496
FXAK67 PAJK 251812 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1012 AM AKDT TUE AUG 25 2026
MID MORNING AND AVIATION UPDATE
ISSUED AND EXTENDED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR GUSTAVUS, AS WELL AS
CONTINUED THE MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT. NOT EXPECTING THIS FOG TO
LAST BEYOND THE NOON TIMEFRAME DUE TO ONGOING SOLAR RADIATION BOTH
AT CAPE SPENCER AND NEAR HAWK INLET/JUNEAU AREA. EXPECTING TO SEE
SOME LIGHT THERMAL TROUGHING WHICH WILL PICK UP WINDS JUST ENOUGH
TO BEGIN TO MIX OUT THE FOG LAYER AT THE SURFACE.
AVIATION
/THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TERMINALS, CURRENT LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WITH VERY LOW CIGS AND LIMITED VSBY WILL MAKE WAY FOR MUCH
IMPROVED FLIGHT CONDITIONS LATER TODAY AND THROUGH MOST OF THE
EVENING. BY NOON TODAY, EXPECT VFR ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
AS CIGS LIFT IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVERHEAD. ANOTHER
WAVE APPROACHES VIA THE NORTHERN COAST NEAR YAKUTAT OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER SIMILARLY DEGRADED FLIGHT
SITUATION WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH IFR CIGS AND PERIODS OF LIFR
POSSIBLE FOR MOST SITES.
FURTHER SOUTH, CONTINUING THE MIXTURE OF VFR AND LIFR/IFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS LINGERING SHOWERS MOVE SOUTH TO NORTH.
IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SLOWER THAN THE NORTH, REACHING INTO LOW-END
VFR AROUND 21-00Z THIS AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATING A SIMILAR TREND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TERMINALS TONIGHT,
POTENTIAL FOR LIFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS VIA LOW CIGS AND LIMITED
VISBYS REDEVELOPS BY 12-15Z WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z WEDNESDAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT WIND CONCERNS OUTSIDE OF DAILY SEABREEZE EFFECTS,
AROUND 10KTS OR LESS. NO LLWS CONCERNS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT
449 AM AKDT TUE AUG 25 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BREAK IN RAIN EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MID 60 TO 70S.
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE NEAR MISTY FJORDS AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- RAIN RETURNS WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE BEFORE
MOVING SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TODAY BRINGS A BREAK IN THE RAIN AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
OVER THE AREA. THIS HELPS TO BRING CLEARER SKIES AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY WILL REACH INTO
THE UPPER 60S WITH AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE REACHING IN TO
THE 70S. EVEN WITH A DRIER DAY ANTICIPATED, THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE, NEAR HYDER AND MISTY FJORDS, LATE
TUESDAY. THIS AREA WILL HAVE INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES AROUND 300 TO 500 J/KG AND LAPSE RATES AROUND 6 C/KM. THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE IF WE ARE TOO DRY. THIS WILL DEPEND
ON WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES AND HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE AREA. OVERALL, FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW, BUT
IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP THEY CAN QUICKLY BRING GUSTY WINDS AND
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN.
LONG TERM...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING A FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, CAUSING RAIN
SHOWERS TO MOVE FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS INITIAL
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT, WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE
IN 24-HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS ALONG THE COAST RANGING FROM 0.25
TO 0.5 INCHES. AMPLIFICATION BY OROGRAPHIC LIFTING COULD CAUSE
WINDWARD AREAS TO SEE TOTALS ON THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ALOFT AND HELPS TO CLEAR SKIES.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT, AS A
STRONGER FRONT APPROACHES FROM A LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO
THE GULF COAST, SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WHILE GUIDANCE ON THE LOW'S PROGRESSION VARIES, HIGH
CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR 24-HOUR TOTALS OF 0.5 TO 0.75 INCHES, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR 1.25 TO 1.75 INCHES IN SOME MODELS. THE HEAVIEST
IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE COAST FROM YAKUTAT TO SITKA,
WITH SIGNIFICANT OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED IN THE
FAIRWEATHER, CHILKAT, AND COAST RANGES, LIKELY INCREASING TOTALS
IN INLAND AREAS SUCH AS JUNEAU, PETERSBURG, AND KETCHIKAN.
ADDITIONALLY, AS THE FRONT PUSHES INLAND SATURDAY, THE INCREASED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN WINDS, SPECIFICALLY IN LYNN
CANAL AND BETWEEN CAPE SUCKLING AND CAPE FAIRWEATHER, WHERE A WEAK
BARRIER JET MAY FORM AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL PERSIST IN THE UPPER 50S
AND 60S, WITH POTENTIAL TO SEE UPPER 60S FURTHER INLAND ON FRIDAY,
GIVEN AMPLE CLEARING.
MARINE...
OUTER WATERS: WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WINDS OF LESS THAN 15
KTS TO THE REGION TODAY. BY WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND
BRING SOME INCREASE TO WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS, ESPECIALLY BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME, WE DO NOT EXPECT SUSTAINED SPEEDS
TO EXCEED 20 KT WITH THIS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
LOW PRESSURE AREA MAY AFFECT THE WATERS BY LATE WEEK.
INNER CHANNELS: WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TODAY, ALTHOUGH SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR LYNN CANAL. THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN
INCREASE IN WINDS, PARTICULARLY BY LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST SPEEDS ARE STILL LIKELY TO OCCUR
OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH LESS OF AN INCREASE FARTHER
SOUTH.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ320.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...NC
SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...BAS
AVIATION...VFJ/NM
MARINE...MJB
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page