998
FXAK67 PAJK 262357
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
357 PM AKDT WED AUG 26 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
PANHANDLE, WITH RAIN SPREADING SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING.
- RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF A WETTER FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF AND INTO THE PANHANDLE BY SATURDAY. STRONGER
INNER CHANNEL AND COASTAL WINDS LIKELY.
SHORT TERM
/THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A
WEAKENING FRONT PUSHES INLAND. LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA AS THIS FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING
AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME, AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE, TO THE SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE, MOVES NORTHWARD. THIS
WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE. NO
CHANGES TO THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, STILL THINKING A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR HYDER AND MISTY FJORDS INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW, BUT IF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WINDS CAN QUICKLY INCREASE AND A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR. LOOKING AHEAD, THE FIRST FRONT
MENTIONED MOVES SOUTH AND DISSIPATES INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
OVER THE PANHANDLE WHILE THE SECOND AFOREMENTIONED LOW REMAINS
NEAR STATIONARY BEFORE MOVING TO THE EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PERIODS OF LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY BEFORE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF RIDGING MOVES IN ALOFT BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A BREAK IN THE RAIN BEFORE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
RETURNS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER FOR THURSDAY, GETTING INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE PANHANDLE BEFORE WARMING AGAIN
DURING THAT BRIEF BREAK ON FRIDAY BACK INTO THE LOW 60S TO LOW
70S.
LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ACTIVE WEATHER DOMINATES THE LONG TERM AS WE WATCH A STRONG
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FRIDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUE INLAND OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHERE IT WILL STEADILY
SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK AR INFLUENCE, THOUGH TOTALS HAVE DECREASED
THROUGH THE MORE RECENT MODEL RUNS. STILL LOOKING AT MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLE SEEING 1 TO 2 INCHES ON SATURDAY, WITH CLOSER TO 0.5 TO
1.5 INCHES ON SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE FAIRWEATHER,
CHILKAT, AND COAST RANGES, LIKELY INCREASING TOTALS IN INLAND
AREAS SUCH AS JUNEAU, PETERSBURG, AND KETCHIKAN. WITH THE LONGER
DURATION OF THIS EVENT, SOME LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH 3 INCHES OVER
THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND.
ADDITIONALLY, AS THE FRONT PUSHES INLAND SATURDAY, WINDS BETWEEN
CAPE SUCKLING AND CAPE FAIRWEATHER WILL STRENGTHEN TO 25 TO 30 MPH,
WHERE A WEAK BARRIER JET FORMS AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST.
INCREASING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SOUTHERLY WINDS
IN LYNN CANAL ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 25 TO 30 MPH THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING 35 MPH
AS THE FRONT MAKES LANDFALL THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
REST OF THE CHANNELS SHOULD SEE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 20 TO 25
MPH WINDS INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY AND DECREASE AGAIN INTO
SUNDAY. CERTAIN INNER CHANNEL HOT SPOTS, SUCH AS FREDERICK SOUND
INTO STEPHENS PASSAGE AND AROUND POINT COUVERDEN, WILL SEE THE
HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE, WITH PERIODS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WINDS
POSSIBLE. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE INLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, CLARENCE STRAIT SHOULD FEEL A PERIOD OF THESE STRONGER
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AS WELL.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY, KEEPING THE
PANHANDLE RELATIVELY WET. ANOTHER FRONT WITH DECENT AGREEMENT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE PANHANDLE MONDAY, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
THE IN THE POSITION OF THE LOW. LEANING TOWARDS THE EC RUNS WITH
KEEPING THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF MONDAY BEFORE IT TRAVELS
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY, WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TUESDAY AND INTO THE EXTENDED RANGE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL PERSIST IN THE UPPER 50S AND
60S.
AVIATION
/THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
THE WEAK TROUGH CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE NE GULF COAST WILL
CONTINUE MOVING E/SE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT BRINGING
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR CIGS. THE NE GULF COAST DOWN INTO
THE CROSS SOUND/ICY STRAIT AREA WILL SEE THE WORST OF THESE FLYING
CONDITIONS, WITH CIGS DOWN TO 500-1500 FT AND VIS TO 3-5 SM,
BEFORE RETURNING TO HIGH END MVFR TO VFR AFTER IT PASSES. MORE
INLAND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, INCLUDING PAHN AND PAGY,
WILL SEE RAIN CONTINUE WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS, BUT
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH END MVFR CIGS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WITH ANY CLOUDS BELOW 2000 FT STAYING SCT. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN IMPROVING BY AROUND 12Z AND STAY HIGH END MVFR TO VFR
THROUGH THE MORNING, HOWEVER CHANCES FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT IS POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ALONG LYNN
CANAL AND ICY STRAIT. HIGHER CHANCES OF FOG FOR YAKUTAT AND THE NE
GULF COAST DOWN TO CROSS SOUND, WITH CIGS BETWEEN 400-800 FT AND
VIS DOWN TO 3-5 SM OVERNIGHT AFTER THE RAIN STOPS, IMPROVING AGAIN
THROUGH THE MORNING. RAIN AND LOWER CIGS OF 2000-3500 FT WILL
PUSH INTO ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR BETWEEN 02Z AND 05Z, EXTENDING DOWN
TO SITKA BY AROUND 08Z TONIGHT. THIS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
BEFORE FALLING APART OVERNIGHT, CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO CLEAR UP
BETWEEN 14-17Z FROM N-S. THIS LINGERING FRONT OVER JUNEAU
SOUTHWARD MAY BRING DOWN CIGS TO AOB 1500 FT AND VIS DROPS TO 4-5
SM LATE TONIGHT WITH THE CALM WINDS.
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL LARGELY REMAIN CLEAR OF THIS MAIN
BAND OF MOISTURE, BUT A LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD. THE RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS INTO TONIGHT, BRINGING A DROP TO MVFR TO IFR CIG AND
VIS CONDITIONS LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
DETERIORATING FLYING CONDITIONS PAST 06Z FOR FREDERICK SOUND
SOUTHWARD WITH CIGS DOWN TO 400-1000 FT OVERNIGHT DUE TO FOG
POTENTIAL RETURNING IN THE LATE EVENING AND FROM THE SHOWERS
KEEPING CONDITIONS LOW-END MVFR DOWN TO IFR AS THE BAND PASSES
THROUGH. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT FROM 20Z ONWARDS
FROM W TO E WITH CIGS RISING TO 2000-3000 FT.
MARINE
OUTER WATERS: A LOW PRESSURE CENTER CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE
GULF TODAY, BRINGING SE TO E WINDS. ALONG THE COAST, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH 10-15KTS WITH A 10% CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS
REACHING OVER 18KTS. GUSTIER WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE INCOMING
FRONT WHICH IS LIKELY TO IMPACT MAINLY THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL
COASTAL WATERS AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH. OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY, WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND BECOME LESS THAN 15KTS AND VARIABLE.
BY THURSDAY MORNING, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A NW DIRECTION
AND SIT AROUND 10KTS WITH FUNNELING AROUND PROMINENT CAPES LIKELY
UP TO 15KTS. OVERNIGHT THURSDAY, WINDS LOOK TO SHIFT TO THE WEST
DUE TO ANOTHER INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING HIGHER WINDS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THEY WILL
BE ABOVE 20KTS. WINDS ABOVE 23KTS (SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA) COULD BE
SEEN ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST DUE TO A BARRIER JET.
INNER CHANNELS: WINDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THERE IS NOT
A STRONG DRIVING FORCE OF WINDS. AS THE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF
TRACKS SOUTH, WINDS ARE LIKELY TO SHIFT OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE
CHANGES IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW
THE SAME TREND OF WINDS BELOW 10KTS AND BE MAINLY VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE DUE TO A HIGHER CHANCE OF
CLOUD COVER. THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SEA
BREEZES, ESPECIALLY IN LYNN CANAL, DUE TO THE HIGHER CHANCE FOR
CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. LYNN CANAL COULD REACH UP TO 10-15KTS N
DUE TO HIGHER PRESSURE OVER CANADA AND LOWER PRESSURE MOVING
SOUTHWARD. A STRONG NORTH/SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO SET UP
OVER THE PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT INCOMING SYSTEM. WIND,
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH, COULD REACH UP TO 20KTS THROUGH THE DAY
WITH LYNN CANAL REACHING UP OVER 25KTS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...NM
LONG TERM...ZTK
AVIATION...VFJ
MARINE...AGP
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