765
FXAK67 PAJK 220000
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 21 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODS OF RAIN, WITH CHANCES INCREASING
INTO SUNDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
- WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE VARIABLE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGES, AND AT
TIMES GUSTY, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS AS
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES DEVELOP.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE NORTHMEN
PANHANDLE WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FROM 4PM TO 10PM.
MEAN VALUES FROM THE NBM ARE PROJECTING 0.9 INCHES IN JUNEAU ALL
THE WAY DOWN TO 0.5 INCHES AROUND THE REST OF THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. AFTER THIS PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH, THE
STREAM OF MOISTURE BEGINS FALLING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.
RAIN IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE LOOKS TO FALL OFF BETWEEN 1AM AND
4AM SATURDAY, WHICH IS AROUND WHEN IT WILL START RAINING IN THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO BRING SHOWERS TO
PETERSBURG, WRANGELL, AND PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND, BUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN KETCHIKAN AND ANNETTE ISLAND REMAIN LOW.
RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE MOSTLY OUT OF THE AREA BY 10AM SATURDAY DUE TO
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE PANHANDLE FOLLOWED BY
A DRY SLOT. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY SITS AROUND
30-40%, BUT SKIES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN CLOUDY ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF MEETS WITH THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM
LOWER LATITUDES. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING HEAVY, WIDESPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL SEE GREATER ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
MORNING AND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL SEE GREATER ACCUMULATIONS
SUNDAY NIGHT.
850MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY MORE ELEVATED
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY, BRINGING HIGH 60S TO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE, BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL WIPE OUT WARM TEMPERATURES.
ON SUNDAY, HIGH 50S AND LOW 60S CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MONDAY, MOVING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY. THE MODELS HAVE COME MORE
IN LINE ON THE LOW POSITIONING, INDICATING THAT THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WILL SEE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AS THE LOW MOVES IN FROM THE WEST, THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE SHOULD
SEE THE FRONT MOVE IN FIRST BEFORE RAINFALL QUICKLY SPREADS TO THE
REST OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MOST OF THIS RAIN
WILL FALL OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, TAPERING OFF FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. EXPECTING AROUND AN
INCH AND A HALF OF RAINFALL FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
IN 24 HOURS FROM EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR A MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE
BEHIND THE FRONT, THOUGH SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THROUGH SOME OF THE INNER CHANNELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY
IN LYNN CANAL.
POTENTIAL FOR A BREAK CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR THE EARLY WEEK AS
THE LOW DIPS SOUTH, THOUGH KEEPING AN EYE ON UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW THAT MAY ALLOW FOR SHOWERS IN BC TO TRAVERSE INTO THE
PANHANDLE. THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE HAVE POTENTIAL TO
SEE SOME SUN BEHIND THIS FRONT ON MONDAY, WITH THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE JOINING IN BY TUESDAY. THE SLIGHT PERIOD OF RIDGING THAT
DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN GULF SHOULD ALLOW WINDS IN THE INNER
CHANNELS TO SWITCH TO A MORE OFFSHORE DIRECTION OVERNIGHT BEFORE
THE WEATHER BECOMES MORE ACTIVE THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING, SEA BREEZES SHOULD INCREASE
THROUGH MIDDAY AND TURN WINDS BACK ONSHORE FOR A PERIOD. DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO INCREASE ABOVE NORMAL FOR DAYS THAT
SEE THIS CLEARING, ALLOWING FOR HIGHS REACHING THE HIGH 60S TO LOW
70S ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE PANHANDLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NBM POP IS GETTING WASHED
OUT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, SO SLIGHTLY INCREASED CONFIDENCE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH THE ONSET OF THE FRONT.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO IMPACT
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND OUTER COASTLINE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE
CENTRAL REGION NEAR PAPG AND PAWG OVERNIGHT. ON THE OTHER HAND,
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING CLEAR SKIES WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS AS A SURFACE LOW
PUSHES SOUTHWARD. A TEMPORARY BREAK IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TOMORROW MORNING BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z,
LIKELY RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
MAY PERSIST DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL AND A SURFACE INVERSION
MAINTAINING MOISTURE BELOW 5000 FT. IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, A
BAND OF RAIN IS FORECASTED TO PASS OVER PRINCE OF WALES AND
WRANGELL ISLAND BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z, WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS FURTHER
SOUTHEAST, THOUGH PAKT MAY EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS DURING THIS TIME.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CALM OVERNIGHT, WITH PEAK
SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS ISOLATED TO SITES NEAR LYNN CANAL,
INCLUDING PAGY, PAHN, AND PAJN. WHILE TURBULENCE IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TO LESSEN, WIND DIRECTION WILL REMAIN VARIABLE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR AND AS FAR SOUTH
AS FREDERICK SOUND. FINALLY, A CONTINUED PUSH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
KEEPS A WARMING TREND FOR FREEZING LEVELS, WHICH ARE CURRENTLY
SITUATED BETWEEN FL100 AND FL120.
MARINE
OUTSIDE: LOTS TO WRITE ABOUT, THE SIMPLE MESSAGE IS WESTERLY
MODERATE BREEZES FILL IN ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT, WITH FRESH
BREEZES NEAR CAPE SPENCER AND DIXON. MARINERS MOVING IN AND OUT OF
CROSS SOUND SHOULD BE AWARE OF WESTERLY FRESH SEAS AND THE TIDE
TIMINGS. THERE STILL EXISTS HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH A SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE GULF SUNDAY. FOR SUNDAY, CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS
CONFIDENCE IN ESE MODERATE BREEZES ALONG OUR COAST; HOWEVER, WE
COULD SEE MORE EXTENSIVE FRESH BREEZES ACROSS COASTAL WATERS.
CURRENT SITREP ALONG OUR NORTHERN COAST IS CLEAN SSW SWELL 14
SECONDS NEAR 3 TO 4 FT, WITH DIMINISHING SEAS 8 SECONDS 4 TO 5 FT
FROM CROSS SOUND TO CAPE DECISION. WINDS ARE BECOMING WESTERLY AT
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES. HOWEVER, CAPE SPENCER AND DIXON
ENTRANCE WILL SEE FRESH BREEZES INTO SATURDAY. PRIMARY IMPACT IS
FOR FOLKS ON SMALL SKIFFS MOVING AROUND.
SATURDAY A SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE ALASKA PENINSULA,
DRIVING A FETCH OF SOUTHWEST STRONG BREEZES ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF. THE PRIMARY QUESTION IS HOW STRONG WILL WINDS BECOME ALONG
OUR COAST AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST, WITH A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS.
SOME HIGH RES GUIDANCE WANTS TO PUT 20 KNOTS OF SE WINDS ALONG
OUR COAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE OTHERS SUGGEST WINDS AT A
RESPECTABLE 10 TO 15 KNOTS. FOR NOW, WE HIGHLIGHT MODERATE BREEZES
FOR MOST OF OUR COAST.
EITHER WAY, THIS FEATURE WILL START TO BURY THE LOW AMPLITUDE 12
TO 14 SECONDS SSW SWELL, BECOMING SEAS FOCUSED NEAR 8 SECONDS 4 TO
5 FT FOR SUNDAY. IF WE SEE 20 KNOTS OF WINDS, SE SEAS OF 5 TO 7
FT BECOME MORE LIKELY ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST, PRIMARILY
IMPACTING FOLKS IN SMALLER RECREATIONAL FISHING VESSELS.
INSIDE: A SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED FRONT IS MOVING
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON, FRESHENING WINDS UP ACROSS
CHATHAM AND STEPHENS TO MODERATE BREEZES. ANTICIPATE THESE
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO MOVE UP CHATHAM THIS EVENING INTO GLACIER BAY
AND PORTIONS OF ICY. WHILE NOT THE BLOW OF THE CENTURY, A 15 KNOT
WIND IN A LONG FETCH CAN MAKE CROSSING MAJOR PASSAGES IN A SMALL
SKIFF UNCOMFORTABLE. FURTHER NORTH IN LYNN CANAL, STRONG BREEZES
(22 TO 27 KNOTS) WERE REPORTED EARLIER, WHICH HAVE DIMINISHED TO
FRESH BREEZES. FOR NORTHERN LYNN, EXPECT THIS SHORT BREAK TO
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON BUT LATE FRIDAY TO EARLY SATURDAY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BACK TO STRONG BREEZES, PERHAPS
NEAR-GALE FORCE, PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
FURTHERMORE, FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ANTICIPATE WESTERLY WINDS
OF MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES (15 TO 21 KNOTS) TO BUILD ACROSS
WESTERN ICY STRAIT, LIKELY MOVING UP INTO THE LOWER GLACIER BAY.
THIS COULD COMPLICATE VESSELS PLANNING TO TRANSIT BARTLETT COVE.
WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.
SHORT TERM...AGP
LONG TERM...ZTK
AVIATION...BAS
MARINE...AP
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