970
FXAK67 PAJK 261215
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
415 AM AKDT WED AUG 26 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN RETURNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
PANHANDLE, WITH RAIN SPREADING SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY.
- INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF A STRONGER AND WETTER FRONT TO
PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND INTO THE PANHANDLE BY
SATURDAY. STRONGER INNER CHANNEL AND COASTAL WINDS LIKELY.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH THURSDAY/
FOG IS ONCE AGAIN OUR MAIN IMPACT
EARLY THIS MORNING. FOG HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE,
SPECIFICALLY AREAS NEAR FREDERICK SOUND AND SUMNER STRAIT. FOG IS
ALSO STARTING TO FORM OVER CHATHAM STRAIT AND STEPHENS PASSAGE.
THESE AREAS ARE SEEING DENSE FOG AT TIMES WITH VISIBILITIES AS LOW
AS 1/4 MILE. THESE AREAS OF FOG, DENSE AT TIMES, ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING.
ON ANOTHER NOTE, LIGHT RAIN HAS BEGUN IN YAKUTAT AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA AS THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY. AT THE SAME TIME, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, TO THE SOUTH
OF THE PANHANDLE, MOVES NORTHWARD. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR HYDER, KETCHIKAN, AND MISTY FJORDS
TO BECAUSE OF THIS LOW. THE TIMING OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WAS
SLIGHTLY MOVED FORWARD BASED ON WHEN AND AREA OF HIGHER VORTICITY
PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. OTHERWISE, THE END TIME
REMAINED THE SAME AS UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW, BUT IF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WINDS CAN QUICKLY INCREASE AND A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR.
LOOKING AHEAD, THE FIRST TROUGH MENTIONED MOVES SOUTH AND DISSIPATES
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE SECOND LOW THAT WAS MENTIONED
REMAINS, BEFORE MOVING TO THE EAST. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY BECAUSE OF THE SECOND LOW. AS THAT LOW THEN MOVES
EASTWARD, A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING TAKES ITS PLACE LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BREAK IN THE RAIN BEFORE MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN RETURNS FRIDAY. SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ACTIVE WEATHER DOMINATES THE LONG TERM AS WE WATCH A STRONG
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECTING A
BREAK THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE THE PANHANDLE
BEGINS TO CLOUD OVER THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO REACH THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST DURING THIS TIME AND
CONTINUE INLAND OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHERE IT WILL LINGER UNTIL
IT STARTS TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AR INFLUENCE. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
FOR HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS, WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PEAK OF THE FRONT SATURDAY. THE HEAVIEST IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED
ALONG THE COAST FROM YAKUTAT TO SITKA, WITH SIGNIFICANT OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED IN THE FAIRWEATHER, CHILKAT, AND COAST
RANGES, LIKELY INCREASING TOTALS IN INLAND AREAS SUCH AS JUNEAU,
PETERSBURG, AND KETCHIKAN. WITH THE LONGER DURATION OF THIS EVENT,
SOME LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH 3.5 TO 4 INCHES IN THE 36 HOURS FROM
FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY, AS THE FRONT PUSHES INLAND SATURDAY, THE INCREASED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN WINDS THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS
AND BETWEEN CAPE SUCKLING AND CAPE FAIRWEATHER, WHERE A WEAK
BARRIER JET MAY FORM AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST. INCREASING
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WINDS IN LYNN CANAL ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH STRONG BREEZES TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING
LOW END GALE FORCE AS THE FRONT MAKES LANDFALL. THE REST OF THE
CHANNELS SHOULD SEE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FRESH BREEZES AS
THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL PERSIST IN
THE UPPER 50S AND 60S, WITH POTENTIAL TO SEE UPPER 60S FURTHER
INLAND ON FRIDAY, GIVEN AMPLE CLEARING.
AVIATION...12Z TAFS
A WEAK TROUGH WILL PUSH TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
GULF COAST THIS MORNING AND BRING LOWER CLOUDS AND MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN TO PAYA WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHEAST TO A PASI TO PAJN LINE BY 21Z AND THEN
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS IT PROGRESSES FARTHER SOUTH. THE LOWEST
CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WITH
THIS WEATHER FEATURE, PERHAPS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, FOG AND MIST HAVE ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED EARLY THIS
MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF FREDERICK SOUND, SUMNER
STRAIT, AND FROM PAPG TO PAWG. VISIBILITIES IN THESE AREAS COULD
DROP AS LOW AS A QUARTER OF A MILE THROUGH 16Z-17Z, WITH A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT BY 18Z-19Z. VFR WILL DOMINATE FOR THE AFTERNOON, BUT
PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION, AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY SOUTH OF
THE PANHANDLE PUSHES NORTH, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES.
MARINE
OUTER WATERS: WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH
TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE, WINDS WILL SHIFT, AND AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DISSIPATES AND THE GRADIENT FURTHER RELAXES, WIND SPEEDS
WILL AVERAGE 15 KT OR LESS. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BRING INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, WITH OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE.
INNER CHANNELS: WIND SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO AVERAGE
ABOUT 10 KT TODAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. AS
IT PASSES, WE DO EXPECT SOME VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION. THE
NORTHWARD CHANNELS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE A SEA BREEZE TODAY DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER, BUT PARTS OF LYNN CANAL COULD STILL SEE
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15 KT DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. BY
THURSDAY, GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED, BEFORE A
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ326-327-
329.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...ZTK
AVIATION...MJB
MARINE...MJB
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