450
FXAK67 PAJK 041814
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1014 AM AKDT FRI SEP 4 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWING 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TODAY,
WITH PREDOMINANTLY CALM WINDS THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME AREAS STILL SEEING SOME NW-LY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS FROM THE
LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. THIS GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN INTO THE DAY, ALLOWING FOR SOME SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT IN SKAGWAY AND HAINES MIDDAY, AS THE STRONGER N-S
GRADIENT PRIOR DAYS HAVE KEPT THESE SOUTHERLY BREEZES FROM
DEVELOPING. OTHER AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN SEE BREEZES DEVELOP THE
PAST FEW CLEAR SKY DAYS WILL AGAIN SEE 10 TO 15 KT SEA BREEZES
BEGIN TO KICK UP THIS MORNING WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME CALM AGAIN BY TONIGHT.
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE A MARINE LAYER MOVING IN
OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COASTLINE, BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR THE NE GULF
COAST DOWN TO BARANOF ISLAND SEEING CIGS MOVE IN OF 800-2000 FT
BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z. THE TIMING OF WHEN THIS MARINE LAYER PUSHES
IN AND THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IS STILL
NOT CONFIDENT AT THIS TIME. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS IN PAYA AND
THE COASTLINE SEEING THESE LOW STRATUS DECKS AND LOW-END MVFR
CONDITIONS BEGIN AFTER 12Z, WITH THE CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS
INCREASING LATER INTO THE MORNING.
WHETHER THE MARINE LAYER WILL PUSH INTO CROSS SOUND FAR ENOUGH TO
IMPACT PAGS AND ICY STRAIT IS STILL NOT FULLY CERTAIN DEPENDING ON
THE DIRECTION OF THE ONSHORE FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF
MOVES CLOSER. LIKEWISE, PASI MAY NOT SEE THE MARINE LAYER MOVE IN
FULLY UNTIL LATER IN THE MORNING, IF THE LOW STRATUS DECK SITS JUST
OFFSHORE AND VISIBLE OUTSIDE OF SITKA SOUND.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 527 AM FRI SEP 4 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH PRESSURE OUT IN THE GULF WILL BRING WARM, DRY AND MAINLY
CLEAR WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.
- DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S, WITH INTERIOR LOCATIONS ACROSS
POW ISLAND LIKELY REACHING 80S.
- A RETURN TO A COOLER, MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED BY
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/ SHORT RANGE FORECAST IS
RATHER QUIET WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN OFFSHORE
FLOW, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, AND WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST TODAY WITH MORE
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 70S FOR MANY AREAS. THE HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS OUT FOR PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND TODAY WHERE MANY
AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER MAY REACH 80 THIS AFTERNOON.
CHANGE IS COMING THOUGH. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A
LARGE AREA OF MARINE LAYER LOW CLOUDS ADVANCING E ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF. IT WILL LIKELY REACH THE OUTER COAST FROM CAPE
EDGECOMBE NORTH AND WEST TONIGHT BRINGING OVERCAST SKIES AND
POSSIBLE FOG AS IT COMES IN. OVERALL FLOW WILL START TO SHIFT TO
MORE ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH AROUND THAT TIME ALLOWING THE
CLOUDS TO FLOW INTO WESTERN ICY STRAIT AND POSSIBLY PERIL STRAIT
BY SATURDAY MORNING. CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW INTO SATURDAY MAY NOT
CAUSE THE CLOUDS TO RETREAT ALL THAT MUCH ON SATURDAY. THEY WILL LIKELY
PERSIST IN CROSS SOUND SATURDAY BEFORE ADVANCING INTO THE INNER
CHANNELS ONCE MORE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW
ALSO MEANS A COOLER MARINE AIR MASS IN THE INNER CHANNELS SO HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HIGH AS THEY
WILL BE ON FRIDAY EVEN THOUGH MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY STILL SEE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT FOR MOST AREAS. HOWEVER, AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES WILL BE ACTIVE WHICH COULD REACH 20 KT AT TIMES IN PLACES
LIKE CROSS SOUND, ICY STRAIT, AND SKAGWAY.
LONG TERM.../SUNDAY TO THURSDAY/ THE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN
GULF STARTS TO GIVE WAY ON SUNDAY ALONG A SHORT WAVE THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE NORTHEAST
GULF COAST. EXPECT TO SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD IN
FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF BREAK LATE MONDAY TO TUESDAY AND THEN ANOTHER
SYSTEM TO MOVE IN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CONTINUING PRECIP FRIDAY
INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF AND INTO THE PANHANDLE.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR. LOCALIZED WINDS ALONG LYNN CANAL COULD LEAD TO SOME
BREEZY DAYS FOR HAINES AND SKAGWAY.
AVIATION.../THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING/...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. CALM CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING AS OVERNIGHT WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED
TO AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS. WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION CONTINUING TO WEAKEN, CLEAR SKIES AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL
BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE, DRIVING ONSHORE WINDS UP TO 15 KTS.
MANY AREAS WERE LIMITED IN FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT, DESPITE CALM
WINDS AND STABLE CONDITIONS, DUE TO A DRIER SURFACE LAYER. MARINE
LAYER FORMATION ALSO REMAINED LIMITED DUE TO SUSTAINED 15 TO 20 KT
WINDS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. HOWEVER, AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
CLOSER AND COASTAL WINDS EASE SOME, THE POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED
VIS/CIG FLIGHT IMPACTS WILL INCREASE. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ALONG THE NE GULF COAST AND
EXTENDING INTO THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
MARINE...
OUTER WATERS: HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS TODAY
WITH THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS AROUND 145W. THAT RIDGE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
E AND WEAKEN INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF THE W
OR NW AT AROUND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS ARE LIKEWISE SOMEWHAT LOW
MOSTLY 7 FT OR LESS WITH THE HIGHER SEAS IN THE FAR SE PART OF THE
GULF. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FOR EITHER WINDS OR SEAS EVEN WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER SWELL (AROUND
4 FT) COMING IN FROM THE W OVER THE WEEKEND. ONLY OTHER CONCERN
MIGHT BE SOME REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY DUE TO MARINE LAYER LOW
CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD AS IT
MOVES EAST.
INNER CHANNELS: WINDS IN THE INNER CHANNELS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT
AND FAVOR A N OR NW DIRECTION AT THE MOMENT. SEA BREEZES ARE THE
MAIN HIGHER WIND GENERATOR WITH AREAS OF 15 TO 20 KT POTENTIALLY
DEVELOPING FROM THESE CIRCULATIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS
AND EVENINGS, MAINLY IN ICY STRAIT, CROSS SOUND, AND NORTHERN
LYNN. N AND W WIND DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED OVER THE
WEEKEND (EXCEPTION WILL BE LYNN CANAL WHICH WILL SWITCH TO A
SOUTHERLY SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON) WITH SPEEDS OF 15 KT OR LESS.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OF 4 FT OR LESS FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ328.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ661.
SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...BEZENEK
AVIATION...CONTINO
MARINE...EAL
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