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FXAK67 PAJK 210525 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
925 PM AKDT THU AUG 20 2026
UPDATE
JUST SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MARINE AND AVIATION
FORECASTS THIS EVENING.
MARINE UPDATE
WE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OFF ICY CAPE
EARLIER IN THE EVENING AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE DROPPED TO 10
TO 15 KT AND SEAS ARE DOWN TO AROUND 6 FT. NEXT INCREASE IN WINDS
IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEKEND (SUNDAY) AS THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULFAK. 05/GARMON
AVIATION UPDATE
GENERALLY, WE ARE STILL NOTING IFR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/3RD OF THE PANHANDLE THIS EVENING WITH MVFR TO VFR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS. THE IFR CONDITIONS ARE AHEAD OF A
WEAKENING FRONTAL OCCLUSION MOVING IN OFF THE NORTHEASTERN GULFAK
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS. WE EXPECT TO SEE SOME
BREAKS IN THE MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS/RAIN OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH, HOWEVER AS WE CROSS 12Z WE EXPECT THE
LOWER DECK (IFR) TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT NORTH OF A SITKA TO
JUNEAU LINE. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS, WE DO EXPECT TO SEE SOME
LOW STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT AROUND PRINCE OF WALES AND FOR THE
PETERSBURG AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK. THE SOUTHERN AREAS THAT GET
MARINE LAYER AND FOG TOWARD MORNING WILL SEE BREAKS AS WE HEAD
INTO THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. 05/GARMON
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 301 PM AKDT THU AUG 20 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MULTIPLE SYSTEMS WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
PERIODS OF RAIN, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
- COOLER TEMPS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH. BREAKS IN CLOUDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE COULD BRING HIGH TEMPS INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S AND POSSIBLY LOW 70S THROUGH FRIDAY.
- WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE SHIFTY AND GUSTY AS FRONTS MOVE ACROSS
THE GULF. SEA BREEZES WILL PREVAIL IN THE INNER CHANNELS.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE THURSDAY EVENING.
MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON WHAT COULD BE A PERIOD OF DRYER
CONDITIONS, OR AT LEAST A SLOWING IN RAIN RATES, SOMETIME FRIDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE OF WHETHER IT'LL BE DRY OR MORE SHOWERY IS
LOW DUE TO THE INCREASED SPREAD IN ACCUMULATION TOTALS BEGINNING
FRIDAY MORNING. WE HAVE BEEN SEEING THE CURRENT FRONT MOVE SLOWER
THAN THE MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON, SO THE FRONT COULD STILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE BY FRIDAY MORNING, WHICH IS
ALSO A SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY. CONFIDENCE FOR CONSISTENT RAIN
RESUMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THEN INCREASES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER POCKET OF MOISTURE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, THE RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY
SOUTH. THIS LOOKS TO ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE BRIEFLY, BRINGING DRYER CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO
BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE WHOLE PANHANDLE WHICH IS
DISCUSSED BELOW.
LONG TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...ACTIVE WEATHER
CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND, WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
BREAK MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGH SUNDAY AND LINGERING IN THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODELS ON WHERE THIS LOW WILL BE IN THE GULF, THOUGH STARTING TO
LEAN TOWARDS THE MORE SOUTHERN, CLOSER TO THE PANHANDLE POSITION.
AS THE LOW MOVES IN FROM THE WEST, THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE SHOULD
SEE THE FRONT MOVE IN FIRST BEFORE RAINFALL QUICKLY SPREADS TO THE
REST OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE MORNING. OVERALL, STILL
EXPECTING MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE TO SEE AROUND AN INCH OF RAINFALL
ON SUNDAY, WITH CLOSER TO AN INCH AND A HALF FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS. STILL NOT EXPECTING
STRONG GULF WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH COASTAL WATERS ONLY
REACHING UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS OF SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH THE ONSET
OF THE FRONT BEFORE DIMINISHING FOR NEXT WEEK. AS FOR THE INNER
CHANNELS, LYNN CANAL MAY SEE WINDS INCREASE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.
SEEING POTENTIAL FOR A BREAK GOING INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW DIPS
SOUTH, THOUGH KEEPING AN EYE ON UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW THAT MAY
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS IN BC TO TRAVERSE INTO THE PANHANDLE. THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE HAVE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME SUN BEHIND THIS
FRONT ON MONDAY, WITH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE JOINING IN BY TUESDAY.
THE SLIGHT PERIOD OF RIDGING THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN GULF
SHOULD ALLOW WINDS IN THE INNER CHANNELS TO SWITCH TO A MORE
OFFSHORE DIRECTION THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER BECOMES MORE
ACTIVE THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
CLEARING, SEA BREEZES SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH MIDDAY AND TURN WINDS
BACK ONSHORE FOR A PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
INCREASE ABOVE NORMAL FOR DAYS THAT SEE THIS CLEARING, ALLOWING FOR
HIGHS REACHING 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY.
AVIATION...
ANOTHER LOW DAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH, WITH MVFR BECOMING
THE DOMINANT CATEGORY OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE. HOWEVER, THE
CLOSER YOU ARE TO THE COAST, THE MORE LIKELY YOU ENCOUNTER IFR TO
LIFR CIGS ALONG WITH +RA DIMINISHING VSBY BELOW 2SM. CONDITIONS
WILL EITHER HOLD OR NOT IMPROVE MUCH TONIGHT AS A SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO MOVE EAST OVER THE PANHANDLE DROPPING MANY AREAS FURTHER EAST
TO MVFR CIGS OF 1500 TO 2000 FT. EXPECT LITTLE IMPROVEMENT THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.
FOR FOLKS SOUTH OF FREDERICK, VFR WAS WIDESPREAD AND WILL SLOWLY
SHUT DOWN TONIGHT. THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE SHOWS CONFIDENCE THAT
CIGS NEAR 500 TO 1500 FT WILL SETUP FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
CLARENCE STRAIT. FOR WESTERN PRINCE OF WALES, MVFR CONDITIONS
DIMINISH TO LIFR ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS FOR PRINCE OF
WALES AND SOUTH OF FREDERICK SOUND ON FRIDAY WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.
SIMPLY PUT, EARLY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE SOCKED IN BUT ANTICIPATE
WIDESPREAD VFR BY 20 TO 22Z.
THESE LOW CIGS/VSBY ARE IN LARGE THANKS TO THE LITTLE AMOUNT OF
WIND ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE NO
SIGNIFICANT LLWS. FOLKS GOING INTO SKAGWAY OR NEAR METLAKATLA WILL
SEE THE HIGHEST WINDS, LIKELY REACHING 15 TO 20 KNOTS LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THANKS FOR THE PIREPS.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE:
STARTING OUT THIS AFTERNOON, COASTAL BUOYS AND SATELLITE WIND
PASSES SHOW A CLEAR FRONTAL SIGNATURE ALONG THE COAST, WITH
EASTERLY WINDS OF STRONG BREEZES FROM CROSS SOUND TO CAPE ST.
ELIAS. FURTHERMORE, THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CARRIED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF, WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES REPORTED
NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND. TAKING A DIVE INTO SEA STATE, A VARIETY OF
TYPICAL WAVE SYSTEMS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE GULF, WITH THE
DOMINANT GROUP A SOUTHWEST SWELL FOCUSED NEAR 10 SECONDS WITH
SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES ON TOP. THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST WHERE EASTERLY WINDS ARE DRIVING FRESH SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT,
BURYING THE SWELL GROUP.
TONIGHT, SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AS
THE SUPPORTING FETCH OF WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF MOVE INTO
THE COAST, ALLOWING THE UNDERLYING SOUTHERLY SWELL 2 TO 3FT AT 15
SECONDS TO EMERGE, DOMINATING THE SEA STATE, WITH SOUTHWEST TO
WESTERLY MODERATE BREEZES ADDING A FOOT OR TWO TO THE SWELL GROUP;
CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR 5 FT
FRIDAY, DIMINISHING TO 4 FT SATURDAY. NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST
MOVES INTO THE GULF SUNDAY BRINGING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF
MODERATE BREEZES ALONG OUR COAST. ONE EXCEPTION COULD BE NEAR
DIXON ENTRANCE, WHERE A TRIPLE POINT LOW COULD FORM, SERVING AS
THE CATALYST FOR EASTERLY STRONG BREEZES.
INSIDE:
OVERALL WIND CONCERNS REMAIN WITHIN WHAT WE TYPICALLY SEE THIS
TIME OF YEAR. ANTICIPATING MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE INSIDE, THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NORTHERN LYNN
CANAL, SOUTHERN CLARENCE STRAIT (SHIP ISLAND TO DIXON), REVILLA,
AND DIXON ENTRANCE, WHERE WE COULD SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF WIND
CLOSER TO FRESH BREEZES INTO SATURDAY. FURTHERMORE, MARINERS
MOVING AROUND THE INSIDE SHOULD BE AWARE OF OUR SWITCH FROM
PLEASANT SUMMER WEATHER, TO RESPECTABLE RAINFALL, THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...AGP
LONG TERM...ZTK
AVIATION...AP
MARINE...AP
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