449
FXAK67 PAJK 251249
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
449 AM AKDT TUE AUG 25 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- BREAK IN RAIN EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MID 60 TO 70S.
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE NEAR MISTY FJORDS AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- RAIN RETURNS WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE BEFORE
MOVING SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
TODAY BRINGS A BREAK IN THE RAIN
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA. THIS HELPS TO BRING
CLEARER SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR TUESDAY WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S WITH AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE REACHING IN TO THE 70S. EVEN WITH A DRIER DAY ANTICIPATED,
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE
FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE, NEAR HYDER AND MISTY FJORDS,
LATE TUESDAY. THIS AREA WILL HAVE INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES AROUND 300 TO 500 J/KG AND LAPSE RATES AROUND 6 C/KM. THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE IF WE ARE TOO DRY. THIS WILL DEPEND ON
WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES AND HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE AREA. OVERALL, FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW, BUT IF ANY
STORMS DEVELOP THEY CAN QUICKLY BRING GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN.
AREAS OF FOG DID DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SEEING
VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 SM. FOG IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THOSE LOCATIONS
INTO THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE DAY TIME HEATING HELPS THE FOG
DISSIPATE. FOG IS LOOKING LIKELY AGAIN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS REMAINING ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AND LOW
CLOUD COVER ACROSS A MAJORITY OF SE AK. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS CAN
QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES MAKING TRAVEL DIFFICULT, ESPECIALLY BY
AIR AND SEA.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL REACH THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY DUE TO A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. THIS
FEATURE WILL FIRST BRING RAIN OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN WILL MOST LIKELY
REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOTALS EXPECTED.
FOR MORE DETAILS, SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING A FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING,
CAUSING RAIN SHOWERS TO MOVE FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS INITIAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT, WITH
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN 24-HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS ALONG THE COAST
RANGING FROM 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES. AMPLIFICATION BY OROGRAPHIC
LIFTING COULD CAUSE WINDWARD AREAS TO SEE TOTALS ON THE HIGHER END
OF THIS RANGE. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ALOFT AND HELPS TO
CLEAR SKIES.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT, AS A
STRONGER FRONT APPROACHES FROM A LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO
THE GULF COAST, SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WHILE GUIDANCE ON THE LOW'S PROGRESSION VARIES, HIGH
CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR 24-HOUR TOTALS OF 0.5 TO 0.75 INCHES, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR 1.25 TO 1.75 INCHES IN SOME MODELS. THE HEAVIEST
IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE COAST FROM YAKUTAT TO SITKA,
WITH SIGNIFICANT OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED IN THE
FAIRWEATHER, CHILKAT, AND COAST RANGES, LIKELY INCREASING TOTALS
IN INLAND AREAS SUCH AS JUNEAU, PETERSBURG, AND KETCHIKAN.
ADDITIONALLY, AS THE FRONT PUSHES INLAND SATURDAY, THE INCREASED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN WINDS, SPECIFICALLY IN LYNN
CANAL AND BETWEEN CAPE SUCKLING AND CAPE FAIRWEATHER, WHERE A WEAK
BARRIER JET MAY FORM AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL PERSIST IN THE UPPER 50S
AND 60S, WITH POTENTIAL TO SEE UPPER 60S FURTHER INLAND ON FRIDAY,
GIVEN AMPLE CLEARING.
AVIATION...12Z TAFS
LOW CLOUDS, RAIN, AND OCCASIONAL
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES BEFORE
GRADUALLY IMPROVING BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS
PRECIPITATION WANES. UNTIL THEN, MAINLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL. FARTHER NORTH, PERIODS OF MIST AND FOG WILL AFFECT
PAYA, PAGS, AND PAJN UNTIL ABOUT 15Z, AND THEN VFR SHOULD BECOME
PREDOMINANT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, MAINLY
AFTER 03Z, ACROSS THE MISTY FJORDS AND TOWARD HYDER, BUT THE MOST
ORGANIZED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE,
WINDS AT PAGY WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AS A SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE REST OF THE TAF SITES,
WINDS WILL REMAIN 10KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOG AND MIST
SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS MANY OF THE INNER CHANNELS AND
ADJACENT LOCALES AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN AREA OF RAIN AND
LOWER CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE TOWARD PAYA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE NEXT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.
MARINE
OUTER WATERS: WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WINDS OF LESS THAN 15
KTS TO THE REGION TODAY. BY WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND
BRING SOME INCREASE TO WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS, ESPECIALLY BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME, WE DO NOT EXPECT SUSTAINED SPEEDS
TO EXCEED 20 KT WITH THIS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
LOW PRESSURE AREA MAY AFFECT THE WATERS BY LATE WEEK.
INNER CHANNELS: WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TODAY, ALTHOUGH SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR LYNN CANAL. THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN
INCREASE IN WINDS, PARTICULARLY BY LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST SPEEDS ARE STILL LIKELY TO OCCUR
OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH LESS OF AN INCREASE FARTHER
SOUTH.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...BAS
AVIATION...MJB
MARINE...MJB
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