566
FXAK67 PAJK 032329
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
329 PM AKDT THU SEP 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH PRESSURE OUT IN THE GULF WILL BRING WARM, DRY AND MAINLY
CLEAR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
- DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S, WITH INTERIOR LOCATIONS ACROSS
POW ISLAND LIKELY REACHING 80S.
- A RETURN TO A COOLER, MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED BY
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE QUIET SHORT
TERM CONTINUES AS RIDGING IN THE GULF CONTINUES TO BRING DRY,
CLEAR WEATHER TO THE PANHANDLE. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
INNER CHANNELS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WHERE
THEY WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD,
NOT COUNTING ANY LOCAL SEA BREEZES. LYNN CANAL MAY SEE SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS MIDDAY SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS
INTO THE EASTERN GULF. CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLE THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO START
TO MOVE BACK INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL
OUTER COAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BEGINNING TO CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
WITH THE CLEAR SKIES, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
INTO THE 70S FRIDAY, REACHING THE HIGH 70S IN THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. PARTS OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
80 DEGREES, AND A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH MIDDAY.
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 70S FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
SATURDAY, BUT MAY ONLY REACH INTO THE HIGH 60S FOR THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO MOVE IN. LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
REACHING INTO THE 30S IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
OVERNIGHT, AND LIKELY WILL AGAIN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. THE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER SATURDAY SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO THE LOW 40S SATURDAY NIGHT. FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND PRINCE OF
WALES ISLAND THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, THOUGH WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY WHEN THE SUN COMES UP. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
SMALL POCKET OF A MARINE LAYER TO DEVELOP OFF THE COAST AS WELL,
BUT THIS MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE TOMORROW NIGHT.
LONG TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FOR SUNDAY, ONSHORE FLOW
MAY STRENGTHEN A BIT AS A MARINE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE FULLY
ESTABLISHED. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A FEW MORE AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE, PARTICULARLY FROM CAPE EDGECUMBE
NORTHWARD. UNDER INCREASED CLOUDINESS, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
BE SOMEWHAT COOLER.
THE PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE BY LABOR DAY AS THE NEXT ORGANIZED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA. THE CANADIAN MODEL
STILL WANTS TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SOONEST, BUT
IT HAS COME CLOSER IN TIMING WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF. WE HAVE
HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION AFTER ABOUT 12Z-18Z MONDAY, EXCEPT OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
WETTER AND COOLER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH IT
IS STILL A BIT EARLY TO DISCUSS RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR MON-TUE,
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AROUND 2 INCHES FOR THE NORTHEAST GULF
COAST TO ABOUT 0.75" IN THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
FARTHER SOUTH.
AVIATION
PREDOMINANTLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH FRIDAY.ELEVATED
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE OFFSHORE AND ALONG N-S INNER CHANNELS,
HOWEVER THEY CONTINUE TO DECLINE THROUGH TONIGHT. SEA BREEZES FOR
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WILL LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING,
BEFORE BEGINNING TO ALSO DIMINISH QUICKLY BY TONIGHT. MOST AREAS
WILL RETURN TO CALM WINDS AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNING, BEFORE SEA BREEZES OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AGAIN TOMORROW DURING THE DAYTIME.
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT IN AREAS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT, WITH THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE REMAINING FOR PAPG DOWN TO PAWG, AND FOR PAKW
ALONG WITH OTHER AREAS ON POW BLOCKED FROM THE ELEVATED NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING DOWN CLARENCE STRAIT AND OFFSHORE.
MARINE LAYER DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE OUTER COASTLINE,
HOWEVER IT WILL BE RESTRAINED BY THE 15 TO 20 KT WINDS STILL OVER
THE GULF JUST OFFSHORE. SPECIFICS OF THE EXPECTED VIS RESTRICTIONS
FROM THIS FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE STILL NOT CONFIDENT, AS DRY AIR
AND LINGERING WINDS MAY MAKE ANY FOG STAY RATHER SHALLOW/PATCHY
WITH LITTLE VIS RESTRICTION (6SM). DRY ENOUGH SURFACE CONDITIONS
MAY EVEN INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT ENTIRELY, PARTICULARLY FOR
YAKUTAT AND ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR.
MARINE
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): AREAS OF STRONGER WINDS REMAIN OVER
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER LYNN CANAL
AND PORTIONS OF STEPHENS PASSAGE. IN THESE AREAS, NORTHERN WINDS
AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS REMAIN AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING. MOST OTHER AREAS ACROSS THE INSIDE PASSAGE
CONTINUE TO SEE WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KTS. THIS IS DUE TO AN INVERTED
TROUGH DIRECTLY OVER THE PANHANDLE CREATING AN INCREASED PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THIS HAS BROUGHT STRONGER WINDS TO THE NORTH TO SOUTH
FACING CHANNELS. AS THE RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO SE
AK, THIS INVERTED TROUGH WILL BREAK DOWN ALLOWING THE INSIDE WATERS
TO RELAX. WITH CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES, THE MAIN
IMPACT OVER THE INSIDE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZES TO
DEVELOP. ONCE THESE CALMER WINDS BEGIN, THEY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE INSIDE UNTIL THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA AT
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): AN AREA OF HIGHER PRESSURE HAS
SET UP OVER THE GULF AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR PREDOMINATELY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KTS
FOR A MAJORITY OF THE GULF. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF, ALONG THE COAST, WHERE INCREASED WINDS NEAR 20 KTS AND SEAS OF
6 TO 8 FT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY, THOSE WINDS AND
SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO SUBSIDE AND DIMINISH. THEN WINDS WILL REMAIN
ON THE LIGHTER SIDE UNTIL THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE GULF AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM AKDT FRIDAY FOR AKZ328.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-661-662.
SHORT TERM...ZTK
LONG TERM...MJB
AVIATION...CONTINO
MARINE...EAB
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