336
FXAK67 PAJK 071334
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
534 AM AKDT FRI AUG 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
-NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE WEEK,
HOWEVER MARINE LAYER LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN
GULF AND INNER CHANNELS.
-A FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FRIDAY AND INTO THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE BY FRIDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A ROUND
OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA.
-SUICIDE BASIN GLACIER DAMMED LAKE CONTINUES TO FILL AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
/THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
NO MAJOR HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL PUSH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT, NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SUBSTANTIAL
OUTSIDE CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES AND A SLIGHT UPTICK IN RAIN
CHANCES. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT, AMOUNTS LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN
ON THE COOLER SIDE, THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PANHANDLE, UP TO THE UPPER 70S FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
LOW-END RAIN CHANCES, OVERCAST SKIES, AND OVERALL UNSETTLED
PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
SLOWS AND STALLS OVER THE PANHANDLE. AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS OR INTENSITY, WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHTER.
SPEAKING OF WINDS, THEY CONTINUE TO BE RATHER LIGHT PANHANDLE
WIDE, AROUND 10 KTS/ 15MPH OR LESS. MAIN DRIVING FORCE FOR WINDS
CONTINUES TO BE THE DAILY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES, WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED IN TAIYA INLET AND
SKAGWAY UP TO 15 KNOTS. POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO
20KTS.
LONG TERM
NOT EXPECTING TO SEE ANY MAJOR WEATHER EVENTS THIS COMING WEEK.
HOWEVER, AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF BREAKS DOWN, SEVERAL MINOR
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, LEADING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERY PRECIPITATION. BY SUNDAY, THE LINGERING
REMNANTS OF A FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN SHOWERS PRIMARILY IN THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE. 24 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 0.1”, WITH THE HIGHEST RATES OCCURRING
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE ISOLATED
TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SOMETHING OF NOTE, SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING FAVORABLE LOWER
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, WHICH MAY HELP
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. HOWEVER, LIMITED SHEAR AND A LACK OF INSTABILITY IN THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS SHOULD INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION. MOST IF NOT
ALL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN CANADA RATHER THAN CROSSING
THE COAST RANGE INTO OUR AOR.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF, FOLLOWED BY THE FORMATION OF A JET
STREAK SOUTH OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY. THIS, COMBINED WITH A LOW-
PRESSURE CENTER TRACKING EAST FROM THE BERING SEA ACROSS THE GULF,
MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT ENERGY FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND
HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS AS A FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY. WHILE
GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO AGREE ON THE TRACK OF THE GULF LOW, THERE
IS STILL LARGE SPREAD IN RAINFALL TOTALS, WHICH WILL LIKELY BE
MORE INFLUENCED BY LOCAL EFFECTS THAN ANYTHING ELSE.
AVIATION
/THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
A PROMINENT MARINE LAYER BLANKETS THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AOA
ABOUT 3,000FT. THE EXPECTATION THROUGH THE MORNING IS THAT THIS
LAYER WILL LIFT TO AOA 4,000FT AND REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PAYA, WHICH COULD SEE WINDS SUSTAINED UP TO 15KT WITH
GUSTY CONDITIONS. WITH THE MARINE LAYER PERSISTING, THERE IS A
LOT OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE, WHICH COULD BRING PERIODS LIGHT
DRIZZLE/RAIN AND/OR MIST AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. THIS IS AGAIN
LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND AGAIN IN
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MARINE
OUTSIDE: WEAKENING BUT CONSTANT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY FORCING OF WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. 15 KT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH MAY
SHIFT WINDS NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY IN THE WATERS TO THE WEST
OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS ARE
RELATIVELY STAGNANT WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 4 FT OR LESS. VIRILITY IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO BE REDUCED, ESPECIALLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE
TO FOG DEVELOPMENT, LOW CLOUDS, AND MISTY OR DRIZZLY CONDITIONS
PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND AND NEAR CROSS SOUND.
INSIDE: WE SEE A RELATIVE DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND SPEEDS TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH LYNN CANAL BEING THE LOCATION OF MOST
CONCERN. A THERMAL GRADIENT BETWEEN SOUTHEAST AK AND THE INTERIOR
OF CANADA IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASED WINDS TO TAIYA INLET, UP
TO ABOUT 18KTS SE WHICH WILL REACH INTO NORTHERN LYNN CANAL. THIS
TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 15KTS. AS FOR THE REST OF THE INNER
CHANNELS, WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 10KTS AND REMAIN MAINLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...NM
LONG TERM...BAS
AVIATION...AGP
MARINE...AGP
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