986
FXAK67 PAJK 072304
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
304 PM AKDT FRI AUG 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
-NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND
HOWEVER MARINE LAYER LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN
GULF AND INNER CHANNELS.
-A WEAK FRONT WILL BE MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING POSSIBLE PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN.
-SUICIDE BASIN GLACIER DAMMED LAKE CONTINUES TO FILL AT THIS
TIME. IT IS EXPECTED TO BE FULL SOMETIME LATE THIS WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE PANHANDLE AS
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH/FRONT MOVES FROM S TO N THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE TONIGHT. MARINE LAYER CLOUDS ARE ALSO
COMPLICATING THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WELL. AS OF 1
PM THE UPPER TROUGH/FRONT IS CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS BARANOF
AND KUPREANOF ISLANDS AND SLOWLY MOVING NORTH. LITTLE
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OBSERVED FROM THIS FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON
THOUGH IT IS INCREASING UPPER TO MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
THE FRONT/UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH TONIGHT,
SPREADING SOME CHANCES OF RAIN AND CLOUD AS IT GOES. ANY PRECIP
THAT IS OBSERVED IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT WITH LESS THEN A
TENTH OF AN INCH EXPECTED IN ANY 24 HOUR PERIOD. OTHERWISE,
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AT LOWER LEVELS WILL KEEP MARINE LAYER
CLOUDS IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND THOUGHT THEIR MAY BE SOME
BREAKS THAT DEVELOP IN THE CLOUD COVER FROM TIME TO TIME. AS A
RESULT, AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AND SEA BREEZES WILL NOT BE
MUCH DIFFERENT FROM WHAT WE HAVE ALREADY BEEN SEEING OVER THE LAST
FEW DAYS. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF SOME WARMING FOR SUNDAY AS 850
MB TEMPS RISE FROM AROUND 4 OR 5C TO AROUND 7 TO 8C PARTICULARLY
OVER THE NORTH. SO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAY REACH
INTO THE UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM
ENSEMBLE MODELS HAVE REACHED GREATER CONSENSUS ON THE
TRACK OF THE MAIN SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BRINGING
LIGHT, AND GENERALLY UNIMPACTFUL PRECIPITATION. A MID-LEVEL LOW
WILL SUPPLY VORTICITY TO THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AMPLIFYING
ANTICIPATED RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ON WEDNESDAY. A SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ON
WEDNESDAY, WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE LOW TRACKS SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD THE AOR. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE, KEEPING THE MAIN LOW TO THE WEST AS
IT TRACKS OVER THE ALEUTIANS, DIGS SOUTH, AND MOVES INTO THE KENAI
PENINSULA. WHILE THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR THE MAIN FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION TO PUSH THROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH A MEAN 24 HOUR
ACCUMULATION OF 0.25” (SUPPORTED BY THE 75TH PERCENTILE NBM AND
GEFS/EC ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT), THERE REMAINS A RISK THAT IF THE LOW
SHIFTS FURTHER EAST, YAKUTAT AND SURROUNDING AREAS COULD
EXPERIENCE HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. FOR NOW, THE EXPECTED TRACK WILL KEEP THE NORTHEAST GULF
COAST UNDER LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, BUT NOTHING UNSEASONABLE. AFTER
THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH, THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE ARE EXPECTED TO SEE CLEARER SKIES, AND THEREFORE WARMER
TEMPERATURES. CURRENT THINKING PUTS INLAND AND SOUTHERN AREAS WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED MORE THAN EXPECTED, WITH MANY AREAS AS
HIGH MVFR TO MOSTLY VFR. THE WEAK FRONT ALOFT IS CURRENTLY IN THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE, SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY NORTHWARD. STILL
EXPECTING THE MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
BRING IN MOISTURE INTO CANADA, WHICH IN TURN STREAMS OVER THE ICY
STRAIT CORRIDOR AND HAINES AND SKAGWAY. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
ALREADY PRESENT, COULD SEE VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 5 SM WITH HIGH
IFR TO LOW MVFR CLOUD DECKS THIS EVENING. FURTHERMORE, LOOKING TO
SEE AN INTRUSION OF MARINE DECK OVERNIGHT FOR THE GULF WATERS AND
OUTER COAST, DROPPING CIGS TO AOB 1500 FT.
MARINE
OUTSIDE: HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN REMAINS CONSTANT THROUGH THE
NEXT 3 DAYS, WITH THE MAIN THREAT FOR THE OUTSIDE WATERS BEING LOW
CLOUDS AND POOR VISIBILITY. THESE THREATS LOOK TO BE LOCALIZED
AROUND THE CROSS SOUND ENTRANCE AND SOUTH OF CAPE DECISION.
VISIBILITIES COULD DROP TO BELOW ONE STATUTE MILE.
INSIDE: SIMILAR STORY FOR THE INSIDE WATERS, WITH THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE BEING TAIYA INLET. AS SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED NORTH
OF THE AOR, EXPECTING A MILD THERMAL GRADIENT TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA, ALTHOUGH THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO EXCEED 15
KNOTS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT WINDS TO BE LIGHTER THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS LARGELY AFFECTED BY LOCAL EFFECTS
RATHER THAN LARGE SCALE MOVEMENTS IN THE ATMOSPHERE.
HYDROLOGY
SUICIDE BASIN GLACIER DAMMED LAKE CONTINUES TO FILL.
THE POOL ELEVATION AS OF 1 PM WAS AT 1343 FT WITH A RATE OF RISE
OF AROUND 2 FT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE OVERFLOW CHANNEL IS AT
AN ELEVATION OF AROUND 1350 FT SO THE LAKE HAS ANOTHER 7 FT TO
RISE BEFORE IT STARTS TO OVERFLOW ACROSS THE SIDE OF THE GLACIER.
WITH THE RATE OF RISE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS AND WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CONSISTENT WITH CLOUD COVER
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE LAKE IS EXPECTED TO LIKELY
BECOME FULL AROUND AUGUST 10TH OR 11TH. ONCE THAT POINT IS
REACHED, IN THE PAST IT HAS TAKEN UP TO 6 DAYS BEFORE THE LAKE
STARTS RELEASING.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...BAS
AVIATION...NC
MARINE...NC
HYDROLOGY...EAL
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