687
FXAK67 PAJK 040604
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1004 PM AKDT THU SEP 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH PRESSURE OUT IN THE GULF WILL BRING WARM, DRY AND MAINLY
CLEAR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
- DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S, WITH INTERIOR LOCATIONS ACROSS
POW ISLAND LIKELY REACHING 80S.
- A RETURN TO A COOLER, MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED BY
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE QUIET SHORT
TERM CONTINUES AS RIDGING IN THE GULF CONTINUES TO BRING DRY,
CLEAR WEATHER TO THE PANHANDLE. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
INNER CHANNELS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WHERE
THEY WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD,
NOT COUNTING ANY LOCAL SEA BREEZES. LYNN CANAL MAY SEE SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS MIDDAY SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS
INTO THE EASTERN GULF. CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLE THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO START
TO MOVE BACK INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL
OUTER COAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BEGINNING TO CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
WITH THE CLEAR SKIES, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
INTO THE 70S FRIDAY, REACHING THE HIGH 70S IN THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. PARTS OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
80 DEGREES, AND A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH MIDDAY.
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 70S FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
SATURDAY, BUT MAY ONLY REACH INTO THE HIGH 60S FOR THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO MOVE IN. LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
REACHING INTO THE 30S IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
OVERNIGHT, AND LIKELY WILL AGAIN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. THE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER SATURDAY SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO THE LOW 40S SATURDAY NIGHT. FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND PRINCE OF
WALES ISLAND THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, THOUGH WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY WHEN THE SUN COMES UP. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
SMALL POCKET OF A MARINE LAYER TO DEVELOP OFF THE COAST AS WELL,
BUT THIS MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE TOMORROW NIGHT.
LONG TERM
/ SUNDAY TO THURSDAY / THE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN
GULF STARTS TO GIVE WAY ON SUNDAY ALONG A SHORT WAVE TO MOVER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE NORTHEAST
GULF COAST. EXPECT TO SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION, TO SPREAD IN
FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF BREAK LATE MONDAY TO TUESDAY AND THEN ANOTHER
SYSTEM TO MOVE IN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CONTINUING PRECIP FRIDAY
INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF AND INTO THE PANHANDLE.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR. LOCALIZE WINDS ALONG LYNN CANAL COULD LEAD TO SOME
BREEZY DAYS FOR LIKE HAINES AND SKAGWAY.
AVIATION....UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA IS LEADING TO VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS, PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. YAKUTAT AND PETERSBURG HAVE THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF
FOG DEVELOPMENT, BUT IT APPEARS POSSIBLE AREAWIDE, INCLUDING IN
JUNEAU.
AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER ANY FOG DISSIPATES BY MID-MORNING
THURSDAY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CANADA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN,
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DECREASE, SO WINDS THURSDAY WILL NOT
BE AS STRONG AS THEY WERE WEDNESDAY. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15
KTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA FRIDAY.
MARINE
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): AREAS OF STRONGER WINDS REMAIN OVER
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER LYNN CANAL
AND PORTIONS OF STEPHENS PASSAGE. IN THESE AREAS, NORTHERN WINDS
AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS REMAIN AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING. MOST OTHER AREAS ACROSS THE INSIDE PASSAGE
CONTINUE TO SEE WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KTS. THIS IS DUE TO AN INVERTED
TROUGH DIRECTLY OVER THE PANHANDLE CREATING AN INCREASED PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THIS HAS BROUGHT STRONGER WINDS TO THE NORTH TO SOUTH
FACING CHANNELS. AS THE RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO SE
AK, THIS INVERTED TROUGH WILL BREAK DOWN ALLOWING THE INSIDE WATERS
TO RELAX. WITH CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES, THE MAIN
IMPACT OVER THE INSIDE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZES TO
DEVELOP. ONCE THESE CALMER WINDS BEGIN, THEY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE INSIDE UNTIL THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA AT
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): AN AREA OF HIGHER PRESSURE HAS
SET UP OVER THE GULF AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR PREDOMINATELY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KTS
FOR A MAJORITY OF THE GULF. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF, ALONG THE COAST, WHERE INCREASED WINDS NEAR 20 KTS AND SEAS OF
6 TO 8 FT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY, THOSE WINDS AND
SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO SUBSIDE AND DIMINISH. THEN WINDS WILL REMAIN
ON THE LIGHTER SIDE UNTIL THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE GULF AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM AKDT FRIDAY FOR AKZ328.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ661-662.
SHORT TERM...ZTK
LONG TERM...BEZENEK
AVIATION...MUSALL
MARINE...EAB
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