER TRACKING EAST FROM THE BERING SEA ACROSS THE GULF, MAY
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT ENERGY FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGHER QPF
AMOUNTS AS A FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY. WHILE GUIDANCE IS
BEGINNING TO AGREE ON THE TRACK OF THE GULF LOW, THERE IS STILL
LARGE SPREAD IN RAINFALL TOTALS, WHICH WILL LIKELY BE MORE
INFLUENCED BY LOCAL EFFECTS THAN ANYTHING ELSE.
AVIATION
STILL SEEING MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS AROUND
3500 TO 4500 FT IN THE INNER WATERS FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLE.
AREAS ALONG ICY STRAIT AND THE NE GULF COAST HAVE SUCCESSFULLY
RISEN TO AOA 1500 FT, WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING. STILL ANTICIPATING CONDITIONS FOR THE NE GULF COAST
AND ICY STRAIT OVER TO GUSTAVUS TO RETURN TO AT LEAST IFR
CONDITIONS, WITH CIGS AOB 900 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. COULD SEE
SOME NEARBY FOG AS WELL, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS WILL
ADVECT OVER TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. FOR THE INCOMING WEAK SYSTEM
ON FRIDAY, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING TO AT LEAST SEE WIDESPREAD
MVFR CIGS SPREADING SOUTH TO AROUND THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO VIS
FROM ANY ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS.
SKAGWAY CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE DIURNAL GUSTINESS TREND FOR
ANOTHER DAY, WITH WIND GUSTS NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 30 KNOTS
FROM THE SOUTH. STILL NO LLWS CONCERNS FOR THE INCOMING SYSTEM
TOMORROW
MARINE
OUTSIDE WATERS: WEAKENING BUT CONSTANT HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
EASTERN GULF IS THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
DIMINISHING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH MAY SHIFT WINDS NORTHWESTERLY
TO WESTERLY IN THE WATERS TO THE WEST OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND ON
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS ARE RELATIVELY STAGNANT WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS 4 FT OR LESS. MAY SEE SOME VISIBILITY ISSUES FROM LOW
CLOUDS, MIST, AND FOG OFF THE COAST OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND AND
NEAR CROSS SOUND.
INSIDE WATERS: SIMILAR IDEAS FOR THE INSIDE WATERS, WITH FORCING
GENERALLY BEING DRIVEN BY LARGE SCALE THERMAL GRADIENTS BETWEEN SE
AK AND BRITISH COLUMBIA/YUKON. WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP IN
TAIYA INLET, WITH HIGHER SPEEDS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD NEAR
ELDRED ROCK, ALONG WITH AREAS NEAR ICY STRAIT FOR WESTERLIES. NOT
EXPECTING SPEEDS TO EXCEED 15 KNOTS AT THIS TIME, AS HIGHER WIND
SPEEDS WOULD REQUIRE CLOUDS TO CLEAR SIGNIFICANTLY MORE THAN THEY
ARE CURRENTLY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...BAS
AVIATION...NC
MARINE...NC
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