867
FXAK67 PAJK 241322
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
522 AM AKDT MON AUG 24 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED A THIS TIME.
- RAIN RATES AND WINDS DIMINISH LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS ANTICIPATED HEAVY RAIN RATES
OCCURRED OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY. MANY AREAS ON ANNETTE ISLAND AND NEAR KETCHIKAN SAW HIGH
HOURLY RATES AROUND 0.2 TO 0.4 INCHES IN AN HOUR. SOME HIGHER
ELEVATION SITES EVEN SAW UPWARDS OF 0.7 TO 0.8 INCHES IN ONE HOUR.
THESE HEAVIER RAIN RATES DID REACH A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN
ANTICIPATED WITH THE KAKE AIRPORT SEEING HOURLY RATES BETWEEN 0.2 TO
0.4 INCHES.
RAIN CONTINUES INTO MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA. ONCE AGAIN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR, BUT
RAIN TOTALS AND HOURLY RATES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE AS INTENSE AS
WHAT OCCURRED LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. CURRENTLY THERE IS A BIT
OF A BREAK AS JUST LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES. RAIN RATES WILL ONCE AGAIN
BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING UP TO AROUND 0.15 TO 0.2 INCHES
PER HOUR WITH LOCALIZED AREAS POSSIBLY SEEING AS HIGH AS 0.3 TO
0.4 INCHES PER HOUR. THIS SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE INTO THE HAINES AND SKAGWAY AREAS. AREAS NORTH
OF ICY STRAIT ARE MOST LIKELY TO ONLY RECEIVE LIGHT RAIN WITH
MINIMAL RAIN TOTALS THROUGH THE DAY.
RAIN RATES WILL THEN DIMINISH INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WEAKENS AND MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER WILL
THEN OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK, AND SHORT LIVED, SURFACE RIDGE IS
LOCATED OVER THE GULF. SLIGHTLY ABOVE TYPICAL HIGH TEMPERATURES, IN
THE MID TO HIGH 60S, ARE ALSO LIKELY TO OCCUR AT THAT TIME. A FEW
AREAS MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 70S, BUT THAT WILL
HIGHLY DEPEND ON OVERALL CLOUD COVER.
LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY, WHICH IS LIKELY TO DRIVE AN ACTIVE, WETTER PATTERN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW LEVEL TROUGHING, THAT LOOKS TO
BUILD OFF OF WESTERN ALASKA, AND THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT
PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BRING WIDE SPREAD RAIN TO THE PANHANDLE ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. RAIN IS LIKELY TO LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON
THURSDAY BEFORE THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS EAST. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOMETIME EARLY IN THE
DAY FRIDAY WHICH COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. CONFIDENCE IN RAIN CHANCES
THEN INCREASES LATER IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES THE PANHANDLE FROM ACROSS THE THE GULF. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE, WITH COASTAL LOCATIONS LIKELY TO RECEIVE HIGHER RAINFALL
TOTALS. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S
WITH LOW DIURNAL RANGES DUE TO CONSTANT CLOUD COVER.
AVIATION
THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE, WHERE STEADIER RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
PERSIST FROM WRANGELL AND PETERSBURG SOUTHWARD. REDUCTIONS TO IFR
AND EVEN LIFR ARE POSSIBLE EARLY TODAY, BUT SOME IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED AFTER ABOUT 18Z. HOWEVER, LOW MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER IN MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO PERIODIC MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS LATER
THIS MORNING AND PERHAPS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE CONDITIONS
RETURN TO PREVAILING VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY.
MARINE
OUTER WATERS: LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH DIXON ENTRANCE BY MIDDAY TODAY. IN ITS WAKE, WE WILL SEE
WINDS SHIFT AND DECREASE. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHEST IN AND
AROUND DIXON ENTRANCE, WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING 20 KNOTS, BUT THEY
SHOULD DECREASE RATHER QUICKLY, ESPECIALLY AFTER 15Z. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 6 FEET, LIKELY SUBSIDING A BIT BY MIDDAY. FOR TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, WIND SPEEDS OF GENERALLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL.
INNER CHANNELS: WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF CLARENCE STRAIT WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. AS LOW
PRESSURE AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM PASS LATER TODAY, WINDS AND SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS,
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS INTO
TUESDAY, EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF LYNN CANAL, WHERE SPEEDS AROUND 15
KNOTS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...AGP
AVIATION...MJB
MARINE...MJB
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