146
FXAK67 PAJK 120001
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
401 PM AKDT TUE AUG 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUICIDE BASIN HAS STARTED TO DROP TODAY AND WE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR LEVELS IN THE BASIN AS WELL AS THE MENDENHALL RIVER.
- WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. LOWER 80S
WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND FAR NORTHERN INTERIOR FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
- THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BRING ELEVATED THREAT FOR FIRE
STARTS ACROSS MUCH OF SE AK. A FEW SMALL FIRES HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED ALREADY OVER THE PAST WEEK.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK, THE PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE THE
DETERMINING FACTOR ON THE OVERALL WEATHER FOR SE AK.
THE MAIN FORECAST STORY FOR FOR THE AREA WILL BE THE WARM
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF PANHANDLE. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
GULF, MARINE STRATUS WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL
REGIONS, AS A RESULT SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVER THE
PANHANDLE. THIS COUPLED WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE.
THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE AREA AROUND SKAGWAY, HAINES AND
KLUKWAN WHERE TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE WATER ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE LOW 80S. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AND BY THURSDAY HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S FOR THE CENTRAL AND MOST OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. FOR
THE NE PORTIONS (SKAGWAY, HAINES AND KLUKWAN) AS WELL AS FOR THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 80S WITH
SOME EXTREMELY ISOLATED AND ELEVATED AREAS IN THE MID 80S.
ADDITIONALLY, MODELS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALONG THE COASTAL RANGE RIDGE LINE AS WELL AS
FOR THE SE CORNER OF PANHANDLE. HOWEVER, EVEN ACCORDING TO THE
MODEL GUIDANCE THESE ARE UNLIKELY. THE REASON BEING THAT WHILE
THERE IS INSTABILITY, THERE IS NOT A LOT OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
THAT WOULD BE NEEDED. THAT SAID, SOME OF THE INGREDIENTS ARE
THERE AND WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS.
LOOKING AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLE, THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT WEATHER REGIME. MOISTURE IS
WRAPPING AROUND THE RIDGE AND CREATING A BROKEN MARINE LAYER THAT
HAS BEEN MOVING IN AND OUT OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST AND HAS BEEN
MORE PERSISTENT FOR THE NE SECTIONS. THIS MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES LOWER COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE REGION. WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREEING
ON AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DISSIPATING AND BEING REPLACED BY A WEAK
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY FRIDAY, WITH THE RIDGE
REBUILDING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHIFT WILL BRING POSITIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION AND SOME LIFTING, WHILE MOISTURE ADVECTION
ARRIVES VIA AN EASTERLY WAVE IN THE 700MB LEVEL. ADDITIONALLY, A
SURFACE MARITIME RIDGE FORMING IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL GENERATE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WHICH COULD WORK IN
CONJUNCTION WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZES TO PROMOTE WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR END OF WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND,
GUIDANCE IS KEYING IN ON SEASONABLY HIGH CAPE VALUES IN PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN REGIONS, THOUGH FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW DUE TO DRIER CONDITIONS IN MANY OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
PRESSURE LEVELS AND A LACK OF SUPPORT FOR SUSTAINING STORMS
MOVING IN FROM CANADA. CUMULUS FIELDS ARE MORE LIKELY THAN STORMS,
AS A LACK OF A CAP AND SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INHIBITS POTENTIAL
CONVECTION. WHILE WESTERLY FLOW ON FRIDAY MIGHT DRIVE SOME
LOCALIZED CONVECTION THROUGH UPSLOPING, MARINE INFLUENCES WILL
LIKELY STABILIZE THE SURFACE LAYER AND CHOKE OFF DEVELOPMENT.
MEANWHILE, LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BOOST
TEMPERATURES, WITH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY CONTINUING THIS WARM SPELL
AS TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, BEFORE COOLING
RETURNS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF NEXT WEEK, AND IF LINGERING
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BLOCK PRECIPITATION FROM MOVING IN. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS NEXT SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION.
AVIATION.../THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN ITS PRESENCE OVER THE GULF, ALLOWING
A MARINE LAYER TO DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME LOWER
CIGS UNDER 3KFT COULD DROP PAKW, PAKT AND PAWG TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. WITH ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP FOR
SEAK, THE MARINE LAYER WILL LIFT, AND WITH IT CIGS ACROSS THE
REGION, LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP MODESTLY WITH SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT, LARGELY REMAINING 5-10 KTS FOR ALL TAF SITES,
ALTHOUGH PAGY WILL BE 15G25KT THIS EVENING AND BECOME 10-15KT LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION AND LLWS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE
ANY CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOUR TAF VALID PERIOD.
MARINE
OUTSIDE: MARINE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD, TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT
OVER THE EASTERN GULF. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL
BECOME FRESH FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS FROM NEAR CAPE SPENCER
ON DOWN TO DIXON ENTRANCE. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 3 TO 4 FT WILL INCREASE
TO 4 TO 6 FT BY MIDWEEK AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH WEAKENS. MAIN
MARINE CONCERN FOR OUTER AND COASTAL WATERS WILL BE NIGHTLY RETURN
OF MARINE LAYER, WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS IMPACTING VISIBILITY.
INSIDE: HIGH PRESSURE OUT IN THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH WINDS MODERATE TO FRESH FOR THE INNER
CHANNELS. LOCALIZED WIND SHIFTS DUE TO SEA BREEZES ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT OVERALL WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTHWEST. STRONGEST
INNER CHANNEL WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS SEA BREEZES INCREASE IN STRENGTH
BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE AREA WITH
NO REAL SIGNAL OF A PATTERN CHANGE LIKELY UNTIL THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. WITH THE PERSISTENT WEATHER, WE HAVE STARTED TO SEE
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 70S WITH SOME POCKETS OF 80S FOR THE
INLAND AREAS WITH WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK. LOOKING AT THE PAST FEW DAYS, RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE
FALLEN DOWN TO THE 30S TO 40S FOR SOME AREAS DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS WITH REBOUNDING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE 90S.
WITH THE CONTINUED LACK OF RAIN, FINE FUELS SUCH AS GRASSES WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE PANHANDLE BORDER WITH CANADA AS
WELL AS THE SE PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE LACK OF
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LESS THAT
15%.
OVERALL, EXPECTING THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO
DEVELOP, THE MAIN VARIABLE TO WATCH FOR WILL BE DAYTIME WINDS. AS
OF NOW, EXPECTING THE WORST FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER GIVEN THE PERSISTENT
PATTERN CAN'T RULE OUT THIS EXTENDING FURTHER INTO THE WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
A DROP HAS BEEN NOTED IN SUICIDE BASIN AND WE ARE
CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE LEVEL IN THE BASIN AS WELL AS THE LEVEL
OF THE RIVER. SHOULD A CHANGE IN THE LEVELS BE DETECTED, A FLOOD
WARNING WILL THEN BE ISSUED. FOLKS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
WEATHER.GOV/AJK/SUICIDEBASIN AND SOCIAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM AKDT THURSDAY FOR
AKZ318-319.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BUTWIN
LONG TERM...BAS
AVIATION...VJ/SJ
MARINE...DS
HYDROLOGY...SF
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