007
FXAK67 PAJK 050615
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1015 PM AKDT FRI SEP 4 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH PRESSURE OUT IN THE GULF WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH A RETURN OF COOLER ONSHORE MARINE AIR.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE NORTH WITH HIGHS
IN THE IN UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. ACROSS THE SOUTH, STILL MILD FOR
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S, THEN TRENDING A
COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
- A RETURN TO A COOLER, MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK
WITH MULTIPLE FRONTS PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE GULF SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST
WITH A RETURN OF MARINE LAYER INTO NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND
NORTHERN PANHANDLE BY SATURDAY, SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE
MARINE LAYER STRATUS CROSSING THE 140W LINE AND CREEPING TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST, INCLUDING YAKUTAT. ONSHORE FLOW HAS
BROUGHT COOLER MARINE AIR INTO YAKUTAT AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE,
WITH TEMPERATURES NOTICEABLE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY IN THE 60S.
FURTHER SOUTH, NORTHERLY OUTFLOW CONTINUES WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 60S TO 70S, WITH SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS ON POW REACHING
THE LOW 80S. AS THE ONSHORE PUSH INCREASES ON SATURDAY, MARINE
LAYER STRATUS WILL EXPAND INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH DRIZZLE POSSIBLE FOR YAKUTAT, SITKA AND INTO ICY
STRAIT CORRIDOR TOWARDS JUNEAU. THE MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPAND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY, BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL STILL PREVAIL, ALTHOUGH SOME DRIZZLE ALONG POW
COASTLINE WILL BE POSSIBLE. BY LATER SUNDAY, A FRONT EXTENDING
FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WILL
APPROACH THE NORTHEAST GULF AND BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN,
WITH LIGHT RAIN EXPANDING INTO NORTHERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT.
A SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
SEASONABLE DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FROM
FREDERICK SOUND ON NORTH. ACROSS THE SOUTH, DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE
STILL MILD ON SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S, BUT
COOLING A BIT ON SUNDAY DUE TO MORE MARINE INFLUENCE, WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM
/ MONDAY TO FRIDAY / A SHORT WAVE MOVES TO THE SE AK
AREA WITH A FRONTAL BAND MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND
THEN THE PANHANDLE THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC THE FLOW PATTERN WEATHER IS LOOKING
MORE ZONAL FROM THE JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS TO THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. SO EXPECT THE CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW TO MAINTAIN THE RAIN ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION.
24 HOUR RAIN TOTALS IN THE 3/4 INCH TO 1.5 INCH RANGE, AND
MODELS BEGINNING TO SUGGEST A WAVE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH
AMOUNTS FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE PANHANDLE, FOR THE
THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA HAS KEPT FLIGHT
CONDITIONS VFR ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA. MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT,
AND BRING MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO YAKUTAT, SITKA,
AND GUSTAVUS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR INLAND THESE
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT, THOUGH. WITH HOW DRY THE AIR
MASS IN PLACE IS, FOG FROM RADIATIONAL COOLING IS GENERALLY NOT
EXPECTED, BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR JUNEAU.
A FRONTAL BAND CURRENTLY NEAR KODIAK ISLAND WILL CONTINUE MOVING
THE RIDGE EASTWARD. THIS MEANS THAT MARINE LAYER CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO KEEP MVFR CEILINGS FOR YAKUTAT, SITKA, AND GUSTAVUS
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. AS THE RIDGE IN THE GULF MOVES
EASTWARD, CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LOWERING FOR JUNEAU BY
06Z SUNDAY. FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD UNTIL AFTER THE TAF
PERIOD ENDS.
MARINE
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): WINDS ACROSS THE INSIDE CHANNELS REMAIN ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE BELOW 15 KTS. WIND DIRECTIONS REMAIN MAINLY
NORTHWESTERLY, BUT NORTHERN AREAS, THROUGH LYNN CANAL, ARE STARTING
TO SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR
THAT AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GULF. THE MAIN IMPACT
FOR THE INSIDE WATERS IS THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED WINDS
DUE TO SEA BREEZES. THESE SEA BREEZES ARE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER
LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY SEA BREEZE THAT DEVELOPS CAN
BRING GUSTY CONDITIONS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS WHAT IS MENTIONED
ABOVE, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE GULF. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THE MARINE LAYER, THAT IS
OBSERVED OVER THE GULF VIA SATELLITE, TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
AND REACH THE GULF COAST. THIS MARINE LAYER CAN LOWER CEILINGS AND
REDUCE VISIBILITIES. IF THE MARINE LAYER REACHES THE COAST, IT IS
MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT YAKUTAT BAY, CROSS SOUND, AND SITKA SOUND. IT
COULD MOVE SLIGHTLY MORE EASTERLY EACH DAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REACHES SE AK BY LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE GULF CONTINUING TO ALLOW FOR PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY
AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF. THESE WINDS MAINLY REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 15 KTS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE GULF. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS
IS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN GULF, ALONG THE COAST, WHERE INCREASED WINDS
NEAR 20 KTS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. ON
SUNDAY, THOSE WINDS AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO SUBSIDE AND
DIMINISH. THEN WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE UNTIL THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE GULF AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
ONLY OTHER CONCERN MIGHT BE SOME REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY DUE TO
MARINE LAYER LOW CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RIDGE
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. THIS MARINE LAYER IS ALSO ANTICIPATED TO BREAK
DOWN AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REACHES THE AREA.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ641-661.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...BEZENEK
AVIATION...MUSALL
MARINE...EAB
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