836
FXAK67 PAJK 211911
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1111 AM AKDT FRI AUG 21 2026
UPDATE...TO THE AVIATION FORECAST
AVIATION.../THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
A FRONT IS MAINLY IMPACTING
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TODAY, BRINGING A SURGE OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, WHICH IS MANIFESTING AS
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE REGION. ALSO NOTING
THE FREEZING LEVELS ARE FORECASTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE FL200 TODAY
AND TOMORROW AS. AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES WINDS AND DRIVES
OUT LOWER CLOUDS, MANY LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 19Z TO 21Z, WITH COASTAL
SITES STAYING MVFR WHILE INLAND SITES TREND TOWARD VFR THROUGH THE
DAY INTO TOMORROW. HOWEVER, POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR CIGS AOB 2000
FT, WITH REDUCED VSBY DUE TO PASSING MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS, PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHERN REGION AND ALONG THE COASTLINE, AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. LIGHT TURBULENCE IS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY AROUND MOUNTAIN TOP LEVELS. ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION TODAY, THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE WILL SEE A PUSH OF RAIN AS FAR SOUTH AS PAKW, PAPG, AND
PAWG LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SITES ARE ALSO LIKELY TO BE PRONE
TO FOG FORMATION TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH 15Z. THIS IS DUE TO
LIGHTER OVERNIGHT WINDS, A STABLE MORNING INVERSION LAYER, AND
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, WHICH MAY CAUSE CIGS TO DROP INTO
IFR OR LIFR CATEGORIES FOR SEVERAL CONSISTENT HOURS, SIMILAR TO
CONDITIONS OBSERVED THIS MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT
405 AM AKDT FRI AUG 21 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODS OF RAIN.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MAINLY SEASONABLE, BUT BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE COULD BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 70S TODAY.
- WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE VARIABLE, AND AT TIMES GUSTY, AS FRONTAL
SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE GULF; AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE INNER CHANNELS.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...A WEAK OCCLUDED FRONT IS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS TIME AND BRINGING LOW CLOUDS,
DRIZZLE, AND LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE.
CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED IN THE EXTREME SOUTH, BUT THOSE AREAS REMAIN
DRY. AREAS OF FOG HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE, WITH VISIBILITIES OCCASIONALLY LESS
THAN A MILE.
WHILE MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FROM ABOUT SITKA AND
POINTS NORTH THROUGH THIS MORNING, WE SHOULD SEE A RESUMPTION OF
STEADIER RAINS RETURN AROUND MIDDAY TO PARTS OF THE GULF COAST AND
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT, WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE NORTH AS SOME
RAIN ADVANCES INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS WELL.
FOR SATURDAY, PERSISTENT WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A FEW AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE, BUT OVERALL WE EXPECT A LULL IN
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION. YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND BRING
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BEFORE PUSHING
FARTHER NORTH ON SUNDAY. FOR MORE DETAILS, PLEASE SEE THE
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE NORTHEAST
GULF COAST TO AS WARM AS THE LOW TO MID 70S IN THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE TODAY. SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...ACTIVE WEATHER
CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND, WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
BREAK MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGH SUNDAY AND LINGERING IN THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODELS ON WHERE THIS LOW WILL BE IN THE GULF, THOUGH STARTING TO
LEAN TOWARDS THE MORE SOUTHERN, CLOSER TO THE PANHANDLE POSITION.
AS THE LOW MOVES IN FROM THE WEST, THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE SHOULD
SEE THE FRONT MOVE IN FIRST BEFORE RAINFALL QUICKLY SPREADS TO THE
REST OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE MORNING. OVERALL, STILL
EXPECTING MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE TO SEE AROUND AN INCH OF RAINFALL
ON SUNDAY, WITH CLOSER TO AN INCH AND A HALF FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS. STILL NOT EXPECTING
STRONG GULF WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH COASTAL WATERS ONLY
REACHING UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS OF SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH THE ONSET
OF THE FRONT BEFORE DIMINISHING FOR NEXT WEEK. AS FOR THE INNER
CHANNELS, LYNN CANAL MAY SEE WINDS INCREASE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.
SEEING POTENTIAL FOR A BREAK GOING INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW DIPS
SOUTH, THOUGH KEEPING AN EYE ON UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW THAT MAY
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS IN BC TO TRAVERSE INTO THE PANHANDLE. THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE HAVE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME SUN BEHIND THIS
FRONT ON MONDAY, WITH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE JOINING IN BY TUESDAY.
THE SLIGHT PERIOD OF RIDGING THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN GULF
SHOULD ALLOW WINDS IN THE INNER CHANNELS TO SWITCH TO A MORE
OFFSHORE DIRECTION THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER BECOMES MORE
ACTIVE THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
CLEARING, SEA BREEZES SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH MIDDAY AND TURN WINDS
BACK ONSHORE FOR A PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
INCREASE ABOVE NORMAL FOR DAYS THAT SEE THIS CLEARING, ALLOWING FOR
HIGHS REACHING 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY.
MARINE...
(INNER CHANNELS): THIS MORNING, WINDS ARE NW AROUND 10 KTS IN
CLARENCE STRAIT WITH A RIDGE SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE. OTHERWISE,
WINDS IN THE INNER CHANNELS ARE GENERALLY BENIGN AS AN OCCLUDED
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. MODELS ARE HINTING AT
WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY IN LYNN CANAL UP TO 25 KTS. HOWEVER,
THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, AND
WHETHER OR NOT SKIES CLEARING CAN ENHANCE THE SEA BREEZE THROUGH
TAIYA INLET. ANOTHER LOW FORMS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AND THIS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE PANHANDLE BY MONDAY. BASED ON THE
CURRENT EXPECTED LOCATION, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE IN
CLARENCE STRAIT.
(OUTSIDE WATERS): WITH AN OCCLUDING FRONT IN THE GULF, WINDS ARE
GENERALLY UNDER 15 KTS WITH A FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE.
AS THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE, EXPECT
GENERALLY ONSHORE FLOW. BY SATURDAY, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO FORM, AND IT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. OVERALL, THE SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY
DISORGANIZED, BUT MAY LEAD TO SOME WINDS UP TO 25 KTS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.
SHORT TERM...MJB
LONG TERM...ZTK
AVIATION...BAS
MARINE...AP
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