736
FXAK67 PAJK 110624
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1024 PM AKDT MON AUG 10 2026
UPDATE
AFTER THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. NO BIG CHANGES TO THE PLANS.
MAINLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO START THE NIGHT, AND MAY BRIEFLY
LOWER TO MARGINAL IN THE 1500 TO 3000 FT RANGE. NOT EXPECTING ANY
MAJOR FLIGHT HAZARDS THROUGH THE TUESDAY EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 312 PM MON AUGUST 10
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUICIDE BASIN GLACIER DAMMED LAKE CONTINUES TO FILL. AT THIS TIME,
THE MOST LIKELY TIME TO SEE A FULL BASIN WILL BE SOMETIME
TUESDAY, AUGUST 11TH. IN THE PAST, IT HAS TAKEN UP TO 6 DAYS FOR
THE MAIN FLOODING EVENT TO START AFTER THE BASIN IS FULL. VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/AJK/SUICIDEBASIN FOR MORE INFORMATION.
- WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. LOWER 80S
WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE SOUTH FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
- THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BRING ELEVATED THREAT FOR FIRE
STARTS ACROSS MUCH OF SE AK. A FEW SMALL FIRES HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED ALREADY OVER THE PAST WEEK.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...CLOUD COVER HAS MOSTLY CLEARED
FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES REMAINING
FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. BECAUSE OF THESE CLEARER SKIES TO THE
NORTH, TEMPERATURES INCREASED INTO THE HIGH 60S TO LOW 70S. THIS
TREND OF WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE GULF. THERE IS A CHANCE AGAIN
THIS EVENING FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH NORTH OF HAINES AND SKAGWAY
THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH A LESS LIKELY CHANCE THAN
YESTERDAY, ALTHOUGH A FEW CELLS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP.
AS WE CONTINUE INTO THE WEEK, THE STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CREATE NORTHWESTERLY AND OFFSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
HELP TO CLEAR OUT UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND DECREASE ANY CHANCES
FOR LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP BRINGING
PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS TO LAND AREAS TOUCHING THE INNER CHANNELS OR
GULF WATERS. SEA BREEZES WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE
COOLER SIDE. WARMEST TEMPERATURE, INTO THE 70S, WILL OCCUR OVER MORE
INLAND AND PROTECTED AREAS.
LONG TERM...PRIMARY FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON WARM/DRY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF EQUATORIAL
TROPICAL STORMS AND SUBSEQUENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE N/PAC.
STARTING OFF, FOR THE END OF THE WEEK CLUSTERS STILL SHOW STRONG
AGREEMENT IN A RIDGE DOMINATING THE WESTERN SEABOARD, LIMITING
MAJOR SURFACE LOWS FROM MOVING INTO THE GULF AND SERVING AS THE
SOURCE FOR ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LREF 850MB
TEMPERATURE HISTOGRAMS HAVE SHIFTED TO MORE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION,
TRANSLATING TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE FOR 12C TO 14C AT 5000FT BY
THUR/FRI. FOR FOLKS AT SEA LEVEL, THIS MEANS WARM TEMPERATURES,
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS LIKELY IN THE MID-70S TO MID-80S, DEPENDING
ON WHERE YOU ARE IN THE PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT MAKE AN
APPEARANCE THUR/FRI ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREA; HOWEVER,
THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON WHERE THE RIDGE AXIS SETS UP AND A
SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN FROM CANADA ALONG THE COAST RANGE,
SOMETHING TO WATCH.
MOVING THROUGH THE WEEKEND GUIDANCE BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE
SUGGESTING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME MOISTURE; HOWEVER,
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE TOO SOON. THINKING WE
HOLD ON TO WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO SATURDAY, WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE ARRIVING BY LATE SUNDAY AND/OR START OF
NEXT WEEK. WITH THAT SAID, THERE ARE A VARIETY OF OUTCOMES IN
VARIOUS ENSEMBLE SYSTEM SOLUTIONS; CURRENT FORECAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON STICKS WITH TROUGHING SETTING UP IN THE GULF AND AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN.
FOR THE MARITIME ENVIRONMENT, ANTICIPATE NORTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE
ALONG THE COAST, WITH DAILY SEA BREEZES MOVING THROUGH THE
INSIDE, PEAK AFTERNOON SPEEDS LIKELY MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES. BY
SUNDAY/MONDAY NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST GIVE WAY TO
SOUTHERLIES AS A SERIES OF LOWS MOVES INTO THE GULF. WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES ALONG THE
NORTHERN COAST.
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THESE
CEILINGS SHOULD BREAK UP BUT MAY PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. A MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS EVENING
BRINGING LOWERED CEILINGS WITH CEILINGS DROPPING TO MVFR AND
POTENTIALLY IFR SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW THIS MORNING. WITH THE
CONTINUED OFFSHORE FLOW, WE WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ALTHOUGH SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP
IN THE AFTERNOONS OFF THE TERRAIN.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): LIGHT BREEZES CONTINUE TO BE
REPORTED BY THE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO FROM THE W-NW AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE
AREA. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO SHIFT, THE NW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THE CAPE
DECISION DOWN TO DIXON ENTRANCE REGION WITH MODERATE BREEZES
POSSIBLE STARTING WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK.
BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, THESE WINDS COULD BE UP TO FRESH TO
STRONG BREEZES.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZES CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE AREA. 15-20 KT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS SEA BREEZES INCREASE
IN STRENGTH BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THE
WEATHER PATTERN WE ARE IN, CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE
HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS. SEAS DURING THIS TIME COULD GET UP TO 3-
4 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. SOME FOG FORMATION MAY BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE MARINE LAYER.
FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NO REAL SIGNAL FOR A PATTERN CHANGE LIKELY UNTIL
THE WEEKEND. WITH THE PERSISTENT WEATHER, WE HAVE STARTED TO SEE
TEMPERATURES JUMP INTO THE 70S AND SOME POCKETS OF 80S FOR THE
INLAND AREAS. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE FALLEN DOWN TO THE 30S TO
40S FOR SOME AREAS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS BUT SHOULD REBOUND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THE CONTINUED LACK OF RAIN,
FINE FUELS SUCH AS GRASSES WILL CONTINUE TO DRY. SOME LIGHTNING
STRIKES WERE ALSO NOTED ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH CANADA
YESTERDAY AND IS LIKELY POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.
HYDROLOGY...SUICIDE BASIN CONTINUES TO FILL THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WATER LEVELS SITTING AROUND 1,345' AS OF THE TIME OF WRITING. WE
CURRENTLY EXPECT THE BASIN TO FILL WITHIN THE NEXT DAY BEFORE
WATER STARTS TO GO OVER THE SPILLWAY. WITH WATER FLOWING OVER THE
SPILLWAY, A RELEASE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN 2 TO 6 DAYS. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS IN THE BASIN AS WELL AS THE
MENDENHALL RIVER AND WILL MAKES UPDATES AS THEY ARE NEEDED.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...SF
MARINE...SF
FIRE WEATHER...AP
HYDROLOGY...SF
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