540
FXAK67 PAJK 051334
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
534 AM AKDT SAT SEP 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH PRESSURE OUT IN THE GULF WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH A RETURN OF COOLER ONSHORE MARINE AIR.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE NORTH WITH HIGHS
IN THE IN UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. ACROSS THE SOUTH, STILL MILD FOR
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S, THEN TRENDING A
COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
- A RETURN TO A COOLER, MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK
WITH MULTIPLE FRONTS PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
SHORT TERM
/THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/ A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN GULF REMAINS THE MAIN DRIVER OF THE SHORT RANGE
FORECAST TODAY. HOWEVER IT WILL NOT BE AROUND FOR MUCH LONGER. THE
RIDGE IS SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE EAST AND WEAKENING AS IT GOES.
ALREADY, OVERALL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE HAS TURNED
MORE ONSHORE COMPARED TO THE OFFSHORE FLOW IT WAS A FEW DAYS AGO
AND A MORE MARINE AIR MASS IS GETTING PUSHED INTO THE AREA. THIS
IS MOST EVIDENT BY THE SHIELD OF MARINE LAYER CLOUDS THAT HAS
SPREAD ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE GULF BY THIS POINT AND IS INVADING
THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS (CROSS SOUND, W ICY STRAIT AND PERIL
STRAIT) AND NE OUTER COAST THIS MORNING. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
MEANWHILE STILL HAS A SLIGHT OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO THE OVERALL
FLOW IN THAT REGION, SO IS STILL MOSTLY CLEAR.
THE MORE MARINE AIR MASS AND WEAKENING RIDGE MEANS SEVERAL THINGS
FOR THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FIRST, ONSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND
REINFORCING THE SHIFT TO THE COOLER AND MOISTER AIR MASS. SECOND
THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER
THE INNER CHANNELS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS (MAINLY AT NIGHT).
THE CLOUDS WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO CROSS SOUND, W ICY STRAIT,
AND PERIL STRAIT, AS WELL AS THE OUTER COAST NORTH OF SITKA TODAY,
BUT EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO PUSH FARTHER INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT
(TAKING OVER MOST OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL CHANNELS) AND THEN
SWALLOWING THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THESE
CLOUDS COULD BE LOW ENOUGH FOR FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS (ESPECIALLY
ON THEIR INITIAL PUSH INTO AN AREA), AND AREAS AROUND CROSS SOUND
AND ICY STRAIT COULD SEE SOME DRIZZLE DEVELOP AS WELL SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE CLOUDS MOVE IN AND THICKEN. THIRD, THE MARINE AIR
MASS AS WELL AS THE INCREASING CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN A STEP DOWN
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK TO MORE NORMAL READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.
TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE WEEKEND, MORE SIGNS OF CHANGE APPEAR
WITH THE INITIAL EFFECTS FROM AN INCOMING FRONT BEGINNING TO
AFFECT THE GULF WATERS AND NE GULF COAST WEST OF CAPE FAIRWEATHER.
LIGHT RAIN WILL BE STARTING UP AT YAKUTAT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WILL SHOW A SWITCH TO S AND SE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL ONLY TOP OUT AT AROUND 20 KT OR SO AS THE
FRONT IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE.
LONG TERM
/ MONDAY TO FRIDAY / A SHORT WAVE MOVES TO THE SE AK
AREA WITH A FRONTAL BAND MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND
THEN THE PANHANDLE THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC THE FLOW PATTERN WEATHER IS LOOKING
MORE ZONAL FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS TO THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. SO EXPECT THE CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW TO MAINTAIN THE RAIN ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION.
24 HOUR RAIN TOTALS IN THE 3/4 INCH TO 1.5 INCH RANGE, AND MODELS
BEGINNING TO SUGGEST A WAVE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH AMOUNTS
FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE PANHANDLE, FOR THE THURSDAY
TO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION.../THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING/
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS ARE
THE PRIMARY AVIATION HAZARD TODAY, MAINLY IMPACTING THE OUTER
COAST FROM THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PANHANDLE. THESE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE MORNING, BRINGING LOW-END
MVFR TO IFR CIGS (DOWN TO 200 FT AT TIMES, AS SEEN OVERNIGHT) TO
YAKUTAT, ELFIN COVE, PELICAN, AND SITKA. AS A TRAILING FRONTAL
BAND PUSHES THE RIDGE EASTWARD, A LOW STRATUS DECK BETWEEN 1000
AND 2000 FT WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY. THE MARINE LAYER COULD PUSH FURTHER INLAND THIS MORNING
INTO CROSS SOUND, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THAT LOW CLOUDS
WILL EXTEND EAST OF GUSTAVUS, WHERE CIGS MAY HOVER AROUND 1500 FT
BEFORE DAYBREAK. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, MARINE LAYER
CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXTEND EASTWARD UNTIL LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT, GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, THOUGH
REMAINING VFR, AS THE MARINE LAYER PUSHES FURTHER IN.
MEANWHILE, LOCATIONS BEYOND THESE IMPACTED AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT SEA BREEZES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SKAGWAY, WHERE
SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD STRENGTHEN INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER IN THE DAY.
MARINE
GULF WATERS...CHANGE IS IN THE WORKS FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA AS
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND A
NEW FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. WINDS THAT WILL INITIALLY BE WESTERLY ON SATURDAY WILL
START TO SWITCH TO A S AND SE DIRECTION ON SUNDAY AS THE NEW
FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE W. THIS FRONT IS NOT VERY STRONG AS WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY TOP OUT AROUND 20 KT. WINDS TURN BACK TO THE
SW ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE FIRST FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY HIGH WITH MAX COMBINED SEAS
TOPPING OUT AROUND 7 TO 8 FT MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN GULF WITH A
LOW SW SWELL OF AROUND 3 TO 4 FT. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGE IS
EXPECTED FOR WAVES AND SWELL HEIGHTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS EVEN
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH. ONLY OTHER CONCERN FOR THE GULF
WATERS IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LOWER VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS. THAT WILL MAINLY BE A
CONCERN FOR SATURDAY THOUGH.
INNER CHANNELS...RATHER QUIET WEATHER FOR THE INNER CHANNELS WITH
MOSTLY N AND W WINDS TO 15 KT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND SEAS OF 3
TO 4 FT OR LESS. LYNN CANAL IS THE EXCEPTION WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY
WIND DIRECTION. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE VARIOUS SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS IN THE AFTERNOONS BUT
WILL MAINLY BE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON MARINE LAYER CLOUDS FROM THE GULF WILL HAVE SPREAD OVER
MOST OF THE PANHANDLE (PARTICULARLY THE NORTH) SEVERELY HAMPERING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY STRONG SEA BREEZES AT THAT TIME. OTHERWISE
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS (DOWN TO 1 MILE OR SO) FROM MARINE FOG WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERN ESPECIALLY LATE AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE
MORNING WHERE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS HAVE INVADED THE AREA.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ641-661.
SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...BEZENEK
AVIATION...BAS
MARINE...EAL
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