016
FXAK67 PAJK 221826
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1026 AM AKDT SAT AUG 22 2026
UPDATE
UPDATE TO INCLUDE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE AND ADDED WIND
ADVISORY TO SKAGWAY.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
VASTLY DIFFERENT CONDITIONS ARE
ONGOING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING, WITH A FRONT CONTINUING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE PANHANDLE, A BREAK BEHIND, AND ANOTHER
FRONT MOVING IN THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT MOVING OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE IS BRINGING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AS IT PASSES THROUGH. BEHIND THIS
FRONT, MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND INTERIOR PANHANDLE IS SEEING LOW,
BROKEN CIGS JUMPING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO A MORE
SOLID VFR THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT MOVES IN AROUND 12Z
SUNDAY. THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING CONDITIONS BACK DOWN
TO MVFR TO IFR, WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. SKAGWAY WINDS
ARE GUSTING OVER 30 KTS AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS.
MARINES AND WIND ADVISORY UPDATE:
PRIMARY THREAT FOR WINDS SATURDAY IS NORTHERN LYNN CANAL, WHERE
STRONG BREEZES (22 TO 27 KNOTS) WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, DIMINISHING SATURDAY EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR SKAGWAY THROUGH 7PM SATURDAY. MARINERS MOVING AROUND
ICY STRAIT SHOULD BE AWARE OF SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 KNOTS NEAR
POINT CAROLUS INTO CROSS SOUND, WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 401 AM AKDT SAT AUG 22 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODS OF RAIN, WHICH MAY BECOME LOCALLY HEAVY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
- WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE VARIABLE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGES, AND AT
TIMES GUSTY.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...FOLLOWING STEADY RAINS
OVERNIGHT AND SOME THAT WAS LOCALLY HEAVY, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
SKAGWAY AND JUNEAU, WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
CONDITIONS. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS NOW ADVANCING EASTWARD
WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAINFALL IN ITS WAKE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
ATTEMPTS TO MOVE TOWARD THE PANHANDLE. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF
RESPITE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, BUT CLOUDINESS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT
RAIN WILL PREVAIL, PARTICULARLY WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY AND AT LEAST ONE ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSING THE AREA.
BY TONIGHT, THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL
ENTER THE CENTRAL GULF AND BRING A RETURN OF MORE PERSISTENT
RAINFALL. RAIN WILL FIRST REACH THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST BY MIDNIGHT
AND THEN OVERTAKE THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PANHANDLE DURING SUNDAY. THE
AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MAY PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
BY SUNDAY EVENING AND COULD BECOME ENHANCED IN THAT AREA AS ANOTHER
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AFFECTS THE SAME REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE AREAS MAY EXCEED 2 INCHES, WITH
LIGHTER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH. THE NBM EVEN SUGGESTS AMOUNTS OVER 3
INCHES FROM KETCHIKAN EASTWARD FOR THE 24-HR PERIOD ENDING 18Z
MONDAY. HOWEVER, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF FREDERICK SOUND, BUT THIS
WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. FOR MORE ON THE MONDAY FORECAST AND
BEYOND, PLEASE SEE THE LONG-TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE A BIT COOLER TODAY, RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF, WHILE POSSIBLY STILL REACHING
THE UPPER 60S IN THE EXTREME SOUTH. FOR SUNDAY, WE EXPECT THE
COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE GIVEN RAINFALL AND LOWER CLOUDINESS.
LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MONDAY, MOVING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY. THE MODELS HAVE COME MORE
IN LINE ON THE LOW POSITIONING, INDICATING THAT THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WILL SEE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AS THE LOW MOVES IN FROM THE WEST, THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE SHOULD
SEE THE FRONT MOVE IN FIRST BEFORE RAINFALL QUICKLY SPREADS TO THE
REST OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MOST OF THIS RAIN
WILL FALL OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, TAPERING OFF FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. EXPECTING AROUND AN
INCH AND A HALF OF RAINFALL FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
IN 24 HOURS FROM EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR A MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE
BEHIND THE FRONT, THOUGH SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THROUGH SOME OF THE INNER CHANNELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY
IN LYNN CANAL.
POTENTIAL FOR A BREAK CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR THE EARLY WEEK AS
THE LOW DIPS SOUTH, THOUGH KEEPING AN EYE ON UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW THAT MAY ALLOW FOR SHOWERS IN BC TO TRAVERSE INTO THE
PANHANDLE. THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE HAVE POTENTIAL TO
SEE SOME SUN BEHIND THIS FRONT ON MONDAY, WITH THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE JOINING IN BY TUESDAY. THE SLIGHT PERIOD OF RIDGING THAT
DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN GULF SHOULD ALLOW WINDS IN THE INNER
CHANNELS TO SWITCH TO A MORE OFFSHORE DIRECTION OVERNIGHT BEFORE
THE WEATHER BECOMES MORE ACTIVE THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING, SEA BREEZES SHOULD INCREASE
THROUGH MIDDAY AND TURN WINDS BACK ONSHORE FOR A PERIOD. DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO INCREASE ABOVE NORMAL FOR DAYS THAT
SEE THIS CLEARING, ALLOWING FOR HIGHS REACHING THE HIGH 60S TO LOW
70S ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE PANHANDLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NBM POP IS GETTING WASHED
OUT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, SO SLIGHTLY INCREASED CONFIDENCE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH THE ONSET OF THE FRONT.
AVIATION...THROUGH THE NIGHT, A FRONT HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTH
THROUGH THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING, THE
FRONT IS CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF JUNEAU TO ANGOON LINE, AND
CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD. FLIGHT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
VARIABLE FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, BUT GENERALLY LOOK TO BE
IMPROVE TO VFR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT.
AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD, EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO GENERALLY
INCREASE, AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS GENERALLY DETERIORATING UNTIL 00Z
SUNDAY. EXPECT CEILINGS AOA 3500 FEET BY 00Z FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA,
AND LEAD TO LOW VFR/MVFR CEILINGS BY 12Z SUNDAY.
MARINE...
(INNER CHANNELS): A FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS
THIS MORNING WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN LYNN CANAL. ELDRED ROCK
HAS OBSERVED SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 25 KTS. AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE, THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY. EARLY SUNDAY, ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH SE ALASKA.
BY MONDAY, THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE TOWARD PRINCE OF WALES
ISLAND. THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE THE WINDS
IN THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS, INCLUDING CLARENCE STRAIT.
EXPECTING SOUTH WINDS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE INTO SOUTHERN CLARENCE
STRAIT UP TO 25 KTS MONDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW WEAKENS, THE WINDS
IN THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DIMINISH INTO
TUESDAY.
(OUTSIDE WATERS): A FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH SE ALASKA AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO CANADA. BEHIND THE FRONT,
THERE IS ONSHORE WINDS OUT OF THE WEST IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS SUNDAY MORNING.
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ON THE SE SIDE
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SW NEAR 25 KTS, BUT DIMINISH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ318.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...ZTK
SHORT TERM...MJB
LONG TERM...ZTK
AVIATION...MUSALL
MARINE...MUSALL
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