414
FXAK67 PAJK 052332
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
332 PM AKDT SAT SEP 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH PRESSURE OUT IN THE GULF WILL WEAKEN SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH A RETURN OF COOLER ONSHORE MARINE AIR,
WITH POCKETS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE NORTH WITH HIGHS
IN THE IN UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. ACROSS THE SOUTH, STILL MILD FOR
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S, THEN TRENDING A
COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
- A RETURN TO A COOLER, MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK
WITH MULTIPLE FRONTS PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE OUT IN THE
GULF IS SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST, WITH ONSHORE
FLOW NORTH OF THE HIGH PUSHING THE MARINE LAYER FURTHER INTO
NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN
SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY. LOW STRATUS, FOG
AND POCKETS OF DRIZZLE ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED FROM YAKUTAT ON DOWN
INTO CROSS SOUND AND WESTERN ICY STRAIT, PERIL STRAIT AND TOWARDS
SITKA AND APPROACHING WESTERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND. FOG AND MARINE
LAYER STRATUS WILL EXPAND TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND COASTAL COMMUNITIES. THE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT AND THE MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPAND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY, BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL STILL PREVAIL, ALTHOUGH SOME DRIZZLE COULD BUILD
ALONG POW COASTLINE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE ALEUTIANS WILL APPROACH THE NORTHEAST
GULF AND BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN FOR YAKUTAT BY SUNDAY NIGHT,
WITH LIGHT RAIN BUILDING INTO THE PANHANDLE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT BUILDS ONSHORE, CONTINUING
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
STEADIER RAIN WILL GENERALLY FALL NORTH OF SUMNER STRAIT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT, WITH SPOTTIER RAIN TOWARDS KETCHIKAN, ANNETTE, HYDER
AND POW. AS THE LOW PUSHES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AK, ANOTHER FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING HEAVIER RAIN BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
AN OVERALL COOLING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, WITH
SEASONABLE DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FROM FREDERICK
SOUND ON NORTH. ACROSS THE SOUTH, MID TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S, BUT TRENDING DOWNWARD BEGINNING TOMORROW WITH
THE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND MARINE INFLUENCE, WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A SHORT WAVE MOVES TO THE
SE AK AREA WITH A FRONTAL BAND MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST
ON TUESDAY AND THEN THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC THE
FLOW PATTERN WEATHER IS LOOKING MORE ZONAL FROM THE JUST SOUTH OF
THE ALEUTIANS TO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEK. SO EXPECT THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW TO MAINTAIN THE RAIN
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION. 24 HOUR RAIN TOTALS IN THE 3/4 INCH
TO 1.5 INCH RANGE, AND MODELS BEGINNING TO SUGGEST A WAVE A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH WITH AMOUNTS FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
PANHANDLE, FOR THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INLAND PARTS
OF THE PANHANDLE, WHILE THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE LOW
STRATUS DECK ALONG THE NE GULF COASTLINE DOWN TO SITKA AND OVER
CROSS SOUND, WHICH CONTINUES TO KEEP LOWER CIGS INTO THIS
EVENING. CIGS 2000 TO 3500 FT ACROSS THIS AREA WILL GRADUALLY DROP
TO AOB 1000 TO 2000 FT. THE EXCEPTION REMAINS FOR THE NE GULF
COAST AND PAYA WITH IFR/LIFR LASTING INTO THE EVENING, WITH CIGS
400 TO 1000 FT AND VIS OF 2 TO 4SM TONIGHT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO
LAST NIGHT ARE EXPECTED WITH A LONG DURATION OF LIFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT, WITH POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE AND FOG DEVELOPMENT TO BRING
VIS DOWN TO 1 MILE OR LESS AGAIN.
THE LOW STRATUS DECK WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INLAND THROUGH THE NIGHT,
REACHING PAJN AND SITTING ACROSS MUCH OF ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR BY
08-10Z THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT, THE MARINE LAYER WILL ALSO BEGIN TO PUSH IN
AGAINST THE WESTERN COAST OF POW IN THE MORNING. THESE AREAS WILL
LIKELY SEE HIGHER CIGS THAN THE OUTER COASTLINE, BUT STILL REMAIN
MVFR INTO THE MORNING. THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE WILL SEE LARGELY
VFR CONDITIONS, WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME AREAS SEEING PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST ONSHORE
FLOW.
MARINE
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF GRADUALLY
WEAKENS AND A NEW FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TOWARD THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WINDS THAT WILL INITIALLY BE WESTERLY ON
SATURDAY WILL START TO SWITCH TO A S AND SE DIRECTION ON SUNDAY AS
THE NEW FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE W. THIS FRONT IS NOT VERY STRONG
AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY TOP OUT AROUND 20 KT, THOUGH A SMALL
AREA OF WINDS UP TO 25 KT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST OF KAYAK
ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SW ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE FIRST FRONT PASSES THROUGH. SEAS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY HIGH WITH MAX COMBINED SEAS TOPPING
OUT AROUND 7 TO 8 FT MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN GULF WITH A LOW SW
SWELL OF AROUND 3 TO 4 FT. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGE IS EXPECTED
FOR WAVES AND SWELL HEIGHTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS EVEN WITH THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH. ONLY OTHER CONCERN FOR THE GULF WATERS WILL
BE LOWER VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG ASSOCIATED WITH THE MARINE LAYER
CLOUDS THAT WILL PUSH FURTHER INTO THE INNER CHANNELS TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
INNER CHANNELS...RATHER QUIET WEATHER FOR THE INNER CHANNELS WITH
MOSTLY N AND W WINDS TO 15 KT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND SEAS OF 3
TO 4 FT OR LESS. LYNN CANAL IS THE EXCEPTION WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY
WIND DIRECTION FROM A STOUT SEA BREEZE COMING UP TAIYA INLET, WITH
SKAGWAY SEEING ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 30 KT THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE VARIOUS SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE LARGELY ABSENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS MARINE LAYER CLOUDS FROM THE GULF WILL HAVE
SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE PANHANDLE (PARTICULARLY THE NORTH)
SEVERELY HAMPERING SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS (DOWN TO 1 MILE OR SO) FROM MARINE FOG WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN AGAIN ESPECIALLY LATE AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING
SUNDAY WHERE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS HAVE INVADED THE AREA.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ641-652-661-672.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...BEZENEK
AVIATION...CONTINO
MARINE...STJ/EAL
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