073
FXAK67 PAJK 101353
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
553 AM AKDT MON AUG 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
-SUICIDE BASIN GLACIER DAMMED LAKE CONTINUES TO FILL. AT THIS
TIME, IT IS EXPECTED TO BE FULL SOMETIME AUGUST 11TH OR 12TH. IN
THE PAST, IT HAS TAKEN UP TO 6 DAYS FOR THE MAIN FLOODING EVENT
TO START AFTER THE BASIN IS FULL. VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/AJK/SUICIDEBASIN FOR MORE INFORMATION.
-NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES OR RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK FOR THE PANHANDLE.
SHORT TERM
/TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
CONTINUED QUIETER WEATHER LASTS INTO TODAY, WITH A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND CONTINUING THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
LASTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST IN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE SOUTHERN
YUKON, WITH THE UPPER PARTS OF THE HAINES HIGHWAY AND NEAR WHITE
PASS BOTH SEEING HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SEEING SHOWERS MOVE IN.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE CLOSE TO THESE AREAS TODAY, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES BEING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, HOWEVER THE
QUESTION ON IF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACTUALLY PUSH INTO OUR
AREA REMAINS UNCERTAIN. SOME SHOWERS MAY PUSH ACROSS INTO OTHER
INLAND PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE FROM THE EAST, HOWEVER MUCH OF THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE OVER THE
ICE FIELDS.
A STRONGER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY OVER THE GULF, ALLOWING FOR A SHIFT FROM A W-LY FLOW TO
MORE OF A NW- LY AND OFFSHORE FLOW, KEEPING SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
LOW STRATUS MARINE DECK SITTING OFFSHORE AND LOWERED VISIBILITY
OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING FOR SOME COMMUNITIES AND WATERS ALONG
THE GULF COAST. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL HELP BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT THE
CLOUD COVER OVER THE PANHANDLE, AND ALONG WITH ELEVATED 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL STILL SEE SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER OVER
PRIMARILY THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE, BEFORE CLEARING UP
INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS MORE OF THE PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES WILL GO
FROM HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S TODAY TO REACHING MID 70S TO
NEAR 80 BY WEDNESDAY. SEA BREEZE POTENTIAL OF 15-20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR AREAS THAT CLEAR UP DURING THE DAY.
LONG TERM
/WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WEDNESDAY, A CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN WILL REACH
FULL MATURITY, BEGINNING TO DECAY AS IT LIFTS NORTH. THREE PRIMARY
FEATURES OF INTEREST AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF ARE:
STRENGTH OF THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW, CLEAR/WARM OVER THE
PANHANDLE FOR THE MID TO END OF THE WEEK, AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND. TOUCHING ON THE LOW FIRST,
ENSEMBLES SHOW AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG
THE AK PENINSULA, WITH SOUTHERLIES BUILDING IN THE CENTRAL GULF;
WINDS REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE. OUR STUBBORN HIGH OVER THE EASTERN
GULF CEDES TERRITORY, MAKING A SLIGHT RETREAT INTO THE PANHANDLE,
WITH NORTH-WESTERLIES STILL IMPACTING MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS.
OVERALL, LITTLE CONCERN FOR MAJOR MARINE IMPACTS WITH CONTINUED
FOCUS FOR NORTHWEST WINDS OF MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES ALONG THE
ALEXANDER ARCHIPELAGO AND SEA BREEZES THRU THE INSIDE.
AS THIS HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE PANHANDLE THURSDAY, WARM AND DRY
ONCE AGAIN BECOMES THE THEME. DIGGING INTO THE 850MB TEMPS, THE
LREF SHOWS A LEFT-SKEWED DISTRIBUTION BASED AROUND 7C TO 15C, WITH
THE MODE AROUND 13C, TRANSLATING TO 75F TO 85F SURFACE TEMPS,
ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE EXTREME FORECAST
INDEX SHINES MORE LIGHT INTO THIS, WITH AGREEMENT IN ABNORMAL
WARMTH INCREASING ITS FOOTPRINT OVER THE PANHANDLE INTO THE END OF
THIS WEEK. A NOTE, IT’S NOT JUST ABOUT THE AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES, NIGHTLY LOW TEMPERATURES ALSO LIKELY REMAIN ABOUT
10F ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
MOVING ONTO MOISTURE, BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND THIS PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE DOMINANT HIGH, OR AT A MINIMUM, PUSH THE
RIDGE FURTHER EAST, WITH SOUTHWESTERLIES PICKING UP ON SOME
EQUATORIAL MOISTURE AND FUNNELING IT INTO THE GULF. A FEW ENSEMBLE
OUTLIERS WANT TO BRING A QUICK HIT OF MODERATE AR CONDITIONS;
HOWEVER, OVERALL MODEST INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT VALUES SUGGEST
JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS, AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT RAIN, BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
/THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE IN TANDEM
WITH A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF IS
KEEPING A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. GENERALLY
HIGH LEVEL OVERCAST ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES KEEPING
THINGS MOSTLY VFR, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MORNING NUISANCE
IFR/LIFR DECK LYING UNDERNEATH. SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SAW MORE
CLEARING OVERNIGHT, AS A RESULT A NICE MORNING MARINE IFR LAYER
HAS WORKED ITS WAY IN WITH CIGS 500 TO 800FT OVER PRINCE OF
WALES, KETCHIKAN, AND ANNETTE. EXPECTING IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON TO PREDOMINATE VFR ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH A
GENERAL RINSE AND REPEAT FORECAST, ALBEIT WITH SLIGHTLY MORE SKY
CLEARING EXPECTED THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE DURING
THE AFTERNOON TO VFR WITH CIGS AOA 5000FT, HOWEVER DIMINISH
ROUTINELY OVERNIGHT HAS MARINE LAYER RETURNS.
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE
COMING HOURS REACHING SUSTAINED 10 TO 15KTS THIS AFTERNOON, CAN'T
RULE OUT A GUST UP TO 20KTS UNDER ANY SEABREEZE INFLUENCES,
PARTICULARLY NEAR TAIYA INLET. NO LLWS CONCERNS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
MARINE
OUTSIDE: A 1023MB HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, KEEPING GENERALLY OVERCAST
SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALONG IN THE OUTER WATERS.
WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN LARGELY BENIGN THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK, AROUND
4FT OR LESS ALONG THE COAST WITH A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY SWELL OF
2FT OR LESS. ACCOMPANYING THIS HIGH PRESSURE IS BROAD WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE NE GULF COAST DOWN TO DIXON ENTRANCE
AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS OR LESS, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED IN
THE VICINITY OF CAPE SPENCER AND CAPE DECISION, PARTICULARLY BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAIN MARINE CONCERN FOR OUTER AND COASTAL
WATERS WILL BE NIGHTLY RETURN OF MARINE LAYER, DROPPING
VISIBILITIES POTENTIALLY AS LOW AS ONE QUARTER MILE EACH MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE REST OF THE GULF AND PANHANDLE
AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
INSIDE: CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INSIDE WATERS REMAIN RELATIVELY
BENIGN THIS MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS SEEING WINDS ABOVE 10
KT, NAMELY NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES NEAR CROSS SOUND AND INTO ICY
STRAIT. MAIN HAZARD THIS MORNING IS AN AREA OF DENSE FOG NEAR THE
ENTRANCE OF CROSS SOUND, WITH VISIBILITIES 1NM OR LESS AS EVIDENT
BY FAA WEBCAMS NEAR CAPE SPENCER. THIS PATTERN OF RELATIVELY
BENIGN CONDITIONS WITH MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE AND PATCHY FOG IN
THE MORNING GIVING WAY TO INCREASING WINDS AND SEA BREEZES BY THE
AFTERNOON WILL HOLD TRUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. WAVE HEIGHTS
REMAIN 4 FEET OR LESS THROUGH EARLY WEEK AS WELL WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS TO BREAK DOWN THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OUT IN THE GULF.
HYDROLOGY
SUICIDE BASIN CONTINUES TO FILL THIS MONDAY MORNING WITH NO MAJOR
CHANGES OVERNIGHT, RISING TO AROUND 1343 FT AS OF 4AM AKDT. THE
OVERALL MESSAGE REMAINS THE SAME, WITH THE CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER
IN COMBINATION WITH THE CALVING EVENT OVER THE WEEKEND, THE MOST
LIKELY DATE FOR A FULL BASIN IS AUGUST 11TH TO 12TH. THE OVERFLOW
CHANNEL REMAINS AROUND 1350FT. IN THE PAST, IT HAS TAKEN UP TO 6
DAYS FOR THE MAIN FLOODING EVENT TO START AFTER THE BASIN IS FULL
AND STARTED TO OVERTOP INTO THE OVERFLOW CHANNEL.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CONTINO
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...NM
HYDROLOGY...NM
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