947
FXAK67 PAJK 252315
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
315 PM AKDT TUE AUG 25 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- BREAK IN RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60 TO
70S.
- RAIN RETURNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
PANHANDLE, WITH RAIN SPREADING SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY.
- INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF A STRONGER AND WETTER FRONT TO
PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND INTO THE PANHANDLE BY
SATURDAY. STRONGER INNER CHANNEL AND COASTAL WINDS LIKELY.
SHORT TERM
RATHER INTERESTING SYNOPTIC SETUP, WITH A TROUGH CURRENTLY RACING
UP HECATE STRAIT, AND AN EXISTING TROUGH CURRENTLY FUNNELING
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. FURTHERMORE UP STREAM, A RIDGE
CONTINUOUSLY BUILDS OVER YAKUTAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT FOR THE
PANHANDLE. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW THESE TROUGHS INTERACT
WITH ONE ANOTHER AND HOW THAT WILL IMPACT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE ROUGHLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION, HOWEVER, WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS DOWN SOUTH EXCEEDING
60 DEGREES, MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT IS THE LIMITING FACTOR,
BUT MORE DAYTIME HEATING AND FORCING. KEEPING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FOR MISTY FJORDS IN, PRIMARILY FORCED BY TERRAIN, BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD AT THIS TIME. FINALLY, KEPT FOG
CHANCES IN FOR THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND DID NOT EXTEND IT INTO
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. SURFACE MARINE WINDS EXCEEDING 10 KNOTS
LOOK TO KEEP ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT AT BAY FOR THE TIME BEING.
AS WE MOVE INTO WEDNESDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL HAVE
MOVED OUT INTO CANADA, WITH A BERING SEA ORIGINATING JOLT OF
ENERGY, RESULTING IN A FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.
AGAIN, EXPECTING LARGELY LIGHT RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM, WITH
POSSIBLY ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS. HOWEVER, WITH THE SPEED OF THE
FRONT, AND THE LACK OF BOTH WARM TEMPERATURES AND GULF MOISTURE,
TEMPERING DOWN EXPECTATIONS AT THIS TIME. WHAT IS MORE INTERESTING
IS POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA AS
TODAY. DEFINITELY LESS CONFIDENT THAT SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING
WILL PROMOTE SUITABLE LAPSE RATES AND CAPE, BUT SYNOPTIC FORCING
FROM BOTH A SHORTWAVE MOVING UP FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE
SOUTH OF HAIDA GWAII AND THE FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
SHOWS THAT FORCING IS AVAILABLE.
GOING INTO THURSDAY, PRIMARILY THIS IS THE DRY OUT DAY, WITH A
RIDGE BUILDING BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT AND CLEARING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH.
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ACTIVE WEATHER DOMINATES THE LONG TERM AS WE WATCH A STRONG
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECTING A
BREAK THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE THE PANHANDLE
BEGINS TO CLOUD OVER THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO REACH THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST DURING THIS TIME AND
CONTINUE INLAND OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHERE IT WILL LINGER UNTIL
IT STARTS TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AR INFLUENCE. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
FOR HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS, WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PEAK OF THE FRONT SATURDAY. THE HEAVIEST IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED
ALONG THE COAST FROM YAKUTAT TO SITKA, WITH SIGNIFICANT OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED IN THE FAIRWEATHER, CHILKAT, AND COAST
RANGES, LIKELY INCREASING TOTALS IN INLAND AREAS SUCH AS JUNEAU,
PETERSBURG, AND KETCHIKAN. WITH THE LONGER DURATION OF THIS EVENT,
SOME LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH 3.5 TO 4 INCHES IN THE 36 HOURS FROM
FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY, AS THE FRONT PUSHES INLAND SATURDAY, THE INCREASED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN WINDS THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS
AND BETWEEN CAPE SUCKLING AND CAPE FAIRWEATHER, WHERE A WEAK
BARRIER JET MAY FORM AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST. INCREASING
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WINDS IN LYNN CANAL ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH STRONG BREEZES TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING
LOW END GALE FORCE AS THE FRONT MAKES LANDFALL. THE REST OF THE
CHANNELS SHOULD SEE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FRESH BREEZES AS
THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL PERSIST IN
THE UPPER 50S AND 60S, WITH POTENTIAL TO SEE UPPER 60S FURTHER
INLAND ON FRIDAY, GIVEN AMPLE CLEARING.
AVIATION
/THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, FLIGHT CONDITIONS HAVE
SLOWLY IMPROVED TO GENERAL VFR TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS
AOA 2KFT THROUGH THE EVENING WILL ONCE AGAIN DIMINISH TO AOB
2000FT AS THICK CLOUD DECK REDEVELOPS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WITH SLIGHTLY MORE COVERAGE THAN LAST NIGHT INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. ANTICIPATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO
DETERIORATE AFTER 09Z TONIGHT TO PREDOMINATE IFR ONCE AGAIN WITH
CIGS AOB 1500FT WITH PERIODS OF LIFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF FOG TO
DEVELOPING BETWEEN 10Z TO 16Z. IMPROVEMENT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
SLOW INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT EXPECTING GENERAL VFR TO MVFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL BY 21Z WEDNESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT
WIND CONCERNS, ANY SEABREEZE INFLUENCED WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET TO NEAR CALM AND VARIABLE THROUGH 12Z TONIGHT. NO
SIGNIFICANT LLWS CONCERNS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
OUTER WATERS: TONIGHT, NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST FROM CAPE
EDGECUMBE TO DIXON ENTRANCE WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH
BREEZES AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF IS FORCED EAST AND DISSIPATES.
AT THE SAME TIME, WINDS ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST FROM CAPE
SUCKLING TO ICY CAPE WILL ALSO INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
KENAI PENINSULA DROPS INTO THE GULF. AS THIS LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST,
WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
BETWEEN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THE
LOW WILL START TO DISSIPATE AND WINDS WILL LESSEN, RETURNING TO
PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWESTERLIES BY THURSDAY MORNING.
INNER CHANNELS: AS CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON, SEA BREEZES HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP. MEANWHILE,
WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN CHANNELS REMAIN WEAKER, AT AROUND 5 KNOTS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIE DOWN GOING INTO THE EVENING, THOUGH PARTS
OF LYNN CANAL AND CLARENCE STRAIT COULD CONTINUE TO SEE ELEVATED
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS DUE TO PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCING. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES WEDNESDAY, CHANNELS FROM FREDERICK SOUND
SOUTHWARD ARE EXPECTED TO SEE PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY WINDS.
NORTHWARD CHANNELS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS, WITH A LOWER LIKELIHOOD OF SEA BREEZES DOMINATING DURING THE
DAY DUE TO MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. WINDS ON THURSDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AS THE LOW DISSIPATES
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM...ZTK
AVIATION...VFJ/NM
MARINE...BAS
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