544
FXAK67 PAJK 042349
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
349 PM AKDT FRI SEP 4 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH PRESSURE OUT IN THE GULF WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH A RETURN OF COOLER ONSHORE MARINE AIR.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE NORTH WITH HIGHS
IN THE IN UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. ACROSS THE SOUTH, STILL MILD FOR
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S, THEN TRENDING A
COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
- A RETURN TO A COOLER, MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK
WITH MULTIPLE FRONTS PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE GULF SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST
WITH A RETURN OF MARINE LAYER INTO NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND
NORTHERN PANHANDLE BY SATURDAY, SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE
MARINE LAYER STRATUS CROSSING THE 140W LINE AND CREEPING TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST, INCLUDING YAKUTAT. ONSHORE FLOW HAS
BROUGHT COOLER MARINE AIR INTO YAKUTAT AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE,
WITH TEMPERATURES NOTICEABLE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY IN THE 60S.
FURTHER SOUTH, NORTHERLY OUTFLOW CONTINUES WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 60S TO 70S, WITH SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS ON POW REACHING
THE LOW 80S. AS THE ONSHORE PUSH INCREASES ON SATURDAY, MARINE
LAYER STRATUS WILL EXPAND INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH DRIZZLE POSSIBLE FOR YAKUTAT, SITKA AND INTO ICY
STRAIT CORRIDOR TOWARDS JUNEAU. THE MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPAND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY, BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL STILL PREVAIL, ALTHOUGH SOME DRIZZLE ALONG POW
COASTLINE WILL BE POSSIBLE. BY LATER SUNDAY, A FRONT EXTENDING
FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WILL
APPROACH THE NORTHEAST GULF AND BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN,
WITH LIGHT RAIN EXPANDING INTO NORTHERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT.
A SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
SEASONABLE DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FROM
FREDERICK SOUND ON NORTH. ACROSS THE SOUTH, DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE
STILL MILD ON SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S, BUT
COOLING A BIT ON SUNDAY DUE TO MORE MARINE INFLUENCE, WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM.../MONDAY TO THURSDAY/
THE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN
GULF STARTS TO GIVE WAY ON SUNDAY ALONG A SHORT WAVE THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE NORTHEAST
GULF COAST. EXPECT TO SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD IN
FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF BREAK LATE MONDAY TO TUESDAY AND THEN ANOTHER
SYSTEM TO MOVE IN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CONTINUING PRECIP FRIDAY
INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF AND INTO THE PANHANDLE.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR. LOCALIZED WINDS ALONG LYNN CANAL COULD LEAD TO SOME
BREEZY DAYS FOR HAINES AND SKAGWAY.
AVIATION.../THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING/...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. CALM CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING AS OVERNIGHT WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED
TO AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS. WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION CONTINUING TO WEAKEN, CLEAR SKIES AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL
BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE, DRIVING ONSHORE WINDS UP TO 15 KTS.
MANY AREAS WERE LIMITED IN FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT, DESPITE CALM
WINDS AND STABLE CONDITIONS, DUE TO A DRIER SURFACE LAYER. MARINE
LAYER FORMATION ALSO REMAINED LIMITED DUE TO SUSTAINED 15 TO 20 KT
WINDS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. HOWEVER, AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
CLOSER AND COASTAL WINDS EASE SOME, THE POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED
VIS/CIG FLIGHT IMPACTS WILL INCREASE. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ALONG THE NE GULF COAST AND
EXTENDING INTO THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT, WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING AGAIN INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE MAIN AVIATION
CONCERN IS A MARINE LAYER MOVING IN OVERNIGHT ALONG THE OUTER
COASTLINE. THIS WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR THE NE GULF COAST DOWN TO
BARANOF ISLAND TO SEE MVFR CIGS. THIS LOW STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED
TO STAY AROUND 1000 TO 2000 FT, GRADUALLY APPROACHING THE COAST
BETWEEN 06 AND 10Z TONIGHT, AND BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE
OUTER COASTLINE DOWN TO LOW-END MVFR / IFR BEGINNING 12-14Z AND
LASTING INTO THE MORNING.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWER ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE ONSET OF
THESE LOWERED CIGS REACHING LAND AREAS, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED ON PAYA AND THE NE GULF COAST SEEING IFR CIGS AOB 800 FT
FROM 14Z TO 18Z. STILL REMAINING UNCERTAINTY ON IF MARINE LAYER
WILL FULLY MOVE INTO ICY STRAIT / PAGS AREA OVERNIGHT, OR ONLY
MAKE IT AS FAR AS CROSS SOUND BY MORNING, TO WHICH THEY MAY NOT
BEGIN TO SEE MVFR CONDITIONS BEGIN UNTIL AROUND 18Z. THIS CLOUD
LAYER WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST BY MORNING INTO THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD, BUT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MORE HIGH-END
MVFR AS CIGS OF 800 TO 1500 FT LARGELY LIFT TO BETWEEN 2500 AND
3500 FT.
MARINE
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): WINDS ACROSS THE INSIDE CHANNELS REMAIN ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE BELOW 15 KTS. WIND DIRECTIONS REMAIN MAINLY
NORTHWESTERLY, BUT NORTHERN AREAS, THROUGH LYNN CANAL, ARE STARTING
TO SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR
THAT AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GULF. THE MAIN IMPACT
FOR THE INSIDE WATERS IS THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED WINDS
DUE TO SEA BREEZES. THESE SEA BREEZES ARE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER
LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY SEA BREEZE THAT DEVELOPS CAN
BRING GUSTY CONDITIONS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS WHAT IS MENTIONED
ABOVE, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE GULF. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THE MARINE LAYER, THAT IS
OBSERVED OVER THE GULF VIA SATELLITE, TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
AND REACH THE GULF COAST. THIS MARINE LAYER CAN LOWER CEILINGS AND
REDUCE VISIBILITIES. IF THE MARINE LAYER REACHES THE COAST, IT IS
MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT YAKUTAT BAY, CROSS SOUND, AND SITKA SOUND. IT
COULD MOVE SLIGHTLY MORE EASTERLY EACH DAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REACHES SE AK BY LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE GULF CONTINUING TO ALLOW FOR PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY
AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF. THESE WINDS MAINLY REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 15 KTS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE GULF. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS
IS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN GULF, ALONG THE COAST, WHERE INCREASED WINDS
NEAR 20 KTS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. ON
SUNDAY, THOSE WINDS AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO SUBSIDE AND
DIMINISH. THEN WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE UNTIL THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE GULF AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
ONLY OTHER CONCERN MIGHT BE SOME REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY DUE TO
MARINE LAYER LOW CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RIDGE
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. THIS MARINE LAYER IS ALSO ANTICIPATED TO BREAK
DOWN AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REACHES THE AREA.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ328.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ641-661.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...BEZENEK
AVIATION...CONTINO
MARINE...EAB
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