238
FXAK67 PAJK 271846
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1046 AM AKDT THU AUG 27 2026
UPDATE
TO THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWING 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST THIS MORNING.
AVIATION
WEAK FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL KEEP LIGHT
RAIN AND MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FROM FREDERICK SOUND SOUTHWARD
INTO THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME PERIODS OF LOWERED
CIGS AND VIS DOWN TO LIFR ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDDAY,
PARTICULARLY FOR PETERSBURG DOWN TO WRANGELL AS CLOUDS AOB 400 FT
LINGER FROM OVERNIGHT, BEFORE BEGINNING TO LIFT INTO THE DAY.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW BEHIND THIS FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, KEEPING
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. OCCASIONAL
DROPS TO IFR ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL DUE TO INTERMITTENT LOWERED
CIGS AS THE SHOWERS PASS THROUGH. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR
BETWEEN THESE SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING.
BEGINNING AROUND 8-12Z TONIGHT, WITH THE CLEARING ALREADY
BEGINNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND EXPECTED FOR THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LATER IN THE EVENING, AND WITH THE LIGHT WINDS
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT, LOW CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOG ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE. GENERALLY EXPECTING CIGS
100-500 FT AND VIS DROPS TO 1-4SM OVERNIGHT IN AREAS WITH FOG OR
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THESE LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM GUSTAVUS DOWN TO PETERSBURG AND WRANGELL
THROUGH 14-16Z. THIS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
BACK TO LARGELY VFR BY THE TAIL END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 454 AM THURSDAY AUG 27 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BEFORE A RIDGE OF HIGHER
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GULF.
- LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL BRING A BREAK IN THE RAIN, BUT
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FOG TO DEVELOP.
- INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF A STRONGER AND WETTER FRONT TO
PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND INTO THE PANHANDLE BY
SATURDAY. STRONGER INNER CHANNEL AND COASTAL WINDS LIKELY.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE ARE TWO DIFFERENT DISTURBANCES THAT ARE CONTINUING TO ALLOW
FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS OVER SE AK THIS MORNING. THE FIRST IS
LOCATED OVER THE GULF AND THE SECOND LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE
PANHANDLE. DUE TO THESE TWO DIFFERENT AREAS OF INTEREST, RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. BOTH OF THESE AREAS ARE DRIVEN BY AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT TODAY
AND INTO FRIDAY. AS THAT UPPER LEVEL LOW THEN MOVES TO THE SOUTH,
A SHORT LIVED RIDGE WILL TAKE ITS PLACE. THIS RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR
A BREAK DAY OVER THE PANHANDLE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS BREAK WILL LIKELY BRING AREAS OF FOG BACK TO MANY
AREAS OF THE PANHANDLE. AS OF RIGHT NOW, THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE,
FROM ICY STRAIT SOUTH TO SUMNER STRAIT, LOOKS THE MOST LIKELY TO
SEE THIS FOG DEVELOP. IF FOG DOES DEVELOP, IT CAN QUICKLY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES MAKING TRAVEL DIFFICULT. ANY FOG THAT OCCURS IS
LIKELY TO DISSIPATE BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THEN CLEARER SKIES
WILL BE THE STORY FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO
LOW 70S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BREAK IN THE RAIN BEFORE MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN RETURNS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SEE THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER DOMINATES THE LONG TERM AS WE WATCH A STRONG
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FRIDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUE INLAND OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHERE IT WILL STEADILY
SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK AR INFLUENCE, THOUGH TOTALS HAVE DECREASED
THROUGH THE MORE RECENT MODEL RUNS. STILL LOOKING AT MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLE SEEING 1 TO 2 INCHES ON SATURDAY, WITH CLOSER TO 0.5 TO
1.5 INCHES ON SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE FAIRWEATHER,
CHILKAT, AND COAST RANGES, LIKELY INCREASING TOTALS IN INLAND
AREAS SUCH AS JUNEAU, PETERSBURG, AND KETCHIKAN. WITH THE LONGER
DURATION OF THIS EVENT, SOME LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH 3 INCHES OVER
THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND.
ADDITIONALLY, AS THE FRONT PUSHES INLAND SATURDAY, WINDS BETWEEN
CAPE SUCKLING AND CAPE FAIRWEATHER WILL STRENGTHEN TO 25 TO 30 MPH,
WHERE A WEAK BARRIER JET FORMS AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST.
INCREASING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SOUTHERLY WINDS
IN LYNN CANAL ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 25 TO 30 MPH THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING 35 MPH
AS THE FRONT MAKES LANDFALL THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
REST OF THE CHANNELS SHOULD SEE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 20 TO 25
MPH WINDS INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY AND DECREASE AGAIN INTO
SUNDAY. CERTAIN INNER CHANNEL HOT SPOTS, SUCH AS FREDERICK SOUND
INTO STEPHENS PASSAGE AND AROUND POINT COUVERDEN, WILL SEE THE
HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE, WITH PERIODS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WINDS
POSSIBLE. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE INLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, CLARENCE STRAIT SHOULD FEEL A PERIOD OF THESE STRONGER
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AS WELL.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY, KEEPING THE
PANHANDLE RELATIVELY WET. ANOTHER FRONT WITH DECENT AGREEMENT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE PANHANDLE MONDAY, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
THE IN THE POSITION OF THE LOW. LEANING TOWARDS THE EC RUNS WITH
KEEPING THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF MONDAY BEFORE IT TRAVELS
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY, WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TUESDAY AND INTO THE EXTENDED RANGE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL PERSIST IN THE UPPER 50S AND
60S.
AVIATION...MOISTURE BAND STALLS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. MOST OF THE
CLOUD COVER IS BELOW VFR (3000 FT) WITH A HANDFUL OF AIRPORTS
SHOWING CEILINGS AT 500 OR LOWER. PATCHY FOG IN THE YAKUTAT AND AT
SKAGWAY. ANTICIPATE, THAT CLOUDS SHOULD BE BREAKING UP, AND
THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THE THURSDAY AND THEN INTO FRIDAY
BRINGING IN SOME LARGER BREAKS, AND WITH CLEARER SKIES OVERNIGHT
THINK THAT FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT.
MARINE...
OUTER WATERS: OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
AND BECOME LESS THAN 15KTS AND VARIABLE. BY THURSDAY MORNING, WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A NW DIRECTION AND SIT AROUND 10KTS WITH
FUNNELING AROUND PROMINENT CAPES LIKELY UP TO 15KTS. OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY, WINDS LOOK TO SHIFT TO THE WEST DUE TO ANOTHER INCOMING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING HIGHER WINDS
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THEY WILL BE ABOVE 20KTS. WINDS ABOVE
23KTS (SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA) COULD BE SEEN ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST DUE TO A BARRIER JET.
INNER CHANNELS: WINDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THERE
IS NOT A STRONG DRIVING FORCE OF WINDS. THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW THE SAME TREND OF WINDS BELOW 10KTS AND BE MAINLY VARIABLE
IN DIRECTION IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE DUE TO A HIGHER CHANCE OF
CLOUD COVER. THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SEA
BREEZES, ESPECIALLY IN LYNN CANAL, DUE TO THE HIGHER CHANCE FOR
CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. LYNN CANAL COULD REACH UP TO 10-15KTS N
DUE TO HIGHER PRESSURE OVER CANADA AND LOWER PRESSURE MOVING
SOUTHWARD. A STRONG NORTH/SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO SET UP
OVER THE PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT INCOMING SYSTEM. WIND,
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH, COULD REACH UP TO 20KTS THROUGH THE DAY
WITH LYNN CANAL REACHING UP OVER 25KTS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-642-643-652-661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...ZTK
AVIATION...CONTINO
MARINE...BEZENEK
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