630
FXAK67 PAJK 231256
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
456 AM AKDT SUN AUG 23 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FOR KETCHIKAN, METLAKATLA, AND HYDER LIKELY
FOR SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. NO FLOODING IS
EXPECTED A THIS TIME.
- STRONGEST WINDS, SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH WINDS AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS OVER CLARENCE
STRAIT.
- RAIN RATES AND WINDS DIMINISH LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH MONDAY/
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN RETURNS TO
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER THE WEST/CENTRAL GULF BRINGING IT'S FIRST FRONT, OF
MANY, INTO THE PANHANDLE. AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING LIGHT RAIN HAS
BEGUN FOR BOTH A FEW NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. AS THIS LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST, RAIN RATES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE.
SPECIFICALLY THE KETCHIKAN, ANNETTE ISLAND, AND HYDER AREAS ARE
LIKELY TO SEE AROUND 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN 24 HOURS, WITH
ISOLATED AREAS SEEING UP TO OR MORE THAN 4 INCHES. THERE IS EVEN A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS TO SEE THOSE HIGHER RATES
TO AROUND 4 INCHES IN 24 HOURS. HEAVIEST RAIN IS MOST LIKELY TO FALL
LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RAIN RATES DURING THAT
TIME ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE AROUND 0.15 TO 0.2 INCHES PER HOUR WITH A
CHANCE OF 0.3 INCHES PER HOUR FALLING FOR SOME LOCATIONS. HEAVIEST
RAIN RATES FOR THE SOUTH WILL DIMINISH MONDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL
THEN CONTINUE WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. OVERALL RAIN RATES WILL DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY.
DURING THIS TIME OVERALL WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. AN
EXCEPTION TO THIS INCLUDES AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE NEAR
CLARENCE STRAIT. LATE SUNDAY, AS THE MAIN FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 TO 35
MPH FOR ANNETTE ISLAND AND KETCHIKAN. MOST OTHER PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLE WILL SEE WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH OR LESS. SIMILARLY TO
RAIN RATES, OVERALL WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
TUESDAY A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE WEST COAST OF CANADA, CARRYING A WEAKENING
SURFACE LOW WITH IT. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO
BREAK APART FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, LEAVING A SHORT AND WELCOME BREAK
TUESDAY. UPSTREAM, ZONAL FLOW BECOMES BRIEFLY ESTABLISHED OVER
THE GULF, WITH A SIGNAL FOR A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING DOWN FROM
THE SOUTH- CENTRAL COAST. THESE FEATURES WILL CARRY WEST-NORTHWEST
ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA; HOWEVER, DEEP
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY SHEAR APART BEFORE REACHING THE PANHANDLE,
LIMITING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL INTO MID WEEK. ANTICIPATE LOW
CLOUDS AND MORE TYPICAL RAINFALL, WITH THE FARTHEST REACHES OF THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE LIKELY ENJOYING DRIER CONDITIONS. NEAR THE END
OF NEXT WEEK ENSEMBLES SHOW AGREEMENT ON A LARGER SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE GULF, BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAIN AND
ELEVATED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG OUR COAST INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
A GRADUAL DETERIORATION IN CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR AFTER ABOUT 22Z AND
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH IFR TO LOW MVFR CONDITIONS BECOMING
PREDOMINANT. WE WILL ALSO SEE SOME INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS FOR THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES. FARTHER NORTH, CEILINGS AT PAYA HAVE ALREADY
DROPPED TO IFR AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS. HOWEVER, MAINLY VFR TO
MVFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE NORTHEAST GULF
COAST AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS THE LOWER CLOUDINESS AND
ORGANIZED RAINFALL REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH.
MARINE
OUTER WATERS: LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF IT, WINDS WILL BECOME
MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY AND GRADUALLY INCREASE. WE STILL EXPECT A
WEAK BARRIER JET TO FORM ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST EARLY
TODAY AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING,
WINDS WILL GENERALLY TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY. AROUND DIXON
ENTRANCE, WE ALSO EXPECT A RATHER SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS TO AROUND 25-30 KTS, WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL ALSO
BUILD IN THAT AREA TO AROUND 8 FEET BEFORE SUBSIDING AFTER 15Z
MONDAY AS WINDS DECREASE.
INNER CHANNELS: ALTHOUGH THERE CONTINUE TO BE A FEW DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS, ESPECIALLY IN REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE
INCOMING SYSTEM AND FRONTAL PASSAGE, IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS WILL AFFECT MAINLY SUMNER
STRAIT SOUTHWARD. WIND GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE POSSIBLE IN CLARENCE
STRAIT TONIGHT WITH SEAS FORECAST TO BUILD TO 8 FEET. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AND FRONT PASS LATER MONDAY, WINDS AND SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS INTO MONDAY, EXCEPT
FOR PARTS OF LYNN CANAL WHERE WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ036.
SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...MJB
MARINE...MJB
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page